What do you think is a better single predictor of upcoming high school xc season performance?
- Previous xc seasons best performance
- Best performance in 3200 last spring
I am talking about comparisons of individuals in the same state, without in-depth knowledge of each runner, no knowledge of their summer training, injuries, etc. If you had to look at one stat or the other, which would more accurately predict? Or would you choose something else altogether?
I think 3200 times, simply because they are closer to the current season and are more easily comparable among runners in a state who typically run different xc courses.
Thoughts?