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The winner of the Socon rarely finishes inside the top 7 at regionals. BUT Greensboro will for sure if they can get Koech to step up.
This may be one of the best teams we've ever seen and Chelimo is the best. Wish we could have seen a Chelimo v. Kirwa duel. That would have been awesome.
I agree. I thought Hopkins had a chance to beat Chelimo but after watching the race I realize that Chelimo is on a level we haven't seen in the SOCON before. That was my first time seeing him race and its clear why he hasn't been beat yet. What surprised me most though was how dominant UNCG was. I thought it would be a really tight race between them and Davidson with Furman very close behind. Did they just run way better than they have yet or did I underestimate them? Davidson and Furman ran some crazy times during the season and UNCG hadn't really impressed me that much.
UNCG seems to have learned how to peak right for this season, and we'll really see at regionals if their peak will get any higher. My guess is they are under rated because of season performances outside of SoCon championship. I think they surprise some folks and finish an amazing fifth, but don't get an at large bid. Remember the longer the distance is the better it is for their 5th man Koech. But hands down Chelimo will win it within the first mile. I think Hopkins will be top 10 and qualify too. Davidson can sneak up in the top 10 I think.
Davidson ran at Clemson, Charlotte, and Louisville... that is as easy as you can get for an 8k. UNCG had 3 challenging courses with Elon, UVA, and Paul Short. Paul Short admittedly is notoriously fast (and short?), but the conditions were apparently horrendous that day. You may have noticed that no one from App broke 26 minutes at Paul Short - so yeah, UNCG had much tougher courses. So their times weren't true indicators of how well they actually ran.
Sure Kirwa wouldn't have won but he would have challenged Cheilmo. He would have beaten Hopkins at SoCon which means he would have been less than 15 seconds from Chel.
UNCG gets 6th, Chelimo gets second. Hopkins gets 15th. You heard it here first.
Only a few days from regionals. Who goes?
Chelimo is nearly a lock.
Hopkins should go assuming no blow up.
I say UNCG has a damn good shot to go if their front 3 run well and their 4 and 5 run really well.
Davidson will be top 12, App not in the top 20.
Hopkins is not a sure in even if he runs well.
While he does have a shot at making nats, remember only 4 individuals go. I don't think he can beat guys like Matt Hughes.
Also Koech would have to have another giant drop in time for UNCG to have anywhere close to a shot of going to nationals. I predict 5th place.
|who will go|
If you want to talk about the socon team with the best chance of going to nats you should start paying attention to the uncg women not the men. They are ranked 5th and have a very strong front runner. Their chance is better than the men. When is the last time a socon women's'team went to nats?
Idk if you guys have seen this, but John Kellogg has made predictions for every region: http://www.letsrun.com/2011/ncaaregional-1102.php
Paul Chelimo (UNC-Greensboro)
Ryan Hill (NC State)
Andrew Colley (NC State)
Soufiane Bouchikhi (Eastern Kentucky)
Mark Amirault (Virginia)
Matt Hughes (Louisville)
Jake Hurysz (North Carolina)
Luis Orta (Kentucky)
Ben Cheruiyot (Eastern Kentucky)
Deus Rwaheru (Western Kentucky)
Will Mulherin (Virginia Tech)
Ty McCormack (Clemson)
Zac Edwards (Liberty)
Adam Cunningham (North Carolina)
Gilbert Kemboi (USC Upstate)
David Mokone (Western Kentucky)
Ryan Hopkins (Davidson)
Michael Hammond (Virginia Tech)
Peter Okwera (Western Kentucky)
Andrew Brodeur (Duke)
Joey Thompson (UNC-Greensboro)
Tyler Byrne (Louisville)
Paul Katam (UNC-Greensboro)
John Raneri (North Carolina)
Patrick Campbell (NC State)
Chris Foley (Virginia)?
NC State 2-3-25-27-28 = 85
Eastern Kentucky 4-9-26-31-32 = 102
North Carolina 124
There are four ranked teams in the region, so if somehow they could slip past Louisville or Carolina, they might have a chance. 3 in the top 25 is a good start though. If we assume the 4 ranked teams make it to nationals, then the individual qualifiers based on Kellogg's picks would be: Chelimo (UNCG), Amirault (UVA), Orta (UK), Rwaheru (WKU). Hopkins would be 10 as far as indivduals (17th overall); although personally, I wouldn't be surprised if he makes the top 10 which could very well get him in.
Just for fun:
If you look at Kellog's predictions, UNCG puts three runners infront of NCST #3. No, I am not saying that they will beat NCST, but it is a fun fact. Also, last year Keoch finished 28th overall. If he runs the same as last year (based on his Socon it's possible... kinda), he puts UNCG in an AMAZING position to finish top 4 as a team.
Hey... It could happen...
Looks like Greensboro ran well. Not great, but well. They had the best 1-3 in the meet except for NC State, and even they didn't have one all that much better.
Got 8th place with their 4 and 5 man making up a VAST majority of their points.
Congrats to them though, they had a heck of a season. I hope Thompson gets in although I'm not sure he will.
Awesome races(seasons) by chelimo, Thompson, Hopkins, berry, Laramie, and cotter. And also schnell, obrien, delassio, and barker. Has the sickness ever had this many all-region performances and potential trips to nationals?
Congrats to Chelimo, Berry, Thompson, and Schnell for making it to nc's. Four runners from the socon running at nc's is a pretty big deal. This has been a hell of a season in the socon. Besides these four, there are Hopkins, Katam, D'Alessio, O'Brien, and Barker who were all-region. Congrats to all these fine runners for representing the socon so well. Now let's see if we can get some all-americans. Good luck to the four on Monday.
Congrats to Berry, Chelimo and Thompson Heck of a job fallas. Great job Schnell also!
And a further congrats to coach Linh Nguyen for sending three athletes to NCAA's. All the Kenyan talk aside, sending three athletes to NCAA's is a huge accomplishment.
|Sir trolls alot|
Any thoughts on where theses 4 will finish at Nationals?
I'll take a shot and say Chelimo top 10 at 6th, Thompson will get top 60 at 53rd, Berry will be top 100 at 89th, and finally Schnell will probably be top 40 at 32nd.
I don't think you realize how hard it is to do well at nationals. If Thompson gets top 60 I will be pretty shocked. I say he doesn't get top 100. Berry will be ~125. Chelimo will be top 15, maybe top 10 on a good day, not 6th though.