When will this happen...and will KB do it?
When will this happen...and will KB do it?
I don't think sub 12:30 will be done by Bekele.
12:29 means that the runner must average sub-4 minute miles for 3 miles, unless, they have a good kick at the end. for example, the hypothetical runner to do this could go 4:00, 4:00, 4:00, 29 second last 200m to make it a 12:29 5000m, but it's rare that a runner ever runs 8:00 for 3200 races(i know they're not run that often- but i think mottram did it when he ran 8:03.5 for 2 miles at pre 2 years ago), so to think a runner could go out and run an 8:00 3200 and the continue at the same pace for another 1800m is too unrealistic i think.
To put it in perspective, Daniel Komen ran 7:58 for 2 miles, which is probably ~ 7:55 for 3200m, so he would have to continue at nearly the same pace for another 1800m.
I say it doesn't happen until after 2020, if ever.
In Zurich tonight.
If anyone living, El G probably could have done it. 3:43 mile time. 3 x 4:00 miles doesn't seem out of the range of possibility. Don't think it could be done alone, though, he'd have needed a Komen or better type to bring him through 2 miles in 8:00 or a little less.
Not that it is a big difference...but going through in sub 8:05 would make it still possible with a kick like Bekele has had. it would take a perfect race for this to happen...
Non-college wrote:
If anyone living, El G probably could have done it. 3:43 mile time. 3 x 4:00 miles doesn't seem out of the range of possibility. Don't think it could be done alone, though, he'd have needed a Komen or better type to bring him through 2 miles in 8:00 or a little less.
El G was certainly not capable of it. He didn't reach his potential at the distance but I don't see him running any fater than 12:40-he had a slower 3000m pr than komen and much more speed, so he will be slower than Komen at 5000m (12:39) as well. 12:42-12:45 maybe.
Also, 12:29 for 5000m is slower than 4:00/mile pace-due to the extra 9 meters in a mile (1609 vs 1600).
Komen was not capable of it, Gebreselassie was not. Bekele is not capable of 12:29 either. His 12:37 was well paced and all out, and he does not appear in far better shape even 5 years later-he has never really approached his 5000m pr.
12:29 will not be ran until at least 2025, probably 2030.