Rupp vs Solinsky Friday

Important for Rupp and Solinsky to be near the front. They are not gonna come from behind on Merga...he's the master on that.

Solinsky ftw.

Now that someone predicted that, we can move on to reasonable predictions.

I don't think Chris sets a new AR here, though he runs a good race. I think he's done wondering if he belongs––he now knows he can run with anyone––and he is aggressive, but smart. Comes up just short in an effort to win the race.

Rupp @ 13:0low, runs a smart race not caught up in the Africans as he tries for sub-13. Unfortunately, he comes up about three seconds short.

Huge field for a quality 5K. Solinsky may want to start at the back and conserve as much as possible until the rabbits are off the track. Rupp, too.

Getting to the rail in about 5th place or so and just follow the leader until the end is great in theory, but doesn't work all that often in these races, since 15 other guys are looking to do the same thing.

Soksi and Rupp will definitely run from the back - that's the US style, with exceptions. I think we try to be so rational that going out at ridiculous paces at the front seems somehow wrong. Daft. Illogical.

I feel the same way - running a very fast first part of a race is a path to doom, usually.

Question is...who sits on whom?

Solinsky is not going to sneak up on anybody anymore, I don't think. He comes in with the fastest time in the world in 10000 and the #5 fastest at 5000 in this race. He will probably be as much of a market man as Kipchoge or Merga in this field.

It will be interesting to see how they respond to him, and how he responds to them. To a certain extent, the tables are turned here, with Solinsky having a faster 10000 time (aerobic ability) than just about all of the top guys except Kipchge. That's faster than Merga, Chepkok, and Rotich...and faster than Kipchoge this year. It would be interesting if CS decided to use that ability to run surges or blow the race open in the middle, Kenyan-style.

Coach D wrote:

Question is...who sits on whom?

Solinsky is not going to sneak up on anybody anymore, I don't think. He comes in with the fastest time in the world in 10000 and the #5 fastest at 5000 in this race. He will probably be as much of a market man as Kipchoge or Merga in this field.

It will be interesting to see how they respond to him, and how he responds to them. To a certain extent, the tables are turned here, with Solinsky having a faster 10000 time (aerobic ability) than just about all of the top guys except Kipchge. That's faster than Merga, Chepkok, and Rotich...and faster than Kipchoge this year. It would be interesting if CS decided to use that ability to run surges or blow the race open in the middle, Kenyan-style.

I would love this

agip wrote:

Soksi and Rupp will definitely run from the back - that's the US style, with exceptions. I think we try to be so rational that going out at ridiculous paces at the front seems somehow wrong. Daft. Illogical.

That's not the "US style", that's sommewhat of a ridiculous statement. Our style has nothing to do with why we run from the back, it has to do with the fact that for the most part we aren't competitive. It's the only rational choice they have most of the time. So if you call doing the right thing their style, then yea....that's their style, the only option available that makes sense.

Webb at his best did not run from the back, because he didn't need too. But in HS hwen he ran his record, he did just that, ran from the back, because it was his best option. It's not a style, it's just frigin common sense.

Coach D wrote: To a certain extent, the tables are turned here, with Solinsky having a faster 10000 time (aerobic ability) than just about all of the top guys except Kipchge. That's faster than Merga, Chepkok, and Rotich...and faster than Kipchoge this year. It would be interesting if CS decided to use that ability to run surges or blow the race open in the middle, Kenyan-style.

Don't confuse PRs with ability. Bekele has never attempted an all out 10k attempt, but you can bet there's a pretty good chance he has better aerobic ability than Solinsky.

+++++++++++++++++++++++

I see your point and you are right sometimes, but not always. We seem to have a lot of sit and kickers, regardless of whether East Africans are in the race.

Barringer sat and ran down Gelete at Pre. JB actually freaked out one time she led a race - NCAA XC. Symmonds seems incapable of leading, even against Americans. Soksi sat on Rupp and others in that Stanford 10k. Vessey sat and kicked everyone last summer - Pre and I think Monaco. Has Rowbury ever led a race after a lap, even against people she can beat? K Goucher followed people around in NYC and Boston.

The only people who like to lead are Manzano and Wurth Thomas. Although I think you're right- Americans would be idiots to go to the front against East Africans.

What I would love to see is for Rupp and Solinsky to work together and grab the AR back from Lagat. What I would hate to see (and kind of expect) is both of them getting swallowed up on the final lap of a tactical 5k. Some day they may get there, but I don't think either one is ready to run "tactics" against this quality field.

Sideshow Bob wrote:

Wheating running 800 vs Symmonds, Kaki and Kiprop. Rupp and Solinsky facing the Africans. Looks to be a real good few races.

Can I ask where you found the startlists? I don't seem them at the DN Galan website.

agip wrote:

I see your point and you are right sometimes, but not always. We seem to have a lot of sit and kickers, regardless of whether East Africans are in the race.

Barringer sat and ran down Gelete at Pre. JB actually freaked out one time she led a race - NCAA XC. Symmonds seems incapable of leading, even against Americans. Soksi sat on Rupp and others in that Stanford 10k. Vessey sat and kicked everyone last summer - Pre and I think Monaco. Has Rowbury ever led a race after a lap, even against people she can beat? K Goucher followed people around in NYC and Boston.

The only people who like to lead are Manzano and Wurth Thomas. Although I think you're right- Americans would be idiots to go to the front against East Africans.

Freaked out? I think she just had a rough year and didn't have it, don't think it had anythign to do with being near the front, she's won many ncaa races leading from the Front and being up front.

Aside from her, we've seen GF and Rupp both lead from teh front in Ncaa's or other races, if they could do it against the elites, they might, but they aren't that good yet. Rupp did make that race where Solinskys kicked by him for the AR in the 10k, although you can't blame solinsky because he was in uncharted waters big time.

Shalane is never afraid to push the pace if she can handle it...so much so that she's collasped a few times in races or had to start walking...IE HS regionals and Collegiate Ncaa's.

It's a bit of everything, i imagine if you looked at every african in the races, they obviously aren't all leading even though some have the Prs to do so.

Coach D wrote:

Question is...who sits on whom?

Solinsky is not going to sneak up on anybody anymore, I don't think. He comes in with the fastest time in the world in 10000 and the #5 fastest at 5000 in this race. He will probably be as much of a market man as Kipchoge or Merga in this field.

It will be interesting to see how they respond to him, and how he responds to them. To a certain extent, the tables are turned here, with Solinsky having a faster 10000 time (aerobic ability) than just about all of the top guys except Kipchge. That's faster than Merga, Chepkok, and Rotich...and faster than Kipchoge this year. It would be interesting if CS decided to use that ability to run surges or blow the race open in the middle, Kenyan-style.

Great points, and great questions. From what I've seen and read, I suspect that while Merga might be happy to sit a bit, Kipchoge will put the squeeze on the field if things aren't moving pretty fast by 3000. I think that Ebuya, also, tends to ramp up the pace from earlier on rather than trying to drop the whole payload in the last 800. I can't see this being won in anything above 12:55, much less 13:00.

Before I get flamed: I'm not trying to pretend I have some expertise or inside knowledge here -- I'm just a fan! Happy to hear other thoughts.

Also, I'll be at the meet, so if any letsrunners are going to be there, hands up!

Truth Sayer wrote:

Important for Rupp and Solinsky to be near the front. They are not gonna come from behind on Merga...he's the master on that.

Merga is a consistent 3rd - 5th place finisher and he's "the master"? Say that again?

Mrr82 wrote:

Rupp did make that race where Solinskys kicked by him for the AR in the 10k, although you can't blame solinsky because he was in uncharted waters big time.

Rupp is a footnote in Solinsky's AR race. He "made" the race? I don't credit rabbits. And I'm not a huge fan of calling Solinsky's sustained death hammer a "kick". Go watch that video...Solinksy went machine and Rupp's 13-year-old chest caved in.

Pre said it was the size of his heart; for Mottram the size of his balls. For Rupp...well, I think he's waiting for Semeyna to take the lead on that one.

Wallet Inspector wrote:

... and Rupp's 13-year-old chest caved in.

Pre said it was the size of his heart; for Mottram the size of his balls. For Rupp...well, I think he's waiting for Semeyna to take the lead on that one.

Quite the hate mail. You must be proud. And your mother too.

agip wrote:

Has Rowbury ever led a race after a lap, even against people she can beat?

You must have missed her last race.

Also, Alysia Johnson is about the most aggressive front-runner on the circuit right now.

Wallet Inspector wrote:

Mrr82 wrote:

Rupp did make that race where Solinskys kicked by him for the AR in the 10k, although you can't blame solinsky because he was in uncharted waters big time.

Rupp is a footnote in Solinsky's AR race. He "made" the race? I don't credit rabbits. And I'm not a huge fan of calling Solinsky's sustained death hammer a "kick". Go watch that video...Solinksy went machine and Rupp's 13-year-old chest caved in.

Pre said it was the size of his heart; for Mottram the size of his balls. For Rupp...well, I think he's waiting for Semeyna to take the lead on that one.

You are deluded and sick in so many ways that you are downright deranged.

Enjoy sleeping in your closet.

Birmingham to beat Rupp.

Thanks.