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The forum has imploded. No new threads have been allowed since 6 am on Sunday. You can only post to existing threads.
Sorry to hijack this thread but it has been at the top of the forum list for nearly 9 hours straight.
So yeah...only 3 weeks left!!!!!!! Who's going to take it??? Will Hopkins dethrone the champ? Or will he be dressing up as a socon champ for halloween for the THIRD straight year?????? Will it be 6 straight for ASU or will another team pull off a small miracle and dethrone them??? Lets here some predicts!!!!!!
I'm going to go ahead and say Kirwa will win his 3rd straight SoCon title. Until someone beats him, or he shows up hurt, I'll put my tuition on him. Koech, Thompson, Hopkins, Weaver, Soderman, and Schmitt should round out the rest of the 1st team All-Conference, in no particular order.
I find the team race to be much more intriguing. Here is how I see it shaking out:
1. UNC-G: I'm putting this all on Savoia, Clyne, and Coore. Veterans of the conference who need to put it together at conference. Going to be tough to beat App on their home course, but if there is a year to do it, this lineup is the one.
2. App: They could flip spots if guys like Hudgens, Staub, and Kelly step up. This just seems to be the weakest frontline App has had in quite some time. Still tough to bet against them at home.
3. Chatt: Gautier always has his boys ready to show up on race day, and this year should be no different. They could move up if Vasquez and Moore have better performances and one of the two teams above has a bad day.
4. Davidson: Have the talent, but unlike Chatt, they tend to struggle at conference. Great frontrunners in Hopkins and Schmitt but I'm not sure Marcil and Weir can get the job done on the back end.
5. Elon: This team could have the biggest swing in finishing place. Relying on a bunch of freshmen, but they are talented.
6. Furman: Most dissapointing team so far. What happened to Miller and McGoogan after their performances at outdoor?
7. Western: They always finish right around here.
8. CofC: What happenedd to that great "track" season they had?
9. Samford- Wow they miss Bean and Blaise..
10. Citadel- Ummmm....
11. Wofford- Yea....
1. App - Do I even need to explain why?
2. UNCG - Looking good but lack App's pack strength.
3. Chatt - Good top 2. Good conference performances
4. Davidson - They usually blow up, we'll see
5. Furman - They've won some pretty sh**ty meets so not sure how they'll do
6. Elon - Freshman have started to fall off
7. Western - They always get 7th
8. CofC - No depth
9. Citadel - Less depth
10. Samford - Picked Citadel over them for the hell of it
11. Wofford - The kings of last place
1. Kirwa -3peat
2. Soderman - Home course advantage
3. Hopkins - Be right behind the above two
4. Berry - I thought he'd be in contention for the win this year...go figure
5. Koech - Kenyan power
6. Thompson - Right behind his buddy
7. Raby - Also home course advantage
8. Weaver - Wishes he had some running buddys on his team
9. Hudgens - 1500 champ speed
10. Gilmer - 4:04 mile speed, finished right behind Weaver earlier this year
Schmitt - has he ever had a good conference race? No.
McGoogan - Third in 10k track. What happened?
Miller - Fourth in 10k track. Seriously what happened?
Any Elon kid - you'll never break top 10. sorry.
Parker - Freshman of the year last year. but looks like he finally realized he's at Wofford.
Rest of App's pack - somewhere in between 11-20th place
don't believe me, wait til conference. You'll see.
Some of you guys need to go to www.soconsports.com and check the facts of previous conference meets. UTC does not always show up for conference; in reality, they are very hit or miss. Last year was a miss and they finished 4th, as was 2006 when they hosted and placed 5th. 2007 and 2008 were solid 2nd place efforts. Davidson's history at SoCons is not as bad as people are making it out to be. They finished 2nd last year on an off-day. The previous year was 8th when 2 of their best runners DNF'ed due to injuries. That was their ONE big miss. From 2005-2007, they rightly finished 4th every year and were not in the same tier as UTC and App.
If any team has a history of outperforming their regular season efforts at SoCons, it's Furman.
People need to give Berry, Koech, and Schmitt more credit. Berry is a gamer and has consistently stepped up at conference meets. His time at Louisville puts him 3rd in the conference this year and that was probably not his best. Koech surprised his own coach finishing 2nd last year. I expect him to go out and battle Kirwa again this time. To the person who said when has Schmitt raced well at conference, he came out of nowhere and finished 3rd in the 5K at 2009 Outdoor SoCons. Moreover, he is a different runner now than previous years: #2 all-time at Davidson, ahead of Harden, Divinnie, and all the others except Hopkins.
UNCG can win if Coore runs like he did in 2008: 25:30 for 13th overall. Davidson could also win if their 5th man is not so far back. Tupper has established himself as a solid 4. I don't think UTC can win. I never would have thought that at the beginning of the season with Kirwa, Berry, Moore, Vasquez, and a slew of sophomores returning. And then they get Wanuch, a solid transfer, and it looked like the UTC of old. But they just haven't run well. And Gautier's press clippings have been hilarious: http://www.gomocs.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=92104&SPID=11113&DB_OEM_ID=17700&ATCLID=205005151. App is definitely still the favorite, but more beatable than usual. They're the only team that has had 5 guys run solidly every meet. We'll see what happens this weekend.
1. App 59
2. UNCG 64
3. Davidson 66
4. UTC 85
5. Elon 120
6. Furman 130
20. Moen, Kelly, or Staub
Appy is the favorite until they lose. 2005-2009 winning streak.
UNCG has a lot of pressure to break the App streak.
Chatt has the best 1-2 in the Conference if they run as billed. Unless Gautier's making that up in the above press release about tripping and getting run over, Chatt's other scorers may be a lot better than seen this season. What if they'd all run 20 seconds faster and Cotter had finished?
-McGoogan was 9'th last yr and 8'th the year before, and ran well last weekend coming on at right time of year. Hardly a wanna-be.
-Parker in top 15?-Western and CofC had multiple guys ahead of him at Charlotte. Yes wofford has taken hold there.
-Weaver rolled at Charlotte, like to compare his time to the guys that run there this weekend. Will be interesting to see how a fast McAlpine compares to what is a "legit" 8k Louisville course. I assume the Elon, UNCG, Dav times will not be as fast even though it is a fast course. We will see.
-Basically will be able to merge last McAlpine results from 10/1 and tomorrows and then throw in App and Furman from this weekend at App, put them in order, slide in Chatt were you think appropriate and presto: you will have a good idea of where everyone stands. Using Paul SHORT and Louisville don't give a good idea, but since half the conference ran at McAlpine 2 weeks ago, half are running there this week, and Apps Course runs similar times, it will give a good idea.
How can you say Chatt has been up and down? Last year they got 4th WITHOUT BERRY!! In 2006 they only had 5 runners and their 5th was falling down, screaming in pain for the last 3 miles of the race. I would say that's more about lack of depth than not showing up. If Cotter and Vasquez really went down like Gautier said at Louisville, then I might move them up in my predictions for conference after this weekend. Somewhat surprised that more teams are not going to Boone this weekend. And can someone explain to me why all these guys that have breakout performances at outdoor conference don't do anything the following cross season? Is there a reason behind this trend the past few years?
the two meets at McAlpine won't be as easy to compare because they are running a different course at the Queens meet. They are doing a multiple loop course that takes out both the hill and the back mile. HS runners from Charlotte know this as the "pancake'
This year of all years looks like Apps most likely to lose their title. If Joey runs like he did last weekend at Mcalpine, Greensboro will win. I'm not sure if they can handle the pressure of taking the title....only time will tell.
It looks like Western Carolina's times from McAlpine and Boone don't really match up. Since Davidson and UNCG have run some blazing races there I'm pretty positive they won't be close to these times come conference.
App will win pretty easily.
Soderman, Raby - top 10
Hudgens, Taylor, Staub - top 20
No other teams 5th man will be that high.
Chatt - Fourth (possibly third or second, strongest front 2, if 3-5 run well)
Western - Sixth
Elon - Seventh (honestly there getting slower yet running faster courses. Well, at least they ran well at their invite...)
It's mostly a race for second between three teams.