Rupp 10,000 meter prediction thread

I would guess it is 50/50 if the race will even happen. If so, I don't see how they will be able to throw together pacers with a few hours notice to take a real serious shot at it. He would have to run solo the final 5K if not more - although he did that with his AJR 28:15. So... 27:38.12

I predict a DNF in Eugene because of wind gusts. Rupp shuts it down and goes to Stanford and runs a 27:31 for a new PR.

name wrote:

Fastnbulbous wrote:

On the other hand, Ritz broke 13:00 without ever previously breaking 13:15...with a nearly 20 second PR...

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EPO is a hell of a drug.

Yeah, imagine what he could run if he were taking it. Frightening.

Pre was a tough 27:40 guy. So tough that he held the record in the famous 30-40 drill over guys like Salazar, Chapa, McChesney, Centro Sr. etc.

Pre's record for that workout was 20 laps (5 miles) and he ran 27:40 while not being a 10K guy or racing many. That was longer than Salazar who was also a tough MF who was a 10K man and ran 27:25.

When Rupp came back to NCAA cross after the Olympics he went 24 laps before being told to stop, and being faster than required pace. From what I understand the Oregon guys had eachother to push and Rupp did this alone.

Rupp has not run a 10K in a time trial/paced setting since Cardinal invite in 2007. He has run :16 faster for 5K since then and he did that INDOORS. If he's more than :20 seconds faster for 5K now and able to do that kind of workout my guess is he can squeeze out more than a couple seconds PR over 10K.

If he races at Cardinal i say 27:10 and he's running the last 6-8 laps solo.

Watch footage of Bekele's WR 10K. He runs the last 5K essentially alone. So if Rupp is fit and ready, he has to be ready to do the same. By that thinking, all Salazar needs is someone to pace Rupp through 5K in 13:30-13:35. Not a lot of people to choose from but more than enough in the Eugene area.

jussa thought wrote:

Pre was a tough 27:40 guy. So tough that he held the record in the famous 30-40 drill over guys like Salazar, Chapa, McChesney, Centro Sr. etc.

New-guy question: What's the 30-40 drill?

Nevermind. Saw the other thread.

It's a little funny that this is brought up because the last time so much stink was made about Rupps racing decisions was when they opted for a 30-40 workout instead of a low key race in Oregon where the footing was bad and the "not Rupp-certified" joke started.

There too the posers whined about him not racing while he went on to set collegiate history with a sweep of NCAA cross, 3 indoor and 2 outdoor titles followed by a USA title and a world time.

Wonder how much of that he would have accomplished by making dumb decisions and paying for it later like most do?

Lets see, take everything Rupp has earned by being overly cautious and a "p@ssy" according to some or take everything combined from all the other runners that Rupp beat in earning the titles? Yep, I'll take Rupps approach and his honors.

27:24

I predict that he will go through the 8k split 10 seconds under pace, but fade badly after due to a humidity percentage that changed drastically after the race start by .015, Salazar will yell at him from the sidelines to stop do to the poor conditions but Rupp will want to prove the fans wrong with all this Rupp-Certified nonsense and it will end up costing him the season due to lung tissue damage from all the excess moisture in the air...

-all jokes aside, I really hope he gets it, but I'd like it more if he got it in Palo Alto...

The man has already run 27:33, so they know exactly what kind of mileage and workouts he did leading up to that race. If they are saying he is in American record shape, he is probably exceeding everything he did back then.

They have gotten pretty good at predicting Rupp's fitness. I think sub-27:20 is gonna happen.

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong but the 30-40 drill is when you run continually alternating 200M of 30sec or under and 40sec and under. You do that for as long as you can until you run a 200M over the threshold.

Apparently it was conceived by former Duck coach Bill Dellinger and I think its just an Oregon workout. Not sure if anyone else does it. Prefontaine held the record for many years and Rupp just broke it a couple years ago.

Ryan Foreman wrote:

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong but the 30-40 drill is when you run continually alternating 200M of 30sec or under and 40sec and under. You do that for as long as you can until you run a 200M over the threshold.

Apparently it was conceived by former Duck coach Bill Dellinger and I think its just an Oregon workout. Not sure if anyone else does it. Prefontaine held the record for many years and Rupp just broke it a couple years ago.

I think your right, PRE had the record at 20 laps and I think Salazar made it close to that with a lot of olympicans, american record holders, collegiate record holders etc. falling short of PRE's 20 laps. PRE was tough as nails and Rupp went a mile longer before being told to stop. Typically they run the workout until failure but Rupp was simply stopped.

Apparently you are allowed to hit a few 30.X and 40.X splits but you shouldn't be regulary running 71's as those add up. If you hit 31 or 41 your out (I'm assuming if you hit that early and it's a mistake it's fine but when you start to struggle it means your done). According to the reporter who watched it Rupp was averaging around 4:38 miles so he was consistently under pace. Curious to know how much further he could have gone.

27:06.8

well he's now officially in for stanford tomorrow.

Indoors doesn't mean slow. If people were in the same shape for indoor as outdoor (which can be done if you mess up your beak), indoors isn't much slower for things like the 3 and 5k. You have the big advantage of good weather (no wind and a good temperature).And the ability to run at a certain pace and the ability to handle pace changes are not always the same. Some people handle surges and the like better than others. You can image that both Pre and Rupp were a bit faster than AlSal over 400m which makes running 30s pace easier for them while AlSals aerobic strength made it possible to hold a faster steady pace. No real evidence about things like this.Rupp is in good shape but running sub 27:20 is getting pretty fast for a guy with his prs.

Good, we'll all get what we wanted after all. Rupp is back off the sh!t list.

a wrote:

Indoors doesn't mean slow. If people were in the same shape for indoor as outdoor (which can be done if you mess up your beak), indoors isn't much slower for things like the 3 and 5k.

Which is why the top 10 5K guys in history all run 15 - 20 seconds faster outdoors than indoors? Indoor has some perks, nice tracks and no wind but you are constantly turning and running on banks. For 5K that is not better than running long straights in ideal conditions outdoors with a monster crowd. Which again is why the top 10-15 guys of all time have run 15-20 seconds faster outdoors than indoors. That includes Bekele, Geb, Komen, Shihine and on and on. The same applies to Rupp ( and Lagat for that matter ). Lagat is 13:12 and 12:59 outdoors and likely will get down to 12:55 or faster this summer, and Rupp will be in that range.

If Rupp fartleked 27:33 in 2007 and has PRd by about 5-6 seconds at 1500 since then and 16 seconds at 5K (again that is going outdoors to indoors which is the reversal of how fastest marks are made) he's ready to crush his 10K. Hell his 5K will take a smashing this summer, probably 15 seconds or more but people fail to think he can improve at 10K? The guy is a 10K runner. 28:15 as a jr. running under 14:00 on the second half alone. As a 19 year old? He was made for 10K. He is absoulutely going to smash his 10K pr now and likely further drop it this summer in europe.

Well the alternative explanation would be that his 5k PR back when he ran 27:33 was well slower than what he was capable of, so he's basically just gotten it down to where it should be. I think he ran sub 13:40 for the 2nd 5k of his 10k, so certainly he was capable of better than his 13:30 5k PR at the time. Just playing devil's advocate.