Carleton is gonna be 5th in the MIAC, maybe higher.
The Johnnies don't have much of a 4/5 runner, at least from last year's MIAC results they didn't. I still believe in the Johnnies, so I'll say they'll take 3rd.
Augsburg, losing too many. From last year's results, they don't have much firepower. However, Schafer had a pretty sucessful track season and Rodriguez will start being more formidable.
UST, it comes down to who they bring in, and how well their 3/4/5 develop. And as much pain as this brings me to say, I think the Tommies will take 4th. The Johnnies have the advantage in depth.
As for the main event which seems to be developing between Olaf and Hamline, it's a toss up. Let's take a look at who's coming back and what time they had at conference last year:
Olaf:
8 Ruon Dobuol, Jr 26:15.0
12 Ben Wilson, Jr 26:33.3
19 Chris Massey, Fr 26:54.2
23 Jon Lambert, Jr 27:02.4
26 Adrian Swanson, Jr 27:06.4
Total: 88 points
Hamline:
6 Devin Monson, So 26:11.5
18 Ellis Richardson, So 26:53.8
20 Andy Johnson, Jr 26:54.8
28 Ian Campbell, Jr 27:12.3
30 Colin Rogers, Fr 27:19.2
Total: 102
So if that's all that mattered, we could decide who wins right now, but unfortunately (for Olaf) that's not how it works.
The things I could see changing:
Olaf
(+) Dobuol. If conditions are right, he's unstoppable. Plainly and simply seems like the most talented runner in the MIAC.
(-) Massey looked mediocre during track. Maybe he's more of an XC guy but I wasn't overwhelmed. He could have been hurt or something.
Hamline
(+) Ian Campbell will improve. Let us not forget how fast this kid was as a freshman.
(-) Monson has some big shoes to fill as that number 1 runner, but there aren't a ton of points to be made up there.
I still can't make a call on this one. Unfortunately, no one will be able to until after MIAC. (Lest we forget our fateful winning predictions prior to XC conference last year:
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3182437&page=4
)
It's going to be a crazy year with some INCREDIBLY talented teams. Good luck to all. (especially St. Mary's)