Who has ever been able to beat Lagat in a US championship? Very few.
Who has ever been able to beat Lagat in a US championship? Very few.
Only chance is to run 30 second laps from the gun until lagat falls off
Tuck one of these in the back of his shorts until the last 600 then BANG! Indoor 3k champ!
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-01-08-little-taser_x.htm
He has to run the kick out of Lagat, otherwise he really has no chance.
only chance wrote:
He has to run the kick out of Lagat, otherwise he really has no chance.
HA! His 5k PR is something like 15 seconds slower, no? Somehow don't see him "running the kick out of" a guy who can lap ~1s faster than him per 400...
If Rupp wins this, he should go run the 2 mile somewhere and break that record too.
Lagat's body is physically capable of going faster, I would guess. The only way Rupp could beat him would be to get in his head. I saw a thread they other day about one of the few times El G got beat, and the strategy was to basically just get in his head in the middle of the race, push the pace, then fall back, push again, fall back, then sit for a while, then try to break away. If Rupp wants to win, he has to get tactical.
I don't think Lagat is scared of Rupp at all, and no strategy will spook him.
In a kickers race I think Rupp loses, in a time trial I think he loses by more, so that doesn't leave a whole lot of options. He needs to get lucky, with somebody going out at a suicidal pace or by somehow running Lagat into a poor position so he can't launch his kick effectively.
I think what will happen in this race is pretty obvious, they run 2.6k at 8:00 pace then people start kicking, Lagat takes over with one lap left and wins by a second and a half
Lagat loses when he gets cut off just as he's ramping up. Rupp needs to pay off two guys in the race - a couple of slower guys who are likely to get lapped. One to step in front of Lagat with 2 laps to go, then another with about 150 to go.
umm... i don't think any guy in the us will be close enough to lagat to cut in front of him with 150 to go, if so he should just try to keep kicking and go for the win, but thats impossible.
if a guy trys to cut him off with 2 laps to go he'll either die after that or dnf. even if someone cuts him off with 400 to go, he'll still win.
Ruppy needs to take a shortcut across the infield. If he does, he will win by 1.8 seconds.
rupp ran 13:10, which is equivalent to 7:40 on the IAAF tables, whereas lagat ran 8:10 2M, which is equivalent to 13:00 or 13:01 5000m or 7:35 3000m. And frankly, I thought that Lagat wanted to go faster before his pacers dropped off and forced him to finish quickly. So, Rupp isn't going to be burning Lagat off by trying a fast pace, and he sure isn't going to be outkicking Lagat. Not now, not this year. Lagat can be beaten this year by Wheating, an in shape Webb, and possibly by Solinsky, but Rupp isn't there yet and maybe never will be.
I agree that I don't think Rupp is "scared" of Lagat. He will get out there and compete his hardest and try to win the race. Period.
But he ain't winning this race unless Lagat falls down, gets spikes HARD, or breaks/tears something. And only the last one might be the sure thing for Rupp to beat Lagat.
You never know, to start with if Lagat is not 100%, Rupp is in the form to take advantage
Lagat is a supreme tactical runner and has the speed, but you never know, and Rupp is still improving
I tell you something else about Rupp he might not have the fastest finish but watching his relaxed form at pace, that kid was born to run
Agree that Webb at his best and Wheating can out-kick Lagat. Solinsky has some serious wheels, but with his size, I don't see him having enough for Lagat. That 5K in Australia will be fun to watch.
I watched the Rupp / Farah 5K, and Rupp had a nice finish, but it wasn't even really close in that last lap. I would have liked to see Rupp wait until 150m to go in that race - he went too early in my opinion. Maybe he went when he did with the American Record in mind, I don't know.
I think Lagat has an edge on Farah in the closing speed department, so I just don't see how Rupp can pull this out, minus a really off day for Lagat.
One of these years, Lagat will lose that edge. Maybe next year or 2013. But by everything I'm seeing so far this year, Lagat is still the man.
ImDaNuts wrote:
Who has ever been able to beat Lagat in a US championship? Very few.
It's easy actually. Rupp needs to train hard for about 4 more years. When Lagat is 40, his speed will slip a notch and Rupp will take him.
Rupp has a few things not helping him this week, flying back from NZ, training geared toward a 10k instead of 3k. My guess is Salazar wants him to get a race in this weekend and this is his best option. I think they both know Lagat is superior right now, but a race fits into the long term plan for summer.
Have to agree that Kagat will spank RUPP, despite Galen's amazing fitness right now...the fact that he flew from Birmingham, UK to NZ, and now back to the US all in a few days is going to whack him bad. I made the flight last from Australia and was off my running game for 4 days....how he can run a low 7:30 while being jet legged is beyond me.
Rupp can win, but it will take Lagat having a bad day. Bernard Lagat is faster and a brilliant racer, so he'll have to be sick or something.
Rupp will have to race very well to have a chance, but it's out of his hands whether or not he wins.
'Agree that Webb at his best and Wheating can out-kick Lagat'
Are you talking about Lagat at his peak? In any case mentioning Webb is a joke. Lagat has managed to stay 'at his best' for a nearly a decade. Webb managed 2 season. Wheating to early to tell but I doubt he will match Lagats titles, in fact I would put money on it