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| Ghost of German Past |
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First of all, it's both cool and pitiful that we are more excited about how our juniors will do at the world cross country championships. Cool because they are the future so it gives us something to look forward too. Cool also, because typically the westerners tend to develop later than the East Africans when it comes to distance running. Combine that with a complete lack of proof of age for the East African "juniors" and the junior race is often regarded as a tougher race to place high than the senior race. So the fact that we have some young guys competing for the teens or possibly single digit finish spots is pretty cool. Pitiful because we don't have enough depth in seniors or enough seniors with the balls to go race the top core of distance runners in the world. I understand for the guys that have a big marathon coming up, but other than that, what the hell are you running for? Anyway back to the juniors, IMHO I see the race unfolding as follows. German goes out top ten with the idea in his head that he may be able to just steal the show. He realizes quickly that moving up from 10th to first is not going to happen because 1st will be moving away at the same rate or faster than he is moving forward. He puts the hammer down to get in the top five and around 5-6K is not liking how it feels to run all out and have no shot of winning, panic sets in. Luke runs aggressively but in comparison to German more measured. Luke moves into the top 10 by 5K and has his sights on German. Derrick has been sticking on Luke like a fly on sh@t (much like during the past cross season) with Gregson stuck on him. Over the last 1K German is hurting and is no longer running for 1st in the race, but to be the first non-african and he has 3 contenders not far behind him. Panic sets in harder. Luke makes a hard charge and separates from Derrick (like at NCAA cross) and Gregsons lack of strength finally kicks in as Derrick tries to go with Puskedra. Puskedra 7th Fernandez 9th Derrick 10th Gregson 15th At least one of the top 3 goes on to run 12:5X this summer and German will go close to 13:10, but the future is bright for these young westerners. Feel free to predict otherwise. We'll see what happens on the big day. |
| Ghost of German Past |
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At least one of the top 3 goes on to run 12:5X this summer and German will go close to 13:10, but the future is bright for these young westerners. quote] Let me be clear, this was the top 3 in the race going 12:5x, meaning one of the africans. |
| douglas burke |
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my picks 1. ayele abshero- beat keninesa bekele in a 15k road run in november at age 17 2. kenyan, who is unknown due to no sea level track times 3. kenyan, also with no current sea level track times. 4. fernandez- inside the top 5 he is legit. 23rd. gregson 37th pudeskra 39th derrick |
| wanna be junior x-country star |
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Top non Africans 6.German 7.Gregson 13.Luke 16.Young Norwegian who is only 17 i believe 25.Derrick |
| douglas burke |
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the norwegian kids name is sondre norstad moen. i always wondered why he has not been talked about more on letsrun, as young non-african prospects are usually talked about a lot on this site. |
| Ghost of German Past |
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Wow, are you predicting Puskedra and Derrick to go out in the top 3 and just blow up over the last 2K or get sick before the race? You do remember these two leading the chase pack at NCAA's right? In Luke's 2009 indoor debut and all time 5K debut just went 13:46 and Derrick's 2009 indoor debut and 2nd 5K went 13:44 all alone. And unlike German I really think their coaches have been keeping them on a strength oriented regimine. Fernandez I can understand. But Gregson's PR is 14:14 from last year. Derrick ran 13:55 at Arcadia (a high school meet) solo, closing in 8:49. That was early in the season and he didn't get to run another one because he was injured. Luke ran tough all cross season, sticking his nose in every race he was in and only two people ever showed they were clearly better than him in the NCAA, Rupp and Chelenga. A few people were able to pass him over the last quarter mile or half mile of a few races, but that's mostly due to the fact that he did a lot of pack leading during the race. http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=ncaa+cross+country+2008&hl=en&emb=0&aq=0&oq=ncaa+cro# |
| douglas burke |
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no i dont think they could go with the leaders for the 5k. and i am not predicting they will get sick. i just dont think that they are that good YET. i have a hunch that fernandez is for real. |
| dankadanka |
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Let's hear about this kid. I just googled, but everything is in Norse. What's his deal? |
| Catch Me If You Can |
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I think it highly unlikely that all 3 Americans and Gregson all run great races at Worlds. If even 2 of them do, that would be awesome because we could see 2 non-Africans crack the top-10. These numbers are totally arbitrary, but just to have a prediction to look back on: 4. Fernandez 9. Derrick 17. Gregson 24. Puskedra. Don't get me wrong; I'm not rooting for these results or even this exact finishing order. But it's similar to predicting the winners of every NFL game on a given Sunday; you have to predict a couple upsets and it's pretty much just a guess as to which teams will show up and which won't. |
| A little reality |
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It took German nearly 8K to catch them at NCAA cross country. German was 25th last year at Junior Worlds. Do you really predict them to be much further back than he was last year? I think they are much better than he was last year, and actually not much slower than he is now. German is amazingly talented. But it's pretty clear that his lack luster performance at NCAA's even before he dropped out served to motivate him through December and January and he came into that first mile race with a lot to prove. Chris and Luke on the other hand had already proved a lot at the NCAA championships. They did what they should have and took a full mental and physical break before starting to ramp up again. As amazing as German's USA junior x-c victory was, it was really one guy who was very read VS. two other guys who showed up to qualify and give there best efforts. Luke hadn't even raced since November. German is more talented, no doubt. But I think these guys will close the margin down at worlds. It's not like German came out of a cocoon right after NCAA cross country. He is on a tear mentally, and he is very talented physically. We already knew that from last summer. However the fall showed who he is as a cross country runner. Damn good, but not on another planet in comparison to Luke and Chris. |
| the rocket |
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1. German Fernandez 2. Ayele Abshero 3. Kenyan 4. Kenyan 5-8 other African countries 9. Puskedra 10. Derrick 15. Ryan Gregson |
| douglas burke |
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he just turned 18 on january 12th, his times are 1500- 3:54 3k-8:12 5k-14:02 10k- 29:21 3ksteeple 9:10 |
| bennyb0y |
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altitude and conditions will play a factor. only 1000m 3000ft but a concern still. advantage africans |
| douglas burke |
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just a side note last year in the world xc. 25th german fernandez 28th sondre norstad moen 31st ryan gregson |
| Ghost of German Past |
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If that is true you are absolutely right. This may help Luke too since he grew up in Utah. 3000 feet makes a huge difference when you are running all out, especially for 8K, and you are used to sea level. These guys will need to go out more conservative and try to be in the mid 20's at halfway if they want a shot at top 10, otherwise it could be some major O2 debt. |
| trollism |
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Speaking of young stars. AFD keep churning them out. Check out this girl. http://www.athleticsdata.com/athletes/profile.aspx?athleteid=17124 |
| J.R. |
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1- fernandez 15- derrick 16- puskedra 35- gregson |
| Keep it interesting |
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At least one or two will fold out of these 4. Someone said it's at altitude. Puskedra 11th Fernandez 12th Gregson 19th Derrick 25th I see Fernandez going for it, hitting the altitude debt and competition wall and fading over the last 2K. I see Luke being patient staying in the chase group pack and slowly picking a few people off during the last 3K. When he sees German vulnerable, that will be his new goal. I believe he has experience racing at altitude and that is valuable. I see Derrick trying to stick on Luke but panicking a bit at the lack of oxygen, giving into that fear and fading slowly. I see Gregson spotting all 3 in the beginning and waiting till 5K before making a run at them, not realizing how strong Luke and German are. |
| The Concrete Douchebag |
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To the OP, you know in every race this year, German has gone out a decent amount behind the leaders, and then moves up by the end of the race to make his move up front. He never goes out over his head. I'm sure he'll go out a little harder than normal because it would be tough to gauge. I don't think he'll go out like an idiot, however. Dave Smith taught him to race well. |
| letsrun.com |
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1000m is hardly "at altitude". It will make a small difference, but this isn't exactly Boulder. More like Nebraska (average altitude of ~800m). Don't think I've ever heard of people complaining about altitude in Nebraska. |
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