Think you know something about Econ/the stock market? How would you rank these stocks?

Sorry, I don't gamble anymore.

40k Nike

The rest are overpriced.

Got to through Nike in there, eh?

I'd not invest in individual stocks if I am seeking advice on stock picks on a running message board.

I'd stick with no load low annual expense mutual funds and dollar cost average. I'd buy into a mix of a emerging markets index, TIPs, developed nation index, S&P 500 index, something like a Ginnie Mae fund, and maybe a REIT fund.

how did you settle on these 5 stocks?

Seth Cohen wrote:

I'd not invest in individual stocks if I am seeking advice on stock picks on a running message board.

I'd stick with no load low annual expense mutual funds and dollar cost average...

Please, don't anyone use that term 'dollar cost average' on these boards again. Didn't you read how the supposed advantage of this strategy was totally debunked on that earlier investment thread. I can't remember the dudes name but it was hilarious how he totally made Flagpole look like a tool. Worth it just for that.

short Apple for the full $40K.

LLCJ wrote:

short Apple for the full $40K.

Eventually, that will be a good trade, but you must be willing to risk some pain. It could be on Monday, but I doubt it, even if just for the short-term. Technology has run awfully far and fast, and most of that basket is tech.

CMG would've been a good play on the coming secular shift to thriftiness on the part of the consumer amidst 10% unemployment that will linger longer than most are predicting. But the stock has priced a helluva lot of that in already. Doesn't mean it can't go higher, but just do your homework.

Dollar cost averaging into no load index funds is pretty sound investment policy. Don't be a dope.

The market goes up and down. If you knew it was going to go up in a straight line it wouldn't be a good policy but the market is volatile. If you bought it March you would be doing great. If you bought in Jan you still would be doing good for the year but not as well as if you bought some in Jan and some in mid-March.

By the end of the year:

Apple will go up to $190

Nike will go up to $60

Google will stay flat

Oracle will go down to $18

Chipotle will go down to $85

Suppose you had 10,000 on Jan 1, 2000. Would you have been better with a lump sum investment into an no load S&P 500 index or would you have been better off investing at the start of each month with 10000/number of months=117, which equals $85.47

If you invested in lumb sum on Jan 1, 2000, you could have bought 7.171 shares.

If you invested each once a month, you would have 8.672 shares.

Date Adj Close

9/1/2009 998.04 0.085637936

8/3/2009 1020.62 0.083743299

7/1/2009 987.48 0.086553738

6/1/2009 919.32 0.092970984

5/1/2009 919.14 0.092989191

4/1/2009 872.81 0.09792519

3/2/2009 797.87 0.107122821

2/2/2009 735.09 0.116271593

1/2/2009 825.88 0.103489715

12/1/2008 903.25 0.09462506

11/3/2008 896.24 0.095365176

10/1/2008 968.75 0.088227185

9/2/2008 1166.36 0.073279335

8/1/2008 1282.83 0.066626198

7/1/2008 1267.38 0.067438405

6/2/2008 1280 0.066773504

5/1/2008 1400.38 0.061033495

4/1/2008 1385.59 0.061684976

3/3/2008 1322.7 0.064617892

2/1/2008 1330.63 0.064232796

1/2/2008 1378.55 0.061999989

12/3/2007 1468.36 0.058207855

11/1/2007 1481.14 0.057705609

10/1/2007 1549.38 0.055164056

9/4/2007 1526.75 0.055981716

8/1/2007 1473.99 0.057985526

7/2/2007 1455.27 0.058731428

6/1/2007 1503.35 0.056853085

5/1/2007 1530.62 0.055840173

4/2/2007 1482.37 0.057657727

3/1/2007 1420.86 0.06015377

2/1/2007 1406.82 0.060754102

1/3/2007 1438.24 0.059426859

12/1/2006 1418.3 0.060262346

11/1/2006 1400.63 0.061022601

10/2/2006 1377.94 0.062027436

9/1/2006 1335.85 0.063981798

8/1/2006 1303.82 0.065553593

7/3/2006 1276.66 0.066948197

6/1/2006 1270.2 0.067288683

5/1/2006 1270.09 0.067294511

4/3/2006 1310.61 0.065213973

3/1/2006 1294.87 0.066006692

2/1/2006 1280.66 0.066739092

1/3/2006 1280.08 0.066769331

12/1/2005 1248.29 0.068469735

11/1/2005 1249.48 0.068404525

10/3/2005 1207.01 0.070811415

9/1/2005 1228.81 0.069555168

8/1/2005 1220.33 0.070038502

7/1/2005 1234.18 0.069252528

6/1/2005 1191.33 0.071743417

5/2/2005 1191.5 0.071733181

4/1/2005 1156.85 0.073881735

3/1/2005 1180.59 0.072396078

2/1/2005 1203.6 0.071012035

1/3/2005 1181.27 0.072354403

12/1/2004 1211.92 0.070524528

11/1/2004 1173.82 0.072813622

10/1/2004 1130.2 0.075623859

9/1/2004 1114.58 0.076683671

8/2/2004 1104.24 0.077401729

7/1/2004 1101.72 0.077578773

6/1/2004 1140.84 0.074918556

5/3/2004 1120.68 0.076266272

4/1/2004 1107.3 0.077187831

3/1/2004 1126.21 0.075891783

2/2/2004 1144.94 0.074650275

1/2/2004 1131.13 0.075561682

12/1/2003 1111.92 0.076867118

11/3/2003 1058.2 0.080769312

10/1/2003 1050.71 0.081345077

9/2/2003 995.97 0.085815924

8/1/2003 1008.01 0.08479091

7/1/2003 990.31 0.086306394

6/2/2003 974.5 0.087706604

5/1/2003 963.59 0.088699639

4/1/2003 916.92 0.093214332

3/3/2003 848.18 0.100768806

2/3/2003 841.15 0.101610991

1/2/2003 855.7 0.099883236

12/2/2002 879.82 0.097144968

11/1/2002 936.31 0.091283961

10/1/2002 885.76 0.096493503

9/3/2002 815.28 0.104835253

8/1/2002 916.07 0.093300824

7/1/2002 911.62 0.093756264

6/3/2002 989.82 0.08634912

5/1/2002 1067.14 0.080092664

4/1/2002 1076.92 0.079365306

3/1/2002 1147.39 0.074490875

2/1/2002 1106.73 0.077227585

1/2/2002 1130.2 0.075623859

12/3/2001 1148.08 0.074446106

11/1/2001 1139.45 0.075009948

10/1/2001 1059.78 0.080648895

9/4/2001 1040.94 0.082108561

8/1/2001 1133.58 0.075398371

7/2/2001 1211.23 0.070564703

6/1/2001 1224.38 0.069806829

5/1/2001 1255.82 0.068059185

4/2/2001 1249.46 0.06840562

3/1/2001 1160.33 0.073660153

2/1/2001 1239.94 0.068930824

1/2/2001 1366.01 0.062569151

12/1/2000 1320.28 0.064736333

11/1/2000 1314.95 0.064998734

10/2/2000 1429.4 0.059794379

9/1/2000 1436.51 0.059498427

8/1/2000 1517.68 0.056316276

7/3/2000 1430.83 0.059734619

6/1/2000 1454.6 0.05875848

5/1/2000 1420.6 0.060164779

4/3/2000 1452.43 0.058846268

3/1/2000 1498.58 0.057034049

2/1/2000 1366.42 0.062550377

1/3/2000 1394.46 0.061292605

Sum =8.67201014

Data taken from yahoo finance

Buy Chipotle, then start eating a lot of burritos. It's a win-win situation.

me me ME wrote:

Suppose you had 10,000 on Jan 1, 2000. Would you have been better with a lump sum investment into an no load S&P 500 index or would you have been better off investing at the start of each month with 10000/number of months=117, which equals $85.47

If you invested in lumb sum on Jan 1, 2000, you could have bought 7.171 shares.

If you invested each once a month, you would have 8.672 shares.

Wow. You picked an arbitrary date and showed DCA is better. Impressive.

It is really a matter of what the trend is doing. If the market is trending up, odds are you are worse off with dollar cost averaging. If the market is trending downward, you better are likely to be better off dollar cost averaging.

Since the market is so volatile these days, I am pro-dollar cost averaging, especialy where we are today with the recent run up in the market since March.

Anybody with any sense at all would have stayed in cash until september of 02. They then would have went back to cash in May 07. I will go back to the market next summer.

By "timing" the market, if I got back in now, I would have

.......................18.81!!!!!!........................

shares. (That is not even taking the 4.5% I was making in cash) You are a fool if you aren't timing the market with your investments.

me me ME wrote:

Dollar cost averaging into no load index funds is pretty sound investment policy. Don't be a dope.

The market goes up and down. If you knew it was going to go up in a straight line it wouldn't be a good policy but the market is volatile. If you bought it March you would be doing great. If you bought in Jan you still would be doing good for the year but not as well as if you bought some in Jan and some in mid-March.

Let's say you have $40,000 in cash at some time, call it month zero. You seem to think that you should gradually put the money into the market over a period of several months.

OK. Let's say that you have $40,000 ALREADY in the market invested in the mix of no load mutual funds that you desire in month zero instead of cash. Here's the question: Will you sell all of these holdings, turn them into cash, and then gradually put them back in the market invested exactly as they already had been invested?

If so, you are a moron. I take this as self evident. Truly no offence.

If not, then dollar cost averaging makes no sense (Leaving the $40,000 invested in index funds IS EXACTLY THE SAME AS INVESTING YOUR $40,000 in cash all at once in month zero).

Which is it?

falls strangely silent.

Perhaps next time you get the urge to call someone a "dope" you might want to first check that you are right and they are wrong. In this case it has been clearly demonstrated that quite the opposite is true.

I will not call you a dope here. Instead I will congratulate you on your newfound knowledge that the notion of dollar cost averaging is absurd.

Congratulations!