All-time best American 5000m Performances

Fastnbulbous wrote:

Derrick and Fernandez could be capable of sub-13:10 by summer '10, but it may be longer for the sake of their collegiate seasons. In 2-3 years, Puskedra, Coe, Estrada, Lowe and others should also be in that league too.

I think you're being way too optimistic with your predictions here. Yes, German could have a shot at sub-13:10 a year from now, but that's despite his 13:31, not because of it. The truth is: his indoor races are what make me believe he can run a really fast 5k. That, and that he's been injured and that this was his first 5k. Not the time he just ran. As for Derrick, he is less likely to improve as much on his 5k time in the next year because his training has been more consistent and he's now run at least four 5k's on the track. I still see him under 13:20 a year from now, but probably not 13:10. Not yet anyways. Puskedra will improve on his 13:46, but Coe dropped out (never a good sign) and Estrada and Lowe have a long ways to go: they're probably hoping to run 13:30's by next year, not 13:teens.

Wow. Thanks for the list. This underscores, once more, just how good BK was. He owns 14 of the top 20 American performances — 70%.

Let's hope that the new batch of runners can whittle away at that. He set a high standard for them, that's for sure.

I did not predict Derrick or Fernandez breaking 13:10 during collegiate season. I meant they'd be capable of it the following summer in a fast European race, but I have doubts they will do that just yet. I agree that Puskedra, Estrada, Lowe and Coe would do well to run 13:30's next year. That's why I said 2-3 years.

Fastnbulbous wrote:

So in one sense, we've come a long way, considering that a lot of people seem disappointed that an 18 year-old coming off an injury only ran 13:31, merely ten seconds off what was once Steve Prefontaine's American Record.

What is the Olympic Trials record? Who hold it? "We" haven't come a long way.

I'd throw Hassan Mead and Andrew Bumbalough in the mix as well. Mead for obvious reasons. Bumbalough seems to have gotten lost in the mix, but coming off a serious achilles injury that kept him out of indoors to place 8th in Heat 1, 2 seconds back from Chelanga is huge. PRed by 10 seconds. I think he is being underestimated.

Interestingly, Kennedy has 16 of the top 18 times if you take out Lagat and Maree who "became" Americans during their already fast careers. That is the stat that really speaks about our systems here and our development. Only Teg has two spots among BK's top times.

the ghost of Richard Chelimo wrote:

Interestingly, Kennedy has 16 of the top 18 times if you take out Lagat and Maree who "became" Americans during their already fast careers. That is the stat that really speaks about our systems here and our development. Only Teg has two spots among BK's top times.

BK gets nowhere near the love he deserves, especially considering that he pushed himself to be that fast during a time when he was already far and away the top American. Really exemplifies the drive it takes to compete internationally in a sport that is largely ignored by the domestic sports fans.

Catch Me If You Can wrote:

I think you're being way too optimistic with your predictions here. Yes, German could have a shot at sub-13:10.

Contradicting yourself in just two sentences. Congradulations.

TheChopper wrote:

Catch Me If You Can wrote:

I think you're being way too optimistic with your predictions here. Yes, German could have a shot at sub-13:10.

Contradicting yourself in just two sentences. Congradulations.

And you spelled congratulations as "congradulations." Congradulations on that.

This list shows just how off the mark proclimations that Rupp or Teg are capable of sub 13:00 are. If you look at Kennedy you see the career of a typical sub 13 guy. He had a best of 12:57 and broke 13:10 like a dozen times. And he barely got it by three seconds. Rupp has a best of 13:18 and Teg has broken 13:10 twice. To make that extra drop would take an almost impossible leap. Now, if Teg ran 13:08's week in-week out, or if Rupp had two or three 27:10's under his belt, then yes, we can realistically expect them to be on the verge of a sub 13. But as it is, Tegs 13:04 and Rups 27:33 are probably already their breakthrough performance.

Fastnbulbous wrote:

I hope to see Rupp run a fast 5K in Europe this summer. What would be really interesting is to see him double at WC. Teg and Solinsky hopefully have some faster races left in them, though both are coming off of injuries. Derrick and Fernandez could be capable of sub-13:10 by summer '10, but it may be longer for the sake of their collegiate seasons. In 2-3 years, Puskedra, Coe, Estrada, Lowe and others should also be in that league too.

Why we gotta wait for all the young guys?

If you look at these boards its like its a foregone conclusion that guys like Pifer, Vaughn, Dobson, Curtis and many other post-collegiates have no room for improvement where as every true freshman out there is destined to be a world beater.

I still maintain that in over the past two years (with the exception of the latter parts of the 2008 season) Teg would have been a sub 1310 guy week in and week out. He didnt really take very many stabs at a fast 5,000. He pretty much ran that 1304 and the other sub 1310, and I can only think of one or two, maybe three other times in the last 2 years that he actually took a stab at a fast 5. He ran a lot of 1500s and 3000s.

I think you're right about Teg. Living in the US makes it very hard to find a lot of sub 13:00 races. But statistics show that almost all guys who break 13:00, even just once, run a shitload of sub 13:10's. The exception is the world beaters at 1500 like Lagat and Maree. But I don't think Teg falls under that catagory. He should've asked Kennedy how he managed to run in Europe so often.

R-Tip wrote:

This list shows just how off the mark proclimations that Rupp or Teg are capable of sub 13:00 are. If you look at Kennedy you see the career of a typical sub 13 guy. He had a best of 12:57 and broke 13:10 like a dozen times. And he barely got it by three seconds. Rupp has a best of 13:18 and Teg has broken 13:10 twice. To make that extra drop would take an almost impossible leap. Now, if Teg ran 13:08's week in-week out, or if Rupp had two or three 27:10's under his belt, then yes, we can realistically expect them to be on the verge of a sub 13. But as it is, Tegs 13:04 and Rups 27:33 are probably already their breakthrough performance.

Can you read? BK's pr = 12:58. He went under 13:10 14 times, not, "like a dozen times." Also, Rupp is still in college. By no means is his 27:33 his "breakthrough" performance. And to the other poster talking about how we are all on the jocks of the true freshmen: These guys just ran an American record. I think they have a pretty good upswing in their careers. Jesus, if Derrick and German and Rupp don't have a shot at breaking 13:00, who the hell does?

jerkstore wrote:

Also, Rupp is still in college. By no means is his 27:33 his "breakthrough" performance.

Then what is? He is now 23. He ran 27:33 two years ago. Since then he has not gone any faster. But all of a sudden when he is 25 he is gonna be a 27:15 guy? I don't think so.

i definetely think rupp will run faster starting in 2010, the european meets are set up to run fast, the college meets with rare exceptions are not.

Douglas, thank you for some reason. My gawd, Rupp will certainly run faster for the 10k. Did you see the guy in the last year? I think he'll go sub 27:20 this summer and somewhere between 26:55-27:09 in 2010, when he is the ripe old age of 25. He will have the American record in the 10k within 18 months.

cardinalfan wrote:

I'd throw Hassan Mead and Andrew Bumbalough in the mix as well. Mead for obvious reasons. Bumbalough seems to have gotten lost in the mix, but coming off a serious achilles injury that kept him out of indoors to place 8th in Heat 1, 2 seconds back from Chelanga is huge. PRed by 10 seconds. I think he is being underestimated.

Ummm...ever heard of Evan Jager?

I like bumbalough. Ive been a fan ever since I watched him torch the footlocker south course. But he will never run under 13 min for a 5k.