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| Negative Net Worth |
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Given that he ran a 3:29 a few days ago and a sub 1:45 today, does he have the tools to get it done? I think his best is 7:28 but he has improved on the shorter distances as of late. |
| ventolin |
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trying http://www.jundo.co.uk with his 1'44.8 & 12'53pbs -> ~ 3'28.64 7'24.06 however that was 1s ever 800 as an adult & wabbit went out too quick for him at 49.9 given that he's probably worth 1'44.5 - 1'44.75 off ideal pace & shoud be capable of 12'50 ( his 12'53 was 3y ago ) 12'50 with 1'44.75 -> ~ 3'28.27 7'22.71 1'44.50 -> ~ 3'27.96 7'22.45 7'22 looks about his current limit he might get close to the 3'27s though !!! |
| past is past |
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Interesting, where do you think Rupp checks out based on his 1:49 and 3:39 for 5K or 10K? Just out of curiosity what if you use 3:37 for his 1500 since that's probably where he's at. |
| hmmm....... |
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ummm... this thread is not about rupp. Please stop the sausage sucking. |
| Negative Net Worth |
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Choge seems to be the best candidate. You could mention Kiprop, but I think Choge is slightly better because of his 3 & 5 times: 7:28 and 12:52. Kiprop might beat him up to a 2000, but that's it. It seems like Choge was stuck in a rut for a few years as far as the times that he was run, but I think breaking 3:30 helps his psyche. |
| spiderwebb |
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Alan Webb in July 2007: 1,500m - 3:30.54 (July 6) Mile - 3:46.91 (July 21) 800m - 1:43.84 (July 28) Augustine Choge in June 2009: 1500m - 3:29.47 (June 14) 800m - 1.44.86 (June 17) Webb 800/1500 total = 5:14.38 Choge 800/1500 total = 5:14.33 Very similar. |
| ventolin |
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not getting any realistic results for him with anything slower than 3'37 if that 1'49 is his absolute flat-out best, then 3'37 -> ~ 7'41.84 13'23.94 28'20.68 3'36 -> ~ 7'37.64 13'14.22 27'53.89 3'35 -> ~ 7'33.43 13'04.50 27'27.11 3'34 -> ~ 7'29.23 12'54.78 27'00.32 last line is becoming unrealistic i don't know the guy well enough apart from reading the odd headlines, but i'd look at the 3'36 or 3'35 lines as a start |
| Negative Net Worth |
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Tergat ran 3:35 and managed sub 7:30. I think Galen would need to do the same. He will at least need to run a 3:36 to break 13 and 27 anyways. I think the 1500 time comes with that kind of strength. |
| Poker |
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I was thinking about this, and I think he's got the best shot of the current crop besides Bekele. If Bekele ever devoted a season to 5,000s and down I think he'd be close. Choge is great off of a fast pace. He sticks his nose in there and can hang with a sub 4 mile to start off a race. He's young and very good at the 5000 as well. If he can improve to 3:28 and then yield a 12:45 range 5000 then we could see something special. I think he tops out at 7:22, but that's still a phenomenal mark. |
| East Coast Weirdo |
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I think every thread is about Rupp now. No? |
| well. |
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That is exactly what he did in 2007. The problem was that he (comparatively) started to suck at longer distances. |
| xxx |
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not as young as you think. |
| BBT |
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I don't see the 3K record going down anytime too soon. I'm not sure the 1:44.86 today tells us anything we wouldn't already expect based on his 1500m either. Komen didn't have 1500m credentials any better than Choge, but his 5K best was quite a bit faster. Top 3K runners with 1500m/5000m outdoor 'legal' marks (legal in quotes for a reason) Daniel Komen 3:29.5, 7:20.7, 12:39.7 Hicham El Guerrouj 3:26.0, 7:23.1, 12:50.2 Ali Saïdi-Sief, 3:29.5, 7:25.0, 12:50.9 Haile Gebrselassie, 3:33.7, 7:25.1, 12:39.4 Noureddine Morceli, 3:27.4, 7:25.1, 13:03.8 Kenenisa Bekele, 3:32.4, 7:25.8, 12:37.4 Mohammed Mourhit, 3:36.1, 7:26.6, 12:49.7 Moses Kiptanui, 3:34.0, 7:27.2, 12:54.8 Luke Kipkosgei, 3:35.5, 7:27.6, 12:56.5 Eliud Kipchoge, 3:33.2, 7:27.7, 12:46.5 No reason to believe he can't crack this list -- but below 7:24 seems unlikely. |
| 1A Bafana |
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That record of Komen's has to be one of the outstanding records of all time. Interstingly, what are Komen's comparitive times to Choge over 800m and 1500m, as well as 5000m. That may shed some light on where we think Choge is. |
| epopians |
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Should either Mourhit's or Saidi-Sief's names be on that list after being busted for PED's? Yes they ran those times, but surely one of the punishments for using drugs is that anything they did prior must be in serious doubt. I mean, if Ramzi is found positive and kicked out, we (I would hope) should pretty much ignore his 3:29 from a few years ago. |
| nwsman |
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The problem - really - is that there are no pace setters capable of running 2000m+ at 7:20 pace. Komen had pacers take him through 4:53 for 2000m! The other Kenyan runners adored this guy and really wanted thim to break the record. It is very hard to do more than - say 1000m - solo and get 7:20. This was El G's problem and he paid for it in the later stages of his race. |
| irun |
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If Choge could also run a 12:40 5000m, then yes, i'd say he'd have a shot at breaking Komen's 3k WR, but Choge's 5000m PR is 12:47? 12:53? still a ways away. |
| Art Vandelay |
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choge will not break 7:25. |
| opsa |
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The problem is that you warely have weally good wabbits in the waces. |
| middle distance |
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The problem is that you warely have weally good wabbits in the waces.[/quote] That's the funniest thing I've seen this week! ;0) |
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