Interesting to note that Rupp is listed again as "unattached" for the Cardinal Invite. People mentioned it for Brutus Hamilton and I thought nothing of it, but being like this again is a bit strange, considering that Amy Yoder Begley IS listed as Oregon OTC Elite.
Anyone know what the deal is? You'd think they would want to give his sponsor credit.
where yer head at wrote:
If Palo Alto nice weather: 27:08.7
so you really think he is gonna virtually equal the all time non-african record of 27:08 by Barrios, and break the all-time non-african white boy record (again, I am not calling Barrios "white") by 4 seconds?
Fastest non-african:
50. 27:08.23 Arturo Barrios MEX Berlin 1989-08-18
Fastest "white" or Euro non-african;
60. 27:12.47 António Pinto POR Stockholm 1999-07-30
Fastest American (east african transplant)
63. 27:13.98 Mebrahtom Keflezighi USA Palo Alto 2001-05-04
Fastest REALLY pale white Euro:
85. 27:18.14 Jon Brown GBR Bruxelles 1998-08-28
Fastest white american:
91. 27:20.56 Mark Nenow USA Bruxelles 1986-09-05
NObama SUCKS wrote:
where yer head at wrote:If Palo Alto nice weather: 27:08.7
so you really think he is gonna virtually equal the all time non-african record of 27:08 by Barrios, and break the all-time non-african white boy record (again, I am not calling Barrios "white") by 4 seconds?
Fastest non-african:
50. 27:08.23 Arturo Barrios MEX Berlin 1989-08-18
Fastest "white" or Euro non-african;
60. 27:12.47 António Pinto POR Stockholm 1999-07-30
Fastest American (east african transplant)
63. 27:13.98 Mebrahtom Keflezighi USA Palo Alto 2001-05-04
Fastest REALLY pale white Euro:
85. 27:18.14 Jon Brown GBR Bruxelles 1998-08-28
Fastest white american:
91. 27:20.56 Mark Nenow USA Bruxelles 1986-09-05
Of course I think he can, wether he will or not this weekend is a different thing. I think Rupp could have run 27:25 there in 2007 and I think he's a lot better now than he was then. I'd focus more on where the world record is than whatever barrios managed. The AR is a stepping stone to 27:00, and yes I think Rupp can manage that in Europe.
Is Rupp worth more than 5 seconds over meb in similar circumstances? Easily.
I think Rupp will do to the 10K what Ritz did to the 5K last summer, surprise a lot of doubters and start to demystify what "white" guys can run in these distances.
Agreed, and according to the poll on the front page more than half (as of now about 500 ppl) think it's more likely than the 1500 collegiate record going down.
I think that collegiate record has a decent shot of going down considering Centro only needs about a 1 second PR and he has GOOD company in the race. I predict Wheating to win it in 3:34.97.
I'm going with 27:09.64
Now he may not run? Too windy in Eugene? Too much pollen at Stanford? Why don't they just go up to Dempsey and run it indoors? If he does run in Eugene I wonder who Al Sal has lined up as pacers.
I think Rupp is thinking more about being the first American to break the sub 27 minute barrier. You can always lose an AR but being the first sub 27 is forever. He knows if he doesn't do it soon there are 2-3 (Ritz and Lagat for sure) that could beat him to the sub 27 minute.
My prediction he goes for it and = 26:58.39
if he isn't in sharp enough for the sub 27 then will fall off pace and end up with something closer to 27:28.5
I'm a BIG Rupp and Oregon fanboy but like another poster said, sub 27:13 in April in Eug is a bit much. I do wish him the best but i dont know if an AR is in the cards right now. Put him in a fast European meet in june or july, you bet your bottom dollar hes going sub 27:13, maybe even sub 27:08. I still think he is 1 or 2 years away from sub 27 BUT he is the best chance of breaking 27 that america has (no i dont think Ritz will break 27)
27:14.00
you have to walk before you can run and you have to go sub 27:13 before you can go sub 27, in my view.
or, executive summary:
sub 27 heap big heap drop.
Only at Hengelo.
On the other hand, Ritz broke 13:00 without ever previously breaking 13:15...with a nearly 20 second PR...
Anyone who predicts over 27:20 for Rupp is being ridiculous. His 27:33 PR will be exactly three years old. He's made leaps in improvement since then, and is on a whole new level. His only disappointing race of a totally amazing 2009 was World Championships, and no one seems to remember that he had some injury issues and missed some important training before that event. Yet he still ran pretty close to his PR in an unevenly paced championship race. As I mentioned in an earlier thread, the only way he misses the AR is if he has a truly bad day. I say he runs 27:09.
Fastnbulbous wrote:
On the other hand, Ritz broke 13:00 without ever previously breaking 13:15...with a nearly 20 second PR...
.
EPO is a hell of a drug.
This is where I think a lot of you are off base. Going for an AR is not peaking too soon. Its not necessarily even peaking. It seems to me record breaking is more about endurance and running an even sustained pace. And for that, this is right about the time you want to start peaking. When you get to around a couple months before the big races thats when you want to take the endurance for granted and really start focusing on the finishing kick that you need to win medals. Or short of that train for dealing with the inevitable surges in a race. A case in point is Bekele. I saw him make an attempt at the world record for the 10K a couple of years ago at the Prefontaine Meet. He missed it by 8 seconds. That was when the Pre meet was in May so Rupp is doing this in about the same time frame. Moreover, while Bekele was obviously running a fast pace he didn't run any lap under 60 seconds which is what he is famous for. The way I look at is this. Rupp wants to run with some of the best East Africans this side of Bekele. To do that, you have to run a sustained pace that is at least AR pace. To do that, you have to practice it. That is what I think Rupp is doing. I know there are people on this board who understand the art of peaking for big races so I will defer to them if it looks like they know what they are talking about. But it makes a lot of sense to me that Rupp would attempt and achieve around an AR time this time of year.
backspace wrote:
I'm a BIG Rupp and Oregon fanboy but like another poster said, sub 27:13 in April in Eug is a bit much. I do wish him the best but i dont know if an AR is in the cards right now. Put him in a fast European meet in june or july, you bet your bottom dollar hes going sub 27:13, maybe even sub 27:08. I still think he is 1 or 2 years away from sub 27 BUT he is the best chance of breaking 27 that america has (no i dont think Ritz will break 27)
'Caucasian runners have had great difficulty getting below 27:30'
That's because they are doing something wrong not that they can't
Jon Brown (UK) ran 27:18 10 years ago & his is a long way from being the most talented runner out there
Rupp might get the AR later in the season in Europe
name wrote:
EPO is a hell of a drug.
Like Ritz wasn't tested thoroughly between the World Championships and that race. I assume people come here because they enjoy the sport of running. So WTF is the point of accusing our greatest runners of cheating with no proof, other than sucking the fun out of the sport like asshat vampires?
sup Virginia wrote:
I think Rupp will do to the 10K what Ritz did to the 5K last summer, surprise a lot of doubters and start to demystify what "white" guys can run in these distances.
that very well may happen. And I think it is going to take a lot of success by guys like Rupp, Ritz, and more before there is a "demystification" concerning what " "white" guys can run in these distances." For starters, it might take one of those white americans getting within ONE MINUTE of the WR. Think about that for a moment. A minute in a 10k is a lifetime. It is insane that Bekele is that far ahead of the best american born runners ever. So really there is no "mystery" to clear up concerning the gap between white runners and the best african at 10k. It is currently, and has been for many years, a hard cold reality.
Gard Dog wrote:
Now he may not run? Too windy in Eugene? Too much pollen at Stanford? Why don't they just go up to Dempsey and run it indoors? If he does run in Eugene I wonder who Al Sal has lined up as pacers.
At least we haven't heard anything about him having a cold.
Too many options. There are three races scheduled for him this weekend. Maybe indoors has been considered as well.
I am still waiting to hear about a Sunday option.
Is Rupp in or out at Stanford?
I'm predicting a DNS because the conditions will never be good enough for AlSal.
NObama SUCKS wrote:
sup Virginia wrote:I think Rupp will do to the 10K what Ritz did to the 5K last summer, surprise a lot of doubters and start to demystify what "white" guys can run in these distances.
that very well may happen. And I think it is going to take a lot of success by guys like Rupp, Ritz, and more before there is a "demystification" concerning what " "white" guys can run in these distances." For starters, it might take one of those white americans getting within ONE MINUTE of the WR. Think about that for a moment. A minute in a 10k is a lifetime. It is insane that Bekele is that far ahead of the best american born runners ever. So really there is no "mystery" to clear up concerning the gap between white runners and the best african at 10k. It is currently, and has been for many years, a hard cold reality.
True but Bekele is coming back and these guys are moving forward, and while his PR is seemingly superhuman, nobody else including all the top africans are touching that. Perhaps its because the drug tests for what those guys were on has been developed? Just a thought, since they are not getting faster and in fact are coming back.
Remember Ritz blowing up the top africans and closing down on Bekele last summer? That is a great step. It's not like everyone has to be Michael Jordan or Lebron James or else they can't be in the NBA and might as well give up. Dirk and Nash are pretty inspiring as well.