Lance says Voeckler can win the Tour

I agree to a certain extent, but a better TT'er is generally the stronger and most complete rider anyway. It means you can't get away with being a pure climber to win the tour.

I think the Schleks will time trial well, maybe on par with Evans, but Voeckler will pop, and when he does he will pop hard. In saying that, he is keeping in interesting and I love his style.

BA wrote:

I always think its a shame that a great TT-er like contador or evans can suck wheel throughout the mountains with that in his back pocket and never take any risks.

I understand what you're saying, but I think this is a overstatement. What separates a good TTer from a bad one -- 40 seconds? Meanwhile a good climber can put 5 minutes on a poor climber in a mountain stage. I would say you have to first be a great climber and so long as you're at least a decent TTer you're in the hunt.

Lance helped him out with his"training". Which is why he's suddenly able to hang with the other top guys.

who cares they're all doped

Lance Armstrong used performance enhancing drugs.

Look for one of the schlecks or contador at the end. As much as I'd live to see Paris in mayhem with a French winner, I think he'll likely break bad, and fairly soon. There will be alot of people cracking this week.

Few thoughts:

1. When Voeckler got dropped in 2004 and barely hung on to the yellow jersey on that long climb... I think that was the same climb they did Saturday, and Voeckler finished it in the same time. Just no Lance up the road, the leadout up the climb wasn't as massive and the favorites were just looking at each other.

2. The best time trialists are usually the bigger guys. If they can wheel suck in the mountains, power to them. It's up to the scrawny climber dudes to drop them.

3. Voeckler's only hope is that the GC guys don't take him as seriously as they should. So of course he's going to say things like, "I'll definitely lose it in the Alps" -- he has to play down his chances or they'll start taking him seriously. In the meantime, there are only two mountain stages left, and if they leave it to Alpe d'Huez there's a chance that they might have trouble taking back all that time. Who can guess how Voeckler's time trialing compares to the Schlecks when he's got the yellow Jersey on his back?

4. Evans is looking more and more serious. In past years he's always cracked on the longer climbs, but he just has to hang in there a little longer...

I think everything is still up for grabs!

There really is a missing element in this tour. I'm not saying it isn't exciting, but there are seemingly fewer holy sh*t moments than last year and certainly years past. Everyone looks very human this year.

Yeah, as of right now, Evans is in the best position to win the tour, based on his current place in the overall classification (3rd, 2:06 down) as well as his better time trialing: in 2007, for example, he was second in the final day's time trial and at least top 10 in the 2008 version.

The Schlecks really will have to do something in the coming days, because I'd like to think that they've worked on their time trialling ability, but as far as what they've done this year, no big improvement is evident. Back in 2009, Frank Schleck plummeted from 3rd to 6th, losing well over 2 minutes in a 45km time trial. Right now he has about 2:15 on Contador and 20 seconds on Evans.

Now as far as the big two from previous years go, Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador, Andy made four attacks on the Plateau de Bei (spelling?), but all he gained was two seconds. He isn't gaining enough to time to put away the other riders.

Now for Alberto Contador, he is in the weakest position I think he's ever been in a grand tour: he has at least a minute or two to make up on the Schlecks and, judging by what we saw on Luz Ardiden, he isn't in top form. Bad luck has hit Contador's chances hard this year: he dominated the Giro, which was one of the most difficult GTs in history, so he didn't peak specifically for the tour; he lost a minute in the stage 1 crash, he's had a couple of spills, and his team is nowhere near as good as the Leopard Trek, BMC, or even Europcar team for that matter. He will have to be at his best in the Alps, then gain as much on the time trial, to win. Last year he only gained 31 seconds on Andy, so Contador looks to be in trouble, but he is still the best GT rider in the world.

Lastly, Thomas Voeckler: I would duly love to see the Frenchman win the tour, he is such an amazing character. But I kinda don't like how much he berates his chances of winning the tour ("I have 0% chance of winning the tour"). Well Thomas, a few days ago there was a "0% chance" of you being in yellow over the pyrenees, or at least lose a minute. You lost only about half a minute (at most). That said, the odds don't bode well with his strengths as a rider, but nonetheless it is fabulous to see him do a repeat of his courageous riding seven years ago.

Those cycling dopers don't matter. They aren't athletes.

Teller of Truth wrote:

Lance Armstrong used performance enhancing drugs.

Thank you for the most irrelevant and unpertaining comment of all.

This year's TDF really lacks something. I didn't like the way the Pyrenees (?) Mountain stages were set up: Thursday Mountaintop finish, Friday downhill/flat finish, Saturday Mountaintop Finish, but Sunday NOT a rest day. I understand that they didn't want a rest day on Sunday and also wanted something great on Thursday but if they had a rest day after the last mountaintop finish, then I am sure the GC contendors would have tested themselves more.

Also, no rest day between the Alpes and the time trial means that great time trialers like Cancellara and Martin are going to take it very easy through the Alpes and the GC contendors will have no chance of winning that time trial.

Also the lack of prologue was not a good idea.

Yeah, I don't know if there's ever been just one time trial (no prologue) in the last few decades of tour history. I suppose it suits the pure climbers, but this contest is tight... maybe a bit too tight as there are so many people left and not that many stages to contend.

GUH wrote:

Yeah, I don't know if there's ever been just one time trial (no prologue) in the last few decades of tour history.

They had a TTT. Personally, I don't like TTT. I don't want the best team to win, I want to see the best cyclist succeed.

But yeah, I remember years with Prologue + 2 ITT.

Nutella1 wrote:

GUH wrote:

Yeah, I don't know if there's ever been just one time trial (no prologue) in the last few decades of tour history.

They had a TTT. Personally, I don't like TTT. I don't want the best team to win, I want to see the best cyclist succeed.

But yeah, I remember years with Prologue + 2 ITT.

Yeah, that's what I meant, only one ITT. TTT really does make it unfair for contenders who don't have the best teams; they're fun to watch though.

Did you see that guy change out his shoe while doing 50mph downhill a few days ago? Holy sh*t!!

PhatTongue wrote:

Did you see that guy change out his shoe while doing 50mph downhill a few days ago? Holy sh*t!!

by "that guy" are you talking about Philippe Gilbert? Do you know who he is???

badabeu wrote:

PhatTongue wrote:

Did you see that guy change out his shoe while doing 50mph downhill a few days ago? Holy sh*t!!

by "that guy" are you talking about Philippe Gilbert? Do you know who he is???

Is there video of this anywhere? Can't find on Google or youtube or big cycling sites.

Hushov had to take his shoe off to get it fixed as well. Slower pace but still pretty incredible.