Think about it, guys run 43-44 second 400s all the time, yet the 800 WR is 1:41.11. All that is required to break the WR is a pace of back to back 50s. There are probably 17500 men in the world right now that could accomplish this feat with the right focus.
My prediction is that we will see a 1:40 within the next 12 months and a 1:39 within 2 years.
UrbanTrackRunner82 wrote:There are probably 17500 men in the world right now that could accomplish this feat with the right focus.
I am very interested in how you came up with that number
Juantorena ran 44.26 and 1.43.50. Your prediction of 1.39
is highly unlikely, unless PEDs are involved. Coe was clean.
You're underestimating the aerobic ability one needs to run two 50's back to back. It is incredibly difficult (obviously, since it's never been done before). Fast 400 meter guys can't move up and do it, they don't have the strength. Dudes like Merritt and Wariner would be gassed after 550-600 meters and would look run like crap coming down the homestretch. I doubt either man could break 1:47.
The argument that a great runner in once distance could easily "move up" and break the record in the next distance sounds good in theory, but you're forgetting that different events require different types of training. By using your argument, couldn't we say that the mile record is weak? Why couldn't a 1:41.11 guy like Kipketer move up to the mile and run a 3:40? I mean, two 1:49 800's would be EASY for him right? Or why couldn't El G destroy the world record in the 5000? Surely he could run 3 sub-4 minute miles in a row! Except not... because different events require different types of specialized training.
Someone will run faster than 1:41, maybe soon. It will likely be a Kenyan. It will be someone who has great natural sprint speed, and has build up a solid aerobic base as a youth by running 8k/10k races. It will be someone similar to Asbel Kiprop, who was the world junior XC champ and has run 1:43. The record will NOT be broken by some 43-second 400 runner, who decides to move up.
Most statisticians agree that the 800 world record is the weakest one. The irony here is that the 800 is probably the record least likely to fall anytime soon. The reasons are fairly obvious; The only people capable of setting world records in the sprints are those descended from slaves, and the only people capable of setting world records at the longer records are those of east African decent. The 800 is the only race where any nationality can compete, and therefore has had a much larger sample size from which to have drawn record setters.
Really it all comes down to no one caring about the distances over a mile other than the marathon and no one caring about sprint distances over 400m.
Stupid people are funny wrote:
Most statisticians agree that the 800 world record is the weakest one.
And still only 3 people have run sub-1,42. Stastiticians don´t know shit about running.
Stupid people are funny wrote:
Most statisticians agree that the 800 world record is the weakest one.
well apparently, it's actually the 100-200 because Usain Bolt seems to break those records whenever he feels like it.
Stupid people are funny wrote:
Most statisticians agree that the 800 world record is the weakest one.
I doubt "most" statisticians even know what the 800m record is.
Are you a f***ing idiot?
so am i the first one that's gonna call troll?
It's interesting that you posted this after the 1:42 run
As for focus I doubt if you could walk and chew gum at the same time
Stupid people are funny wrote: Most statisticians agree that the 800 world record is the weakest one.
..................... wrote: I doubt "most" statisticians even know what the 800m record is.
The statistician record for 800m is probably 12 Krispy Kremes, in as long as it takes then to waddle the 800m. Time isn't important, only the number of goodies eaten.
Well, as a statistician and former 1:51 runner, I'd have to disagree!
Kripsy Kreme wrote:
Stupid people are funny wrote: Most statisticians agree that the 800 world record is the weakest one...................... wrote: I doubt "most" statisticians even know what the 800m record is.
The statistician record for 800m is probably 12 Krispy Kremes, in as long as it takes then to waddle the 800m. Time isn't important, only the number of goodies eaten.
4/10: Thought it was a pretty blunt trolling attempt, but you did receieve a few responses. Not bad.
Stupid people are funny wrote:The only people capable of setting world records in the sprints are those descended from slaves.
Oh really? So everyone in West Africa was a slave...
how about that wrote:
Stupid people are funny wrote:Most statisticians agree that the 800 world record is the weakest one.
well apparently, it's actually the 100-200 because Usain Bolt seems to break those records whenever he feels like it.
Absolutely true. It's amazing how "lousy" those old records of 9.69 and 19.30 were! They were clearly completely crap!
It is ridiculous to say that "most statisticians agree" that the 800 record is the weakest. I've never seen any such poll and I'm rather sure no one else has, either, since it doesn't exist.
For all the babbling about how "easy" it should be to run 1:41 or 1:40, the bottom line is that it (duh!) isn't easy, as a look at the all-time list will make clear. 1:41 will be broken before too long, but not all that soon, and not by that much.
A few years ago 19:32 was seen as untouchable. The 800 record could go as soon as a middle-distance-Bolt-equivalent shows up.
But that doesn't mean it's soft; not close. It means a "one every generation" type of athlete, like Bolt, has to come along and break all the records, 800-3000.
I don't think we'll see a sub 1:40 in any of our lifetimes.
Semms wrote:
A few years ago 19:32 was seen as untouchable. The 800 record could go as soon as a middle-distance-Bolt-equivalent shows up.
But that doesn't mean it's soft; not close. It means a "one every generation" type of athlete, like Bolt, has to come along and break all the records, 800-3000.
Well, Komen's 7:20 3000 record was set the same year as Johnson's 19.32 and it STILL is "seen as untouchable." So, yes, of course every record on the books will go sooner or later. But it's not something anyone can predict with any accuracy. Maybe it will take a strong 400 guy to move up and break it (as Juantorena did), but maybe not. Coe was an 800/1500 guy; and Kipketer was pretty clearly an 800m specialist: he never produced any significant 400 or 1500 marks.
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