POD in my opinion:
POD in my opinion:
"it really continues to amaze me that people think this kid is only good for 27:20-27:25 and 13:10-13:15! i'll give the benefit of the doubt to some of them and assume they just have never seen him run or really have no idea when and where he set his "prs". "
Doesn't take much to amaze some people.
Rupp will not break 13 or 27, maybe the numbers quoted above, but that's about it, and even that is generous.
I think Rupp is really amazing, but I think predicting sub 13 for him this season is a bit much.
Let's do the math here. Chelenga recently ran a 27:28 and a "tired" Rupp looked like he was jogging against him. This alone is proof that he's way better than his PR.
Chelanga more recently ran a 13:30, so you're an idiot.
burnt out ducky wrote:
"it really continues to amaze me that people think this kid is only good for 27:20-27:25 and 13:10-13:15! i'll give the benefit of the doubt to some of them and assume they just have never seen him run or really have no idea when and where he set his "prs". "
Doesn't take much to amaze some people.
Rupp will not break 13 or 27, maybe the numbers quoted above, but that's about it, and even that is generous.
just out of curiousity, rupp took daba to the wire and lost by 3/10 of a second indoors. less than 2 weeks after racing rupp daba got 3rd in praha running 13:21 and beating Daniel Kipchirchir Komen by 8 seconds. in case you've never heard of him he is a 3:29, 3:48, 7:31 guy. daba just ran 13:02.
the indoor 2009 world rankings:
13:07.83 Abreham Cherkos ETH 23/09/1989 1 Praha (O2 Arena) 26/02/2009
13:09.37 Paul Kipsiele Koech KEN 10/11/1981 2 Praha (O2 Arena) 26/02/2009
13:17.89 Bekana Daba ETH 29/07/1988 1 Fayetteville, AR 13/02/2009
13:18.12 Galen Rupp USA 08/05/1986 2 Fayetteville, AR 13/02/2009
13:19.79 Samuel Chelanga KEN 23/02/1985 3 Fayetteville, AR 13/02/2009
13:21.67 Bekana Daba 3 Praha (O2 Arena) 26/02/2009
13:25.69 James Kwalia C'Kurui QAT 12/06/1984 1 Düsseldorf 13/02/2009
13:26.34 Essa Ismail Rashed QAT 14/12/1986 2 Düsseldorf 13/02/2009
13:27.33 Robert Sigei Kipngetich KEN 03/01/1982 3 Düsseldorf 13/02/2009
13:29.44 Daniel Kipchirchir Komen KEN 27/11/1984 4 Praha (O2 Arena) 26/02/2009
13:30.13 Wilson Kiprop KEN 1987 4 Düsseldorf 13/02/2009
13:30.17 Jonas Cheruiyot KEN 11/01/1984 5 Düsseldorf 13/02/2009
13:31.71 Markos Geneti ETH 07/06/1984 4 Fayetteville, AR 13/02/2009
cherkos leads that list at 13:07 and has run 7:32 & 12:54 outdoors. he ran 12:57 last year. incidentally his 1500 pr is 3 seconds slower than rupps.
i guess my question is, if you have a guy who is clearly at or under the 13:10 & 27:10 range now and seems to really be on the upswing, why do you conclusively say that he will NEVER break 13:00 or 27:00? on the 13:00, what did Kennedy have that Rupp doesn't? legspeed? not really. strength? not really. what he had was summer after summer of racing in rabbited european races. the whole "no white man under 27:00" seems a lot like the old "no man under 4:00 in the mile". we all know how that ended up. now we have guys going under 4:00 to close out 5k's.
perspectivation wrote:
i guess my question is, if you have a guy who is clearly at or under the 13:10 & 27:10 range now
That's your mistake right there. Rupp lovers, take note.
Truth hurts donut wrote:
perspectivation wrote:i guess my question is, if you have a guy who is clearly at or under the 13:10 & 27:10 range now
That's your mistake right there. Rupp lovers, take note.
So he just races and beats those kinds of runners, but is not one himself? Riiiiiight.
On a serious note, and please give a serious answer, not a biased "i don't WANT rupp to be that fast" answer, do the detractors honestly think that Rupp is not as good as he was last summer? Would you be willing to admit that he might be faster now?
gatcha wrote:
So he just races and beats those kinds of runners, but is not one himself? Riiiiiight.
Here are some of the people J.L. Barrios beat in the Olympic 5000 final:
C'Kirui: 12:54 PR
Lagat: 12:59 PR
Longosiwa: 12:52 PR
Teg: 13:04 PR, beat him by 13 seconds
So Barrios is a sub 13:00 runner. Riiiiight.
...and Stefano Baldini is a sub 2:05 marathoner.
Make no mistake, I am on the Rupp bandwagon. I hope he runs 27:00 and sub 13. But...
The OP is comparing an American collegiate runner who focuses on three seasons (XC, indoor and outdoor) to someone he *almost* beat. Rupp was in phenomenal shape in a season the American collegiate system forces its runners into focusing on. Basing a person's PB ability on his ability to beat or almost beat other runners, especially in the Daba example, is merely conjecture and speculation.
And when you start comparing athletes who are twice removed (e.g. Rupp *almost* beat someone who beat this other guy who ran this time so he can probably also run this time) is getting a bit ridiculous.
I beat Jason Pyrah in a 10k once. But I am still only 4:20 miler. I am okay with that.
Next year for Rupp. Too many college races this year.
Eric B. wrote:
...and Stefano Baldini is a sub 2:05 marathoner.
Make no mistake, I am on the Rupp bandwagon. I hope he runs 27:00 and sub 13. But...
The OP is comparing an American collegiate runner who focuses on three seasons (XC, indoor and outdoor) to someone he *almost* beat. Rupp was in phenomenal shape in a season the American collegiate system forces its runners into focusing on. Basing a person's PB ability on his ability to beat or almost beat other runners, especially in the Daba example, is merely conjecture and speculation.
And when you start comparing athletes who are twice removed (e.g. Rupp *almost* beat someone who beat this other guy who ran this time so he can probably also run this time) is getting a bit ridiculous.
I beat Jason Pyrah in a 10k once. But I am still only 4:20 miler. I am okay with that.
---------------------------------------------------
Well how about the guys in his olympic final? I feel like now someone is going to start coming up with excuses why Rupp beat a bunch of guys with substantially faster PR's instead of just admitting that he showed up, with much less international experience than most of the africans and europeans and beat them guys. Do people really think Rupp has slipped backward since the Olympics?
I am not saying the guy is cracking 27:00 or 13:00 this year but I think he is very close to that now as a runner just as any 13:05 and 27:10 runner is very close.
FYI didn't he beat Geneti in both his 3K & 5K indoors?
Geneti Markos ETHSex Weight Height Date of Birth Place of birth
M 61.00 1.83 07/06/1984 Wolega
Personal Best - Outdoor
Performance Wind Place Date
1500 Metres 3:33.83 Stockholm 26/07/2005
3000 Metres 7:38.11 Carson, CA 22/05/2005
Two Miles 8:19.61 Carson, CA 21/05/2006
5000 Metres 13:00.25 Paris Saint-Denis 01/07/2005
Personal Best - Indoor
Performance Wind Place Date
3000 Metres 7:32.69 Birmingham, GBR 17/02/2007
Two Miles 8:08.39 Birmingham 20/02/2004
5000 Metres 13:31.71 Fayetteville, AR 13/02/2009
Progression - Outdoor
Season Performance Wind Place Date
1500 Metres 2005 3:33.83 Stockholm 26/07/2005
2001 3:41.28 Zanzibar 28/10/2001
3000 Metres 2005 7:38.11 Carson, CA 22/05/2005
2004 7:42.24 Monaco 18/09/2004
2003 7:50.05 Gresham, OR 17/05/2003
2002 7:50.58 Bruxelles 30/08/2002
2001 7:55.82 Debrecen 14/07/2001
Two Miles 2006 8:19.61 Carson, CA 21/05/2006
5000 Metres 2008 13:08.22 Ostrava 12/06/2008
2007 13:07.65 Braaschaart 21/07/2007
2006 13:13.98 Oslo 02/06/2006
2005 13:00.25 Paris Saint-Denis 01/07/2005
2004 13:17.57 Bergen 11/06/2004
2003 13:11.87 Stockholm 05/08/2003
2002 13:28.83 Kingston, JAM 16/07/2002
Progression - Indoor
Season Performance Wind Place Date
3000 Metres 2009 7:46.74 Boston (Roxbury), MA 07/02/2009
2008 7:41.81 Boston (Roxbury), MA 26/01/2008
2007 7:32.69 Birmingham, GBR 17/02/2007
2006 7:44.6 Birmingham 18/02/2006
2005 7:40.72 Fayetteville, AR 11/02/2005
2004 7:37.0 Birmingham 20/02/2004
2003 7:40.83 Karlsruhe 28/02/2003
2002 7:47.90 Boston (Roxbury), MA 27/01/2002
Two Miles 2008 8:16.49 Birmingham, GBR 16/02/2008
2006 8:17.39 Birmingham 18/02/2006
2005 8:14.28 Birmingham 18/02/2005
2004 8:08.39 Birmingham 20/02/2004
5000 Metres 2009 13:31.71 Fayetteville, AR 13/02/2009
Honours
Rank Performance Wind Place Date
1500 Metres
10th IAAF World Championships in Athletics 12 sf 3:42.80 Helsinki 08/08/2005
3000 Metres
3rd IAAF World Athletics Final 9 f 7:41.76 Monaco 09/09/2005
2nd IAAF World Athletics Final 6 f 7:42.24 Monaco 18/09/2004
10th IAAF World Indoor Championships 3 f 7:57.87 Budapest (SA) 06/03/2004
2nd IAAF/Westel World Youth Championships 1 f 7:55.82 Debrecen 14/07/2001
5000 Metres
5th IAAF World Athletics Final 11 f 13:50.98 Stuttgart 23/09/2007
IAAF/Coca Cola World Junior Championships 2 f 13:28.83 Kingston, JAM
It just starts to seem like some people are hoping to will him out of being at the next level (not you but others) based on personal reasons rather than really looking at what he's done and how he's been racing over the past 10 months.
Goucher:
http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/biographies/country=usa/athcode=132608/index.htmlTeg:
http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/biographies/country=usa/athcode=181859/index.htmlMeb:
http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/biographies/country=usa/athcode=136180/index.htmlLooking at where they were at 19 years old and at 23 years old from every distance from 1500-10K none of these guys were near where Rupp is, Goucher ran around 13:10 3 times (despite being injured for a lot of his prime years) and Teg has done 13:04 and 13:07. Meb mustered one mark under 13:20 (13:11) but yet ran several times at 27:20-27:13.
For some real perspective
Kennedy:
http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/biographies/country=usa/athcode=1377/index.htmlThought it was interesting that Rupp is already basically at Kennedy's 1500 & Mile PR's, ahead of his indoor 3K PR and his 10K PR. Also suprised how many times Bob finished 9th or better in the 5K at world championships (supposedly in the hayday of EPO) and how slow is times were. His top finish was 5th with 13:42! Be interesting to know what his last 1K was and how far out of the medals he was.
To be fair, Rupp has only run hard twice this year. DMR Indoors banging down guys that have run 3:39 and his 5K indoors.
Looks like an All Star to me, and I was a skeptic.
Guy is an All Timer, will only get better, could have run anything when he ran 2:25 coming in, could have been 2:23 easily.There are very few Americans that can run 2:25 coming in off any pace and he could have run, pressed to the line 2:22 if he had to.
trialswatcher wrote:
To be fair, Rupp has only run hard twice this year. DMR Indoors banging down guys that have run 3:39 and his 5K indoors.
Looks like an All Star to me, and I was a skeptic.
Guy is an All Timer, will only get better, could have run anything when he ran 2:25 coming in, could have been 2:23 easily.There are very few Americans that can run 2:25 coming in off any pace and he could have run, pressed to the line 2:22 if he had to.
To piggy back off you, this is directed to the cats who say "he'll never beat the africans" or "he'll never do anything internationally"
Take a look at Geb's "Honours" most of the way down the page. Look how many races he won or medalled in either indoors or out from 3K-10K, and look at the times he posted. With Rupps racing ability and closing speed you may want to rethink a little, very, very few of those are out of Rupps current range:
http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/biographies/country=eth/athcode=8774/index.html2:01ish lash 800 with a 56.5 last lap for a 27:18 final in sydney 2000.
Eric B. wrote:
And when you start comparing athletes who are twice removed (e.g. Rupp *almost* beat someone who beat this other guy who ran this time so he can probably also run this time) is getting a bit ridiculous.
It called Six Degrees of Galen Rupp. its the latest craze on Letsrun.
Glen Newpoint wrote:
Eric B. wrote:And when you start comparing athletes who are twice removed (e.g. Rupp *almost* beat someone who beat this other guy who ran this time so he can probably also run this time) is getting a bit ridiculous.
It called Six Degrees of Galen Rupp. its the latest craze on Letsrun.
Ivory, don't lose these threads. They will be very fun to dig up soon!
2:42 for the 9th kilometer followed by a 2:30 last 1K and a :56 last lap for Geb at a 27:24 world championship gold. closed in 1:57 over the last 800 going 61-56.
Rupps 3:00 last 1200 in the 10K and 2:55 last 1200 in the 5K (both while jogging in) are starting to look pretty good. In the 5K he could have easily hit 2:23 for the last 1K and 2:53 for the last 1200 and in the 10K without that slow 100 from 1000-900 meters out he probably would have been 2:56 for the last 1200 and 2:26 for the last 1K.
The real question is what pace can he handle and still come up with an all out 2:30? I think a last 1K in 2:33 and finish of 27:27 was a medal in Athens with Geb and Tergat in the race.
Truth hurts donut wrote:
gatcha wrote:So he just races and beats those kinds of runners, but is not one himself? Riiiiiight.
Here are some of the people J.L. Barrios beat in the Olympic 5000 final:
C'Kirui: 12:54 PR
Lagat: 12:59 PR
Longosiwa: 12:52 PR
Teg: 13:04 PR, beat him by 13 seconds
So Barrios is a sub 13:00 runner. Riiiiight.
I doubt you knew you were doing this, but you just proved the point!
http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/biographies/letter=b/athcode=181932/index.htmlHere's a guy that doesn't do 5K's or 10K's in europe where all the top marks are set so people label him as someone who can't break 13:00 but then he goes out and nails a bunch of guys with much faster PR's than him in Beijing. You're kidding yourself if you don't think he can get down to 13:00-13:05.
RIP: D3 All-American Frank Csorba - who ran 13:56 in March - dead
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
Running for Bowerman Track Club used to be cool now its embarrassing
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year
Hats off to my dad. He just ran a 1:42 Half Marathon and turns 75 in 2 months!