How fast could Usain Bolt run the mile?

If he ran at 100m pace he would run about 3 flat

Are you guys insane??? One of the word's best junior 400m runners and possibly the greatest 100m/200m runner ever and you think his mile is the same as any random high school kid running track? You really think because he sprints he has no aerobic fitness at all?

I'm putting him at 4:10 for the mile, and 16 minutes or under for a 5k. Those of you who said 22 minutes should just stop posting.

idiots wrote:

I'm putting him at 4:10 for the mile

If he had trained distance running his whole life instead of sprinting, yes, he might have broken 4:10. But as he stands now, 5:10.

Look how relaxed he is in the heats of major championships when he cruises to 10s 100m's. He could EASILY jog 11-12s per 100 all day long

People saying Bolt can run a 4:20 are the same people that think Rupp can go 10.8. Rupp does a lot more sprint work than Bolt does distance too, so that would be more likely.

Bolt would be lucky to break 5 and Rupp may be able to run 11:5 FAT.

Yes, he'd easily smash Yiannis Kourous 24 hours mark. 100 m in 12s every 30s, with light walking breaks inbetween.

There was a soccer player back in HS who went out for track in the sprints. He had around 50s flat 400m ability and decided to run a 1500m for laughs. Ran around 4:40-4:45 I believe, which equates to around 5 flat for a mile.

Bolt is significantly faster in the 400 but probably has less endurance than most soccer players. I'd put him in the 4:40s for an all out effort. If one day he started training specifically for the mile I'm sure he'd be down to 4:1X within 3 months, and possibly break 4 eventually.

Tyrone. wrote:

There was a soccer player back in HS who went out for track in the sprints. He had around 50s flat 400m ability and decided to run a 1500m for laughs. Ran around 4:40-4:45 I believe, which equates to around 5 flat for a mile.

Bolt is significantly faster in the 400 but probably has less endurance than most soccer players. I'd put him in the 4:40s for an all out effort. If one day he started training specifically for the mile I'm sure he'd be down to 4:1X within 3 months, and possibly break 4 eventually.

No he wouldn't break 4. I think he would run 4:20 with training, 4:50 without. Its like you people forget how hard this sh*t is.

Alright, I can see that this debate has thrown logic from the discussion. Many of these arguments make about as much sense as taking a piss into a wind storm. My goal is to spread already known exercise science knowledge, applying it to becoming closer to answering the OP questions. Any other exercise scientists, please feel free to pick apart the below argument.

Note: Obviously the only real answer to test the original question will be to have Usain Bolt actually race a mile on television. Probable cost = millions $ USD, which makes this question not practical.

WITHOUT TRAINING: U. Bolt’s race mile would most likely look like this…..Takes off comfortably hard the first lap in ~47 (sprinters do not have any idea how to pace laps, let alone miles). His first 400 meters spikes up his blood lactate levels, decreasing his body’s pH due to a linear increase of by-products such H+ ions. It has been proven that a 100 meter sprint in under 10 seconds (speeds in excess of 27 mph), requires an oxygen consumption (VO2 Max) of greater than 140 ml O2 per kg, which is far greater than the highest ever measured in a human (Noakes et al., 2003).

Not only to include the fact that Bolt primary does anaerobic training so his capillary density is going to be very close to that of an untrained average human. Bolt’s GTO and Muscle Spindles bias are tuned to very high tension. He will subconsciously continue to over activate these systems under increasing fatiguing due to his lower recruitment threshold of IIa and IIb motor units. Bolt does not have many small diameter efferent axons. My hypothesis is that U. Bolt does not finish the race under 6 minutes, if he finishes at all.

WITH TRAINING: Now the physiological factors of distance running come into play. These factors are running economy, integrated neuromuscular recruitment model, and running efficiency. Keep in mind that the 1500m racing distance is 80% aerobic/20% anaerobic contributions (Hill et al., 1999). We are discussing a highly anaerobic athlete (100m/200m) over the course of a mile, where the dominate energy system is aerobic. During training, Bolt’s height becomes a disadvantage due to his relative heavy body weight. Too many miles will result in injury, therefore delaying his oxidative fiber development.

I hypothesize that U. Bolt has the potential to run in the range of ~6:00-5:30 maximum. Here is why. His 100m and 200m times are very strong and consistent, suggesting that U. Bolt has a very high % of IIb fibers within his major primary running muscles. When looking at his 400m lifetime PR, it is slow RELATIVE to his 100m/200m PRs. If Ventolin is interested to add to discussion, Ventolin can provide an accurate calculation of Bolt’s sprints drop off times vs Michael Johnson’s. This suggests that Bolt has bad biomechanical efficiency which becomes worse as the distance increases. Bolt has a low % of type I fibers and IIa fibers. With a 3 month base of slow easy running, Bolt’s IIa fibers will increase in % while decreasing IIb fibers %. Problem is both fast twitch fibers only have MCT4, lactate transporter protein. This protein has a much lower affinity for lactate molecules than does MCT1 (found only in ST fiber types).

Regardless of how many aerobic training U. Bolt does, he simply cannot change his genetic physiologic profile. After the first 800 meters in a mile race, Bolt will begin to have a heavy amount of fatigue by-products causing peripheral fatigue. A mile is too short for central fatigue to become a factor, especially in a world-class level athlete. His central governor will recruit less and less motor units due to sensory information reducing the efferent neural activation of his exercising muscles.

At my D1 school (which had several Olympians), the mid-distance guys would do certain workouts with the sprinters on occasion, like 200m and 400m intervals. Basically if the distance guys were doing 15x200m or 20x400m, the sprinters would "tag along" and do some, jog some, sit out some.

The funny thing is, the sprinters would smoke us on the 1st 200m or 400m. Then the next few intervals, the sprinters would be DYING. Then they'd hop in for the last repeat and pull out some incredible time.

My point being, these D1 sprinters (some of them Olympic bound) had serious troubles doing several consecutive 400m intervals, which is bread-and-butter for a 1500m runner. I mean literally, none of them could string together a series of 3-4 interals at a consistent pace - it was like 2 on, then jog then next 3. And we were doing them at around 55-60 seconds. I don't think there's anyway a 100 runner could do any faster than 4:50 mile without specific aerobic training.

Tyrone. wrote:

There was a soccer player back in HS who went out for track in the sprints. He had around 50s flat 400m ability and decided to run a 1500m for laughs. Ran around 4:40-4:45 I believe, which equates to around 5 flat for a mile.

Bolt is significantly faster in the 400 but probably has less endurance than most soccer players. I'd put him in the 4:40s for an all out effort. If one day he started training specifically for the mile I'm sure he'd be down to 4:1X within 3 months, and possibly break 4 eventually.

Def a 5/10

The soccer reference starts to kill it early on but the sub 4 ref had me laughing out loud

I'm worried that you aren't trolling and are actually being serious.

Tyrone. wrote:

There was a soccer player back in HS who went out for track in the sprints. He had around 50s flat 400m ability and decided to run a 1500m for laughs. Ran around 4:40-4:45 I believe, which equates to around 5 flat for a mile.

Bolt is significantly faster in the 400 but probably has less endurance than most soccer players. I'd put him in the 4:40s for an all out effort. If one day he started training specifically for the mile I'm sure he'd be down to 4:1X within 3 months, and possibly break 4 eventually.

My buddy in high school was a bout a 50 flat guy and could run 4:14, so I think Bolt would be good for at least 3:49.

Lolz lots of fancy words and you conclude he may not be able to run a single mile?

Those exercise degrees are more worthless than I thought.

Bolt if trained and lost weight could fall just below 5. As is assuming he is not "injured" I say 5:30.

pedant wrote:

jamin wrote:

How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?

How fast could Maggie Vessey the 400 while holding a hardboiled egg on a spoon?

None. Angels are a lot bigger than the head of a pin.

Brown egg or white egg?

No, because they have no mass, angels take up no space, and hence, an infinite # can fit on the head of a pin. That is the official Thomist solution.

What about Higgs!!!

To rebuttal your question, yes I do conclude it is a possibility that Bolt may not finish the all-out race effort mile. 95% or higher of all human on Earth, if given enough time will finish a mile. I do not think this is what the OP is asking. My conclusion was that due to a very fast first 400m lap, Bolt’s blood will be full of by-product fatigue molecules. No person on this Earth has a buffering system developed to the point to shuttle lactate and H+ ions aerobically. Bolt’s peripheral fatigue will EXPONENTIALLY increase as the race continues in duration. He will therefore slow down EXPONENTIALLY. This is all again assuming that Bolt is untrained for the mile event. Place enough money on the line, and Bolt pushes to the finish but it will ugly and the time high probability not faster than 6 minutes.

You result to personal attack and add no substance to the discussion. Your last statement agrees 100% with what I wrote above, if Bolt was trained for the event.

what are talking about of coarse he could faster are you retarded? a 13 year old white kid with a month of training and barely any talent could run faster then that. and your saying a olympic athlete the FASTET HUMAN IN HISTORY cannot run faster then that your talking shit. he could probably run at worst 4:40 but for the 5k on a track which a long distince race maybe 17:30 at worst but probably 16:45

Xfit_guy_the_real_1 wrote:

Of course he couldn't compete with Froning right now, but if he put his all into fitness, he could be a serious competitor.

The Rich Froning who says "there's no limit how fast you can run" ,

A real understanding of physiology there.

News from the field, another Cross-fitter friend herniated a disc at the weekend.He blamed it on sitting around too much. Delusional.