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adult onset
What could Meb do in a flat race with perfect conditions? 11/3/2009 2:49PM Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Generally speaking, I think we can agree that for elites NYC is a course for races and not PRs, relative to flat courses. (e.g. Berlin, London, Chicago, Rotterdam)

On top of that, the windy conditions for this year's race didn't help matters.

It seems as if elites in the field (the ones who finished) added anywhere from ~1-5 minutes to their PRs on Sunday.

It's a no-brainer to say that with his current demonstrated fitness Meb could have time-trialed a marathon faster than his race on Sunday, if the New York course had become totally flat, temperatures stayed in the 50s with still wind and a team of pacers showed up on the scene.

The interesting question is HOW MUCH faster than that 2:09:15? I think it would be foolish to give him anything less than a minute, and am going to say that he is in 2:07:xx shape right now.
viva italia
RE: What could Meb do in a flat race with perfect conditions? 11/3/2009 2:53PM - in reply to adult onset Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Well, he ran a low 2:09 in London this spring. He might be able to squeeze off a few more seconds and edge into 2:08 territory but he doesn't seem like he's capable of going much faster. I don't mean that in a negative way, just that his record is pretty consistent.
adult onset
RE: What could Meb do in a flat race with perfect conditions? 11/3/2009 2:55PM - in reply to viva italia Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Perhaps.

I'd suggest that doing a faster time on a harder course suggests improvement, though...
statistician
RE: What could Meb do in a flat race with perfect conditions? 11/3/2009 5:39PM - in reply to adult onset Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Average addition to PR by top 10 men yesterday was 4:46, so I guess 2:04:29 is a fair guess in perfect conditions....
excacerbator
RE: What could Meb do in a flat race with perfect conditions? 11/3/2009 6:36PM - in reply to viva italia Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Meb was still building off of his injury this spring. NYCM in the wind is brutal by comparison. 2:06-mid at least.


viva italia wrote:

Well, he ran a low 2:09 in London this spring. He might be able to squeeze off a few more seconds and edge into 2:08 territory but he doesn't seem like he's capable of going much faster. I don't mean that in a negative way, just that his record is pretty consistent.
ohhhh yea
RE: What could Meb do in a flat race with perfect conditions? 11/3/2009 7:05PM - in reply to excacerbator Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I would say mid 2:06 isn't unreasonable...off of the slow early pace and tough conditions, as well as putting 30-40 seconds on Robert "boom daddy" Cheriyot in the last 2 miles, I would put this almost = to Halls OT victory in terms of fitness shown. And he ran 2:06:17 not too soon after. I would think Meb is in sub 2:07 shape minimum considering who he beat in NYC.
brilliant ho
RE: What could Meb do in a flat race with perfect conditions? 11/3/2009 7:15PM - in reply to adult onset Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
you sir, are a racist.
jjjjjjjj
RE: What could Meb do in a flat race with perfect conditions? 11/3/2009 7:23PM - in reply to brilliant ho Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
as for hall, he seems to mistake improvement at the same workout for a barometer of likely race performance when canova argues rightly that adaptation to a particular workout does not mean you will race any better. hall was a minute faster in a tempo run, having now practiced that tempo run again. does he understand that he needs to vary the stimuli to even maintain? he needs to go back to the track for the spring/summer, comparable to ritz this year. too many marathons make ryan a dull boy.
10000 gil
RE: What could Meb do in a flat race with perfect conditions? 11/3/2009 7:29PM - in reply to jjjjjjjj Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I don't support the racist crap, but I'm really dumbfounded as to where this came from. Seemed like a runner on the same talent level as Abdi and Culpepper, entering the twilight of his career, then becomes a world beater.
Marshall Wayne
RE: What could Meb do in a flat race with perfect conditions? 11/3/2009 7:30PM - in reply to brilliant ho Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Brilliant, what is he a racist for?

brilliant ho wrote:

you sir, are a racist.
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