Bekele and 5000m World List Progression

When did he last run a serious record attempt in the 5000m?

I remember the attempt at the 10000m in Eugene but I don't remember on in the 5000 recently.

Well geez you can't set a wr every time you step onto the track can you. Suppose he runs a 12:32 next year and your little punk a** will be screaming drugs. So which is it? If he runs consistently, he's on drugs. Or if he sets a wr he's on drugs. Fags like you need to get a life and stop all this bs. Ritz just ran a 12:56 out of nowhere and you're not accusing him of anything. So you accuse the guy who has been breaking 13 constantly ever year.

every year

RRRR wrote:

Notice that Bekele is consistently right around 12:50, (as is the rest of the world) right up until the 2004/2005 season,

"Consistently"? No sorry. He is not "consistently" anything. He does a 12:50 the year before but is not even.

Of course, the year before that, he was only 19 years old, still in the middle of his meteoric rise and had only been running competitively for just a few years.

Why do all the people so desperate to "prove" drug use among elites always come up with these brain-dead analyses?

In 2005 he ran 12:40.18, just missing his WR (note that this was *after* his fiance died). He also broke his WR in the 10,000m that year (and ran a 26:28 earlier in the year for good measure, plus winning the WC 10k).

In 2006 he went after the GL jackpot instead of records, yet still managed to run under 13:00 a record six times. Two of those were under 12:50. He might have had a shot at the record in Zurich or Brussels if he hadn't run so many races. Even he said he was as tired as hell at the end of the season (tired enough not to be able to beat Mottram at the World Cup, against whom he is 20-1).

In 2007 he ran mostly 3k races, clocking a best of 7:25.79, about what Geb was running when he was setting his WRs of the late 90's. He ran exactly *1* 5k that year, a WR attempt in a no-name meet in Spain in very windy and hot conditions, with pacemakers that only lasted 2k.

In 2008 his only serious attempt at a fast 5k was in Zurich after his Olympic double. He ran 12:50 despite being dead from the 5k less than a week previously (remember the 4:57 last 2k in a 12:57 race).

And of course this year, coming back from injury, he's basically run each race as easily as possible while still winning, with maybe the exception of the Zurich race.

He's said that next year will be a year to try to break records, so expect a decent shot at the 10k, plus at least 1-2 shots at the 5k. He's really only run 4 legit record attempts at the 5k since he set it. The first was the '05 Paris race where he went 12:40. The second was the '06 Brussels 5k at the end of a long season where he simply couldn't hang on to the pace but still ran 12:48. The third was in crappy conditions in Zaragoza in '07 (12:49). The last was this year's Zurich, where he obviously didn't have the wheels after a tough double and coming back from injury.

Remember that, counting indoors, he still has more sub-12:50 clockings than any runner (6; Geb/Komen both 4). He still has more sub-13:00 clockings than any runner (19; Geb has 18). It's just very hard to run that close to a PR all the time at that high a level. None of the top runners are running consistently close to their PRs. Kipchoge, Shaheen, and Sihine aren't cranking out multiple sub-12:50s. Soi, Kipsiro, Ebuya, Longosiwa et al. aren't running low 12:50s consistently. It doesn't mean all of them are on drugs.

It's pretty clear that you haven't thought this all the way out haven't you? Has it ever occurred to you that he's only interested in world leading times instead of his own wr. Hence all those pacemakers. Not to mention the fact that having rabbits and pacemakers increases his chances of winning all of those golden league races to a much higher percentage than to say if he was just to run them without rabbits. Besides there is no one capable of challenging the 5k wr right now. So he's probably not as motivated to break it anytime soon. See how thinking about such questions before you posts doesn't make you look like a complete dumbass. (P.S why did you post about his fiancee? His fiancee died I think early 2005 and he set the 10km wr later that same year. So there goes that whole argument.)

If his motivation was to keep breaking his own world record, you might be on to something. However, if he runs a 12:36 and makes 100k appearance fee and 25k in prizes or whatever, great (you'd say he was doping, anyway). Or, he could run 12:50 four times in two months, win the races for 100k, plus 400k appearances, plus 1million jackpot in the golden league or equivalent. Once you are the best, you ought to go ahead and make some cash.

Bolt ran a 9.81 this last week instead of 9.58, therefore he must be doping. This is stupid. He can't run all out each week and still keep coming out. Even more so for a 5,000 runner.

(note, they may or may not be doping. Just saying your reasons are not sound, because they need to make some money and trying for a wr is not the way to do it.)

Are you directing this message towards me or the OP? Because if you read my recent posts, I disagree with the OP too.

I agree that his progression (or lack of) is somewhat unusual. I guess he's only half way through his career, so such trends cannot be seen fully until after he retires. It's certainly rare for a distance runner to run his fastest time at the age of 21! But, he may yet improve on this. I doubt it personally.

He's had 5 seasons to try and break it since, and I'm sure he has tried.

The whole evolution of 5 & 10 k running went completely mad in the early/mid 90's, and the rate of progression in those events in particular was exponentially far in advance to historical trends. Their progression should be slowing down, not speeding up.

I just realized how lame it is that you know all of that and how it's equally lame that I was interested.

I'm out. I'm going to find me a girl.

Bpenca, thanks, that was thoughtful. I'm convinced.

Well I still see a trend...WL times for what might be 6 years running, and undefeated in the 10k for his career. The guy averages 26:45 per 10k, and has probably run more times under 13 than over (not counting heats). He's a model of consistency, which is the opposite of what dopers are generally capable of.

It's not that unusual at all. Webb ran a 3:30 for the 1500m and 3:46 for the mile in 2007. How come he hasn't improved yet? It's harder to improve upon your time over and over again when you set a wr at an early age. The window of improvement becomes narrower as you get older when you're placed in that situation. (Especially if no one else challenges the W.R which will motivate you.) These athletes are probably more concerned about winning medals instead of chasing times. Besides I GUARANTEE you that if he did break his 5k wr two or three more times in 2005,2006 and 2007 than you guys would still come up with a way to suggest he was on something. So it doesn't matter if he runs consistently, improves or not because in your mind he is always and always will be on something. There, I rest my case.

guh-bye wrote:

I just realized how lame it is that you know all of that and how it's equally lame that I was interested.

I'm out. I'm going to find me a girl.

I have a life and a girlfriend too.

I just wanted to say that I really enjoyed reading that post from bpence.

wow, quite a few posts in defense of Bekele.

-I did not realize that every time I posted questions about a foreign athlete's performance, that I was obliged to also question a local athlete's performance in that same post. I suppose this is Let'srun rule #453?

-You are right, Bolt's 9.81 does not mean that his 9.58 was a flash in the pan, drug aided run. Still, the man has, in both this season and the last, given the WR in the 100 and 200m a go. Of course the 5,000m is another animal, but if you are going to use Usain Bolt as an antithesis, please acknowledge that he is giving the WR a decent shot in a year where he has no more incentive than Bekele to do so.

-You are right, Bekele set the 10,000m world record in the same year his wife died. I brought this up, because, if you will remember in 2005, there were lots of threads on here asking questions about the nature of her death, lack of an autopsy (actually rooted in Ethopian custom), and shifting details in Bekele's accounts of how she died. Still, you are right, the 10k WR was set in the same year, after her death. This does not change the fact that he has not approached his 5k record since.

-While I have not spent much time thinking over this, I did actually acknowledge in my OP that in a year where Bekele is chasing prize winnings (and the WC) he may simply be running just fast enough to win. Still, I disagree with the idea that meet promoters are not setting races up for WR attempts. He does not NEED to set a new WR to win, but there have been opportunities and courtings to do so. Even last week, the race Bekele and Dathan were in, was taken out in 60/61 for the first few laps, set up by the rabbits for a pace in the WR neighborhood. Clearly, meet promoters are hoping that he will take a stab at it, and I doubt that Bekele and his agent are unaware or without financial incentive to have pursued that goal multiple times in the past 3 years.

-In an event where 13:00 and 12:55 are light years apart, during a resurgence in drug talk and testing scrutiny world wide, I do not think it is ridiculous to question the ability of Bekele to be 10 seconds ahead of the rest of the world one year, then suddenly turn in human performances the next 3.

-Lastly, I may be completely wrong to question performances from athletes, but guess what? This is a fanboy message board, and questions like this are raised on fanboy message boards. Deal with it and stop taking this board so personally. Honestly, it's sad. Kenenisa does not give a flying sh*t about my opinion of him or his performances, and neither should you unless my post interests you as a discussion topic. This is all speculation, and until drug tests and their methods catch up to new PED's, we are stuck with speculation and circumstantial evidence, as proved by BALCO. El G (how many Moroccans have been caught in recent years?), Flo Jo, and take your pick of any record setting performance during the 1980's...we'll never know for sure about any of them, and that's what really sucks about the athletics situation right now.

OP, I was agreeing with you. I'm too lazy to scroll to the top.

Heads up, thanks for the thoughtful post bpence, you make good arguments. I'm just not convinced at this point. If he comes back next year, in a non WC, OLY year to break or come within the stratosphere of his WR, I will most likely change my tune.

-RRRR

RRRR wrote:

Heads up, thanks for the thoughtful post bpence, you make good arguments. I'm just not convinced at this point. If he comes back next year, in a non WC, OLY year to break or come within the stratosphere of his WR, I will most likely change my tune.

-RRRR

He's run 12:40 in 2005. I see your point BUT you don't seriously expect him to run a 12:37-12:45 after doubling at the wc's five days later do you? If he would've ran the zurch race fresh than he was probably due to around the type of time. His problem is the fact that the Kenyans are not to keen on helping him set a wr in the 5k. I mean you seen the zurich race right. It was clear that he was frustrated with that type of pace. The Kenyan (pacemakers) get paid but there's still that national pride there and bekele is their main arch rival. Neither of us have a clue what it takes to run that fast and here you are speculating why he hasn't run close to that time since? I just hope when he does smash the wr next year, you don't go posting under a different name accusing him of drugs.