ventolin wrote:
as for kennster, he is not a 3'29/3'30 guy & probably never will be - his intrinsic 400 speed is too slow to get him there - he's running 3'32/3'33 ( albeit poorly paced ) off his endurance ( & i've seen everyone of his 1500s - he was at his absolute limit on the last lap in everyone of them - just slow 3rd laps costing him 1 - 2s )
i can see him going 3'31-flat, but he won't go below that
geb had better 400 ability than kennster & just fractionally inferior endurance ( they wouda been ~ equal at 5k ( but with slight leaning towards geb ), but kennster is probably 2 - 3s superior over 10k ) & that allowed him to run 3'31i ( = no worse than 3'30-flat outdoors & probably nearer 3'29-flat )
I know it is your favorite routine to play your little numbers game where you write out times over various distances and then make ironclad statements about what an athlete could or could not do, or could or could not have done, at other distances if they ran/had run them. Most of the times you are pulling these predictions out of thin air.
There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that Geb had better 400 ability than Bekele. They didn't run open 400's, so it is pure conjecture. As far as kicks are concerned, Bekele's is/has been every bit as explosive and quick as Geb's, Yes, kicks are related to endurance too, but as evidenced by Geb's little foray into the marathon, I would say has a little bit in that department too (not to mention his 5k and 10k times). In Paris 2003 WC's, Bekele ran away from Geb like he was standing still in the last 200. Yes, that was also related to endurance and age, but the way Bekele did it, with utter ease, leads me to believe that Geb in his prime would have still been outkicked in that race (realize that in 2003, Geb was not that far off peak condition. He ran, what was is it, 26:29 that year? And his sub 13:00 2nd 5k in Paris behind Bekele was an all time great performance of his, even though he lost.
When Geb ran his great 1500 times indoors, he spent an entire indoor season focusing on the shorter races (1500 & 3k), culminating his double WC victory. He even took on El G, and targeted in the indoor 1500 record which he just missed. Bekele on the other hand, has only run 1500's as afterthoughts. We don't know what he can do there, but I highly doubt his ability in that race is much different than Geb's. But we may never know his full ability unless he spends a whole season, like Geb did, focusing on the 1500/3k. This is a season opener, and after an injury, so even this race won't tell us his full potential in the 1500.