When will the unemployment rate hit 10%?

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Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

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Oh sagacious one, I provided that link as further information only. It has nothing to do with my prognostications about the unemployment rate. That you don't agree with him is of no relevancy. Half the time, I don't agree with him, but the other half, I do, and he is very informed and plugged into the "network." He actually called both the market top of 2007 and the bottom on the S&P 500 in March, so you might just keep that in mind.

Nonetheless, why did you avert the question if you choose to participate? Well, what say you or will you rather act cowardly and refuse to issue a response? That would be my bet as well.

it's no surprise that the unemployment rate will hit 10 percent soon, as this has been the mantra throughout the year ("the unemployment rate will hit 10 percent late in 2009 or early in 2010"). I have heard this a thousand times this year.

10% in January 2010, then will increase by 1% each month. 22% in January 2011.

jjjjjjjjj wrote:

it's no surprise that the unemployment rate will hit 10 percent soon, as this has been the mantra throughout the year ("the unemployment rate will hit 10 percent late in 2009 or early in 2010"). I have heard this a thousand times this year.

I agree. I don't remember people capping it at 7.8% or whatever. I always heard people say we were probably looking at double-digit unemployment some time in 2009, and we probably wouldn't start to see recovery until mid-late 2010.

Unemployment will reach 10% in August 2010, mark my words!

It has certainly NOT been the mantra this entire year, especially not back in the Spring or last year when it was my personal mantra. And it certainly wasn't in the political forecast. But, since we are talking about Dow 10,000, I thought it apropo.

For those who would anonymously disparage what they perceive a lack of credentials, here's a true and very sound econometrist, turned investment manager, who merely echoes my own sentiment. Defile him if you must:

"Many of my concerns about the markets in recent years have emerged because too often, financial market participants and policy makers focus on manifestations rather than causes and conditions. This is why investors produced the dot-com bubble, the tech bubble, the mortgage bubble, the debt-financed private equity bubble and the commodity bubble without thinking of the seeds of crisis that were latently emerging, or how violently they would manifest. Our policy makers have bailed out poorly run financials by creating massive federal deficits, and think they've solved the problem in the same way as someone who runs over a weed with the lawnmower. The roots have simply grown deeper, because the seeds are still there, but we've applied a few conditions in the opposing direction. Those of you who have read these missives for a long time know that my geopolitical views are largely the same. This is, because that is. This is not, because that is not.

We can have an overvalued market and the seeds of a bear market, but if we apply opposing conditions in the form of easy money in order to prop up the market and prevent the consequences of bad behavior, the seed will simply grow stronger, and its ultimate manifestation will be more powerful. We can have a mortgage market that is setting new records for delinquencies and foreclosures every month, combined with increasing unemployment and a heavy reset schedule on Alt-A's and option-ARMs that is just now picking up. But we lower the bar on financial reporting, fail to restructure debt, and ignore the strengthening seed because we're single-mindedly enthusiastic about the thin-rooted green shoots of stabilization – born solely of a burst of fiscal profligacy – then we'll predictably be blindsided when the problems re-emerge."

http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc091011.htm

Flagpole  wrote:

Unemployment will reach 10% in August 2010, mark my words!

That's a great guess Flagpole, since you uttered these very words on 12/31/08:

"INCORRECT!

Unemployment is at 6.7% and is forecasted to plateau at 7.6% by mid 2009."

And that's precisely the bs I'm talking about.

Was 1982 the last year that the unemployment has been higher?

That would be my guess, though I could pull it up in about 10 seconds if I was sitting next to a Bloomberg terminal right now, which I'm not:

http://www.bls.gov/

1982, seasonally adjusted. The question is, will we top it? I'm guessing the likelihood is high:

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet

I think the unemployment rate is likely already at 10.0% currently. Given that the Oct. 2 update placed it at 9.8%, and we have continued to see job losses since, although at a declining rate, it seems reasonable to assume we could hit 9.9% or 10.0% with the November release. I agree that the true figure is much higher, and the under-employment problem is even worse.

The next wave in layoffs later this year and into next will be the state and local government workers, many of whom were spared a cut last year due to a one-time stop-gap of economic stimulus funds. These government entities must now begin the painful process of balancing 2010 budgets to overcome a huge decline in tax receipts. Difficult to raise state income and local property taxes in a recessionary environment with declining home values. This means layoffs, furloughs, and pay cuts.

At the same time, I am starting to see some spark in the job market, at least in the corporate finance and investment areas. Many firms are finding themselves understaffed as the market starts to recover. They are not jumping back into recruiting with both feet, but a tip-toe is better than where we were a year ago when everyone, including the healthy firms, were afraid to hire anyone. If forced to give a specific figure for the peak official unemployment rate, I would place it in the 10.5-11.0% range sometime in the Q2 of 2010. My $0.02 anyway.

A good read on the unemployment update.

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/09/unemployment-update.html

At this point, I would love to see the Fed withdraw a little liquidity and slow the free fall of the dollar. Everyone in ECON 101 learns that inflation is a tax, but more specifically it is a regressive tax. The fundamentals for the recent run in oil are not there, its almost entirely a byproduct of the dollar getting obliterated. Oil/gas forms a much higher proportion of disposable income for the lower class.

On a personal note, I have not met a single person who has become employed as a result of the Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

UsedToBeKnowItAll wrote:

I agree. I don't remember people capping it at 7.8% or whatever. I always heard people say we were probably looking at double-digit unemployment some time in 2009, and we probably wouldn't start to see recovery until mid-late 2010.

One of the administration's justification for the "stimulus" package was to cap unemployment at 8%. Don't know how they figured that would happen since little of the stimulus was spent in a way that would create any jobs. In fact, most of it has yet to be spent despite the rush to pass it.

My 2 cents, the November unemployment update will be 10%. Read an article yesterday; the unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group in Detroit is 57%.

Sagarin wrote:

That's a great guess Flagpole, since you uttered these very words on 12/31/08:

"INCORRECT!

Unemployment is at 6.7% and is forecasted to plateau at 7.6% by mid 2009."

And that's precisely the bs I'm talking about.

That's not BS, that's just changing my prediction in light of recent facts, such as my username being easy to fake with alt+255.

Sagarin wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Unemployment will reach 10% in August 2010, mark my words!

That's a great guess Flagpole, since you uttered these very words on 12/31/08:

"INCORRECT!

Unemployment is at 6.7% and is forecasted to plateau at 7.6% by mid 2009."

And that's precisely the bs I'm talking about.

Sagarin, you've been duped by a guy who faked my name. If you highlight the "Flagpole" in this thread, you'll see a blank space after the name.

Regarding BS though, the thing you quoted me on was all correct. 1) Someone had mentioned an unemployment rate that was NOT was the current rate was (so I told them "INCORRECT", and 2) the rate had been forecasted to hit 7.6% at that time. I wasn't predicting a certain rate...just offering what the experts at that time had said. And, yes, you can save your "it's not the real rate". I get all that.

But, just to be clear about things, 10% unemployment rate is a certainty (and well before August 2010), and likely a few points higher even. Will suck for those out of work. Will NOT suck for those with jobs though as the market will stay stagnant or get slowly better for a while yet, and earnings will continue to improve, ESPECIALLY when we get to March 2010.

The unemployment rate hit 10% plus in the early 1980s, for the first time since the 1930s.

Boy, do I feel silly. The point was already made about the name, but thanks for feeling compelled to make the reiteration. The tenor of my reply is correct all the same, regardless of who I was replying to. March 2010. There it is, in plain sight. Well, perhaps Government Sachs and the Fed will make your dreams come true... for awhile.

Sagarin wrote:

Boy, do I feel silly. The point was already made about the name, but thanks for feeling compelled to make the reiteration. The tenor of my reply is correct all the same, regardless of who I was replying to. March 2010. There it is, in plain sight. Well, perhaps Government Sachs and the Fed will make your dreams come true... for awhile.

As earnings are compared to the previous year's same quarter, and earnings and the market were in the dumper in March 2009, March 2010 WILL have some good earnings reports. That's not a dream of mine. It will happen. You are making a leap though in thinking that I believe that's a springboard for rapid growth and a roaring economy. I don't think that. Steady as she goes for a little while yet...likely 2+ years before we start to see any real traction from this point on, and at least one if not more corrections are likely. Baby Boomers retiring will ultimately help the economy (especially on the jobs front), but they will also take a LOT of money out of stocks, and that has to have a negative (or at least counteracting) affect on the market.

I think another thing you and some of the doomdayers need to keep in mind though is that the government, like it or not, has a big affect on the markets and the economy. Call it "artificially" propping up the markets or the economy if you wish, but I always take government interaction into account when making a prediction.

Also, to turn the topic into another direction, I told you Ohio State was bad...losing to Purdue is an upset, but I[m not surprised. OSU's offense is anemic as I've said since the Navy game. Just bringing this up because you were using my prediction about OSU to show that I'm not good at predicting anything. Well, I said initially 3-4 losses on the year. I think that's almost a given at this point...could be more.