"Doubtful American born runners will medal in the 10K or 5K in our lifetime."?

Truth be told, Runner's World receives extra funding to make sure to put these kinds of negative statements and ideas, sometimes in roundabout fashion, in their articles. This is no joke. So who knows who else bends over to get a few extra shekels? Ignore this stupid crap and just keep running. We just need more Americans actually giving the sport a solid try, not an "off day" from anyone else.

"It just strikes me that once you get past Bekele and a small handful of other East Africans, the closing speed of many of them is not that great"

I guess you didn't see the Berlin 5k. That played right into the Americans hands in a 13:1x race but were not able to capitalize.It was nothing at all like Beijing but a 13:20 pace and kick. Not even the 1500m bronze medal winner could pull it off. Still think their closing speed is not that great?

sure about that wrote:

"It just strikes me that once you get past Bekele and a small handful of other East Africans, the closing speed of many of them is not that great"

I guess you didn't see the Berlin 5k. That played right into the Americans hands in a 13:1x race but were not able to capitalize.It was nothing at all like Beijing but a 13:20 pace and kick. Not even the 1500m bronze medal winner could pull it off. Still think their closing speed is not that great?

First of all, I pointed out that Bekele is on a different level. To be able to front run for most of the last 3 laps, then pull away from everyone else is amazing and I don't see any current American born runner ever challenging that.

But after that I see a bunch of East Africans running 55, 56 second last lap. Do I still see it as not that great? Actually yeah. As in "not great" meaning, very, very, very good but not great. I personally could imagine seeing some American born runner coming along in the next 30 years and running that closing speed at that pace.

Lets put it this way. I found the relentless sustained pace of Tadese in the second half of the 10K much more impressive than any closing speed I saw from the East Africans in the 5000M.

Besides that, I strongly suspect that those 55 and 56 second last laps are supported by being relatively fresh going into the last lap because of their great endurance base. Which I concede is great. If the pace was 10 seconds slower, which conceivably it could be and runners are that much fresher, could those guys close faster? I have my doubts. Again, the pure foot speed and turnover doesn't seem that great compared to their endurance.

post too long

attention spann........

One thing that gives Americans a chance is that a country can only send 3 or 4 athletes to try and medal which negates their depth.

Kenya had Harold Keitany on their team, second fastest in the world. He has some issue and doesn't run the semifinal and can't be replaced.

Kenya was down to two in the 1500.

Teg didn't use his kick in Berlin. Got a little overawed methinks and lost confidence in his ability.

Totally agree. Weldon and Robert have too much respect for the E Africans.

By 2012 Rupp, Ritz, Solinsky, Teg, Webb will all be sub 13:00 guys.

This aint 1999/2000. 12:50-13:00 is what the top E. Africans are running.

When our guys compete over in Europe with the best E. Africans, and gain confidence in running those times, they will compete for medals.

After 2012 the trend will continue with Jager, Derrick, Fernandez and others.

By 2016, 13:05 will be like 13:20 is now. You have to be really legit to break it, but every year there could be anywhere from 5-10 guys who do it and 3-5 who crush it.

I don't think the E. Africans will get any faster in that time. I think they plateau at 12:50-13:00. They're maxed. We're not.

I think we will see an American born runner medal in the next few years (i should say again because Kara Goucher and S Flanagan both have in the last 3 years). Our athletes are not nearly as behind as we seem to think they are. Every year we have several within striking distance of a medal. It just takes one good day like Ritz just had to go from 6th to 2nd or even 1st. Getting a medal at the WC is not an easy task for anyone except Bekele, everyone else is basically hoping to medal. Everyone seems to forget that just a few years ago we often worried about just getting someone fast enough to get in to worlds or the olympics. Now we are to the point that it is unacceptable to any of our athletes to not make the final. And a good many of them are really going for a high place. Ritz's time puts him at 3rd in the world this year and Webb was ranked first just 2 years ago. No one can say we are that far out of reach that it will never happen in our lifetimes.

Agree,

assesment- of course it could happen, but not likely.

Unless its an East African American, such as Lagat.

Now the 1500m? anyone, any Nation, any time.

American born runner medal our lifetime?

Its already been done for me.........thanks B.Mills!!!!!

I think Teg has the best shot at bronze in a 5K race. It has to be relatively high speed, (13:05 -13:10 pace)where he can clip off a few stranglers for 3rd, ala B. Diemer of the steeple in 1984. Ritz and Rupp has an outside chance at a bronze as well, but its again needs to be the perfect storm.

old guy off the couch wrote:

American born runner medal our lifetime?

Its already been done for me.........thanks B.Mills!!!!!

I think Teg has the best shot at bronze in a 5K race. It has to be relatively high speed, (13:05 -13:10 pace)where he can clip off a few stranglers for 3rd, ala B. Diemer of the steeple in 1984. Ritz and Rupp has an outside chance at a bronze as well, but its again needs to be the perfect storm.

So soon we forget that Teg came within a step or two of 3rd in the 2007 worlds. This was in a very slow race.

How soon we forget about two bronze medals from 2007 and 2008.

I'm assuming the quote should have male in it somewhere?

I think is not impossible for an american born runner to do that. In fact it may be more likely than you think especially if you consider a kenyan family moving to america and having children. But I think people have to realize that while african runners are more likely to have the talent(genetics) to be good an long distance runners, there are still some (more rare) talents that come from "caucasian/white" background. There are talents now in america if there career went perfectly they could have snuck in for bronze potentially at berlin. Guys like German and Jager have displayed incredible talent. It's definitely within the realm of possibility that if there career paths went well they could be one of the top 5 runners going into a world championship. And those are the guys that medal.

If in 1956 you had predicted that New Zealand would win four gold medals in distance running in the two following Olympics, they would have gotten out the straightjacket for you. Assuming the future will look like the present and the near past is always a tenuous situation.

Do I think an American will win an Olympic gold any time soon? No. I'd bet even money on it happening sometime in the next 50 years, though. That's a long, long time.

Nothing is impossible.

It is however highly unlikely

30 years, pretty likely.

50 years, almost certain.

African elite times don't have anywhere to go. America (and maybe some of the rest of the world) will slowly have more runners that get into the 12:45-55 range. At some point one of them will have a good day on the right day and will win some hardware.

At least for 800, 1500 and 5000, the issue seems to be the ability of the Americans to compete after all of the rounds at world events. With the exception of Bernard Lagat, the Americans just have not had the gas after the rounds to get it done in the final. The funny thing is that I think the East Africans are better through the rounds because they are not pampered like the Americans in terms of training and racing. Most East Africans have to fight like hell to come up through the ranks. They don't have physios, massage, training plans, the luxury of passing on a race now and then. The East Africans are just battle hardened by the time they get to the top. Americans are showing the ability to run with the East Africans, but do not have the kind of battle hardening to perform in world finals.

Of course 10k and marathon are different because they are one shot deals. Thus, Americans have been able to get on the medal stand. So, maybe there is a point about Ritz staying with the marathon. But, 2012 will be superfast (Kibet v. Kwambai v. Mutai v. etc.). Unless Ritz can show he can run well under 2:10, he should compete on the track in London.

Huh? wrote:

How soon we forget about two bronze medals from 2007 and 2008.

I'm assuming the quote should have male in it somewhere?

What the OP really meant is "when will a white guy like me win a medal."