El Corrupto
14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/9/2011 8:31PM Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
"As a test, and demonstrate the need for implementation in athletics of the biological passport, a mechanism already used in cycling and takes into account the normal hematologic values ​​of an athlete over the years to identify potential leads due doping, a group of scientists from the anti-doping laboratory in Lausanne and the IAAF, among which is the Spanish physician Juan Manuel Alonso, have published a study using the basis of the 7289 blood samples collected from 2001 to 2737 athletes from all over the world, most of them long distance runners.

His conclusion is dramatic: 14% of the samples are suspected of blood doping (use of EPO or autologous) if the formula is applied to the passport, which includes the relationship between hematocrit, hemoglobin and reticulocytes.

This fact, stated by the authors as a major argument for implementing the passport serves, however, to reveal that the IAAF was aware for years that there was a large number of athletes who are not cheaters punished.

"The study raises more questions than it answers. It shows that during the last decade, the IAAF knew what athletes showed abnormal hematologic results," says Australian scientist Michael Ashenden, one of the world's greatest experts on blood doping, "it is sad that a federation with much power as the IAAF have chosen so far not punish these cases, while a smaller, as the UCI, to assume the legal risk to test the passport in court. Anyway, better late than never." Recently, the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) gave a big boost to the passport as an indirect method of drug testing to punish cyclists Italian Pietro Caucchioli and Franco Pellizotti.

Another finding of the study, published in the journal Clinical Chemistry, is the great heterogeneity of results by geographic region of the athletes. There is a country where 48% of the samples are suspect, another 39%, another 23%... While the study clearly anonymous, does not reveal the names of countries, extrapolating the number of positive doping cases in recent years, it can be concluded without error that are Russia, Morocco, France and Spain the most polluted as well as Operation Greyhound has revealed.

"If we accept everything he says the study, 20% of those 2737 athletes could be punished. But, being more conservative, talk about 100 world-class. Assuming that half are still competing, speak of 50 possible cases doping, "said Ashenden, who, besides great defender of the passport, one of the experts of the UCI for the analysis of the data," the implications of this issue are enormous not only for what they pose to the track itself but also by the unprecedented legal burden would have on the sports courts."

http://translate.google.se/translate?hl=sv&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&sl=es&tl=en&u=http://www.elpais.com/articulo/deportes/deporte/inundado/sangre/elpepidep/20110403elpepidep_15/Tes
El Corrupto
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/10/2011 4:29PM - in reply to El Corrupto Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I cannot believe no one gives a f*** about this smoking gun evidence of widespread blood doping in athletics. Keep trashing cycling while enjoying your "clean" sport, hypocrites.
A super wild guest
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/10/2011 4:51PM - in reply to El Corrupto Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

El Corrupto wrote:

I cannot believe no one gives a f*** about this smoking gun evidence of widespread blood doping in athletics. Keep trashing cycling while enjoying your "clean" sport, hypocrites.


Maybe because everybody already knows. Its just like politics. Everyone knows politics in this country (or just about any other country) is a dirty rigged game but that still doesn't stopped simpletons from voting every damn year.
Sweet Nell Fenwick
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/11/2011 5:23AM - in reply to El Corrupto Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

it can be concluded without error that are Russia, Morocco, France and Spain the most polluted

Gee, huge surprise there.
long sox
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/11/2011 6:42AM - in reply to El Corrupto Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
> 7289 blood samples collected from 2001

I wondered why this wasn't news elsewhere, but then I see the dates 03/04/2011 (April) and 11/7/2011 (July) and seems to quote research from 2011.

Did the research only just get published, or was it quoted again due to the scandal in Spain from earlier this year?

If it is from 2001, then it looks like it might be time for some new research, as it probably hasn't have dropped much below the 14% 'suspect' mentioned in the study. Does anyone have a link to the study in the journal Clinical Chemistry - the one which states that from one country, 48% of samples are suspect?
long sox
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/11/2011 6:53AM - in reply to long sox Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Stats fanatic
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/11/2011 7:14AM - in reply to El Corrupto Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
67.3% of all statistics, used to back-up a point that was decided in advance, are made-up.
Sports physiologist
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/11/2011 7:19AM - in reply to Sweet Nell Fenwick Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Sweet Nell Fenwick wrote:


it can be concluded without error that are Russia, Morocco, France and Spain the most polluted

Gee, huge surprise there.



I really don't remember many top class runners from France and Russia. Do they mean Russian women and French Arabs?
long sox
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/11/2011 8:11AM - in reply to long sox Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I'm not sure how the news article is coming up with the conclusions about which countries are which, but if we look at the text...

http://www.clinchem.org/cgi/content/full/57/5/762

"In Fig. 1, if the ECDF obtained from athletes of country D is used as the reference instead of the generated CDF, then the measure M2 is equal to 43% (27%60%), suggesting that the prevalence of doping is about 43% higher in country A than in country D."

Then we have this table:

http://www.clinchem.org/cgi/content-nw/full/57/5/762/T2

Just looking at the number of samples...

Males
Country A -- 205
Country B -- 352
Country C -- 257
Country D -- 208
Country E -- 160
Country F -- 148
Country G -- 160
Females
Country A -- 445
Country B -- 130
Country C -- 147
Country D -- 103
Country E -- 106
Country F -- 110
Country G -- 65

So we know the number of samples and in Country A (the one with the high level of doping) there are over twice the samples from females than males, which means country A must be a country with a lot more males than females competing at the top level... yeah, that's a real hard one to guess.

Perhaps there is a simple way to cross check the samples taken for each country via the IAAF site or WADA, as there must be some way to tell which ones are B, C, D...
Sweet Nell Fenwick
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/11/2011 8:12AM - in reply to Sports physiologist Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Sports physiologist wrote:

I really don't remember many top class runners from France and Russia. Do they mean Russian women and French Arabs?

The Moroccan men and the Russian women have been the biggest cheats in the sport for decades. The widespread Spanish doping seemed to peak between 10 and 15 years ago.

The French have had several runners caught doping. Some were originally from Morocco (Latifa Essarokh, Bouchra Ghezielle, Khalid Zoubaa, Hind Dehiba off the top of my head). There are a few busted French-born dopers as well.
long sox
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/11/2011 8:16AM - in reply to long sox Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

long sox wrote:

which means country A must be a country with a lot more males than females competing at the top level... yeah, that's a real hard one to guess.

I meant the other way around... country A must have a lot more females than males at the top level.
Sad Timestoday
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/11/2011 8:30AM - in reply to long sox Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
IAAF is a corrupt organization just like everything else. Military, governments, banks, etc. etc. you live in a dream world if you think they are anything but mafia style crime organizations.
rekrunner
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/11/2011 8:57AM - in reply to El Corrupto Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
You should be careful not to over-interpret what was found, or assume this is a "smoking gun evidence of widespread blood doping in athletics".

I don't see anything that supports a finding that "20% of 2737 athletes could be punished". Rather the study itself suggests that 14% is an over-estimate of the athletes doping.

If you read the study, it says that 14% of the population are suspect. But here the population is the blood samples, not the athletes. The study also says that the blood testing "priveleged abnormal values". This means, for cost and testing efficiency, more blood samples are taken from suspect athletes. The population of suspect blood samples is therefore a significant overestimate of the population of suspect athletes. The study suggests how to overcome this selection bias, by using "a dedicated test distribution plan, or at least corrected by a statistical method such as the Heckman correction". I'm sure that "El Pais" did not apply any Heckman correction, and I wonder what Ashenden really said, and where the 20% comes from.

From the "El Pais" article, they guess that the dirty countries are Russia, Morocco, France, and Spain. These countries do not seem to be the primary sources of champions in 2001, and are just tilting the bias further.

It would be interesting to see a breakdown by performance, to see if the suspect athletes are also the ones winning meets and championships, or if the majority are mostly mediocre athletes resorting to external assistance just to be able to compete.
long sox
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/11/2011 9:05AM - in reply to rekrunner Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

rekrunner wrote:

From the "El Pais" article, they guess that the dirty countries are Russia, Morocco, France, and Spain. These countries do not seem to be the primary sources of champions in 2001, and are just tilting the bias further.


The actual study appears to using samples over a number of years beginning on 2001, not just 2001.

E.g. Table 1. Descriptive statistics on the blood samples collected from elite athletes between 2001 and 2009.

http://www.clinchem.org/cgi/content-nw/full/57/5/762/T1
rekrunner
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/11/2011 9:25AM - in reply to long sox Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
"El Pais" google translation says "from 2001" -- my mistake. I see the report often uses the phrase "since 2001".

In any case, these countries do not seem to be the primary source of champions from 2001 to 2009 either, at least for the men.

Given all the unfounded accusations of blood doping for East Africans, it would be interesting to see how these countries measured.
long sox
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/11/2011 9:36AM - in reply to rekrunner Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Please read the study, not just the news report, then you might be able to answer your own questions.

> In any case, these countries do not seem to be the primary source of champions from 2001 to 2009 either, at least for the men.

Table 1. Descriptive statistics on the blood samples collected from elite athletes between 2001 and 2009.
Athletes 7289 Number: 2737
Sex 7289 Male: 55% / Female: 45%

So it is talking about both men and women.

Plus... "Similarly, of the 3-week precompetition whereabouts reported by the athletes who were tested during the 2005 and 2007 World Championships in Athletics..."

So take a look at some of the medallists at the world championships of 2005 and 2007... are you really trying to say that you can't find any from those four countries that were mentioned?

I'm sure others can list one or two.

Note: in some cases those athletes might no longer be listed as medallists.
rekrunner
RE: 14-20% of blood tests in athletics show evidence of blood doping. 7/11/2011 10:30AM - in reply to long sox Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I did read the study (well skimmed it). I know it talked about men and women.

Don't confuse "can't find any" with "primary source of champions". You speak of outliers when I speak of trends. If I meant "I can't find any", I would have said something like "there are none in the whole decade". I wasn't asking any question there, and the study doesn't make any correlations about suspect countries and their performance. It doesn't say the medalists were suspects, or that any suspects medaled.

And that specific part was just my opinion, not addressed by the news report or the study. I was just giving my own personal impression that these countries are not comparable to countries like Kenya or Ethiopia, when it comes to consistently producing endurance champions, either in 2001, or since 2001. When I said "at least for the men", I had in mind some exceptions like Russian scandals and a few Spanish women, which make the men's and women's situation statistically different. You can fault my opinion or recollection or impression if you want, and I'll gladly accept those comments, but that's not relevant to the importance of properly interpreting "14%", or wondering where "20% of athletes" comes from.

The questions I explicitly asked weren't addressed by the study. Actually I'd be interested in answers like "which countries dope" and "which countries don't", which the study leaves unanswered with the anonymous approach.