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not so far buddy
RE: Kelly Jaske story 1/30/2009 12:26PM - in reply to Avocados Number Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Avocados Number wrote:

Of course, all of this talk about normal and Gaussian distributions is a bit of a diversion from the main point, which "not so fast buddy" continually dances around--


The point is, Kelly ran a time that is validly supported to equal 1:02+ for a man (to put it in perspective for the men out there), and certainly ranks her high enough to compete with some of the best in the world.


Mercier calculator is a silly little toy that produces nothing remotely close to a reasonable assessment of athletic performances. Nobody on this thread has yet come up with any cogent defense of the Mercier calculator.



See post above (along with the other gazillion times I've objectively defended it). Using words such as "silly little toy" doesn't give you much of a credible defense for your supposed argument.
not so far buddy
RE: Kelly Jaske story 1/30/2009 12:30PM - in reply to Avocados Number Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Avocados Number wrote:

You're still dodging the question about why you have asserted that the Mercier calculator is the "only valid" tool for comparing men's and women's times.


For the love of God (if there is a God), read my posts.
Avocados Number
RE: Kelly Jaske story 1/30/2009 12:48PM - in reply to airbear Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

airbear wrote:

I did not misunderstand the context. I am simply stating this: if a distribution curve is positively skewed, then it is not normal. And I think we would agree that the men's distribution more closely approximates normal than does the women's distribution, although perhaps neither of them meets requirements for normality necessary for the application of parametric statistics.
I'm not disagreeing with your statement that "if a distribution curve is positively skewed, then it is not normal." But I am disagreeing with the assumption that the men's distribution more closely approximates normal than does the women's distribution -- not because I know that the men's distribution isn't more closely approximated by a normal curve, but rather because the assumption isn't justified by the observation that the "spreads" between top-end performances are wider in the women's distribution than they are in the men's. (The distribution of women's marathon times is probably much closer to the distribution of men's marathon times fifty years ago than is the distribution of men's marathon times today. At what point did the distribution of men's marathon times become "normal"?)

Again, however, whether the distribution of times or performances is approximated by a Gaussian curve says very little about whether any of these models are accurate or useful in assessing performances among reasonably good athletes, since almost anyone who trains and competes seriously is going to be at the far end (right or left, depending on the parameter used for the x-axis) of the distribution curve.
Avocados Number
RE: Kelly Jaske story 1/30/2009 1:00PM - in reply to not so far buddy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

not so far buddy wrote:
The point is, Kelly ran a time that is validly supported to equal 1:02+ for a man (to put it in perspective for the men out there), and certainly ranks her high enough to compete with some of the best in the world.


Validly supported by whom? Kelly had an excellent performance -- not equal to 1:02, but outstanding nevertheless. Why can't you celebrate her accomplishment without resorting to hyperbole and outright fiction?
not so far buddy
RE: Kelly Jaske story 1/30/2009 1:09PM - in reply to Avocados Number Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Avocados Number wrote:

Validly supported by whom?


By the Mercier calculator.
Avocados Number
RE: Kelly Jaske story 1/30/2009 1:16PM - in reply to not so far buddy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

not so far buddy wrote:
By the Mercier calculator.


:)
not so far buddy
RE: Kelly Jaske story 1/30/2009 1:55PM - in reply to Avocados Number Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Avocados Number wrote:

:)


Check mate by me. :)
Dusty Bones
RE: Kelly Jaske story 1/30/2009 2:30PM - in reply to not so far buddy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
It occurs to me that if all the mathematics and physics talent on this message board were put to another use, we could have a man on Mars now. Heck, not just a man, some sheep, too.
Avocados Number
RE: Kelly Jaske story 1/30/2009 2:39PM - in reply to Dusty Bones Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

Dusty Bones wrote:

It occurs to me that if all the mathematics and physics talent on this message board were put to another use, we could have a man on Mars now.

It occurs to me that if a man managed to get to Mars, "not so far buddy" would be telling us that it would be the equivalent of a woman driving across the state of Iowa.
26mi235
RE: Kelly Jaske story 1/30/2009 6:14PM - in reply to sez u Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
10 or 11% is a very good rule of thumb. Some of the tables like Mercier get some ridiculous conversions. 2x1:02:17 = 2:04:34, while 2x2:12 -> 2:24:30; now 2:24 is a good time, but it is not in the same ballpark as 2:04. If 1:12+ is 1:02, then 66 or 67 is 'off the chart' for men. I will buy a bit under 65, but not by too much.
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