konami code wrote:
Sounds to me like you have no understanding of the underlying economic conditions -- or even any interest in acquiring that knowledge -- and are simply betting that the future will be much like the past and we'll soon return to 8% average returns. Why do you think that? What makes you think these big job losses are a good sign? Where's the new employment coming from?
I'm not waiting for a green light, just some decent rational analysis. You haven't provided any, here or on any other thread.
Dude, I wasn't trying to provide you with any info to get you to buy back into the market. Makes no difference to me if you do or not. Do it if you want...don't do it if you don't. I just listed the things economists look at. Huge job losses are a good sign in that they typically signal the end of a recession. Decide if you think we're so bad off we can't recover or not. I'm just telling you what the norm is. Also, Buffett and Grantham are two guys to watch, and they say things are looking up down the line. Do with that what you will. Where do the jobs come from? Lots of places. Baby Boomers will continue to retire freeing up jobs. Last I checked people are still being born, and during a recession when individuals and companies stop buying things and stop producing, it's only temporary. Eventually those inventories drop and new production needs to occur (I'm working with several companies in that situation right now). Familes go longer then they used to without a car, but then theirs breaks down. The jobs will return. Again, use whatever criteria you want and decide for yourself if the jobs can come back or not or if the economy can come back or not -- LOTS of ways to spin statistics. Some say the job losses are worse than what is reported, and some say not as bad. Why not as bad? Because many of the job losses were just due to attrition or early retirement -- many of these early retirement job losses are ones that would have been lost in a few years anyway (not saying which side I agree with -- just that there are two different ways to look at that info...as there are at least two different ways to look at just about any info). Again, I'm not pitching one way or the other...not trying to get you to enter the market or not. Just giving you some other things to look at -- there ARE decent signs of a recovery (down the road yet, but a recovery nontheless) if you look hard enough. Decide for yourself if it's enough or not. Makes no difference to me.
Regarding my business knowledge, I have more hands-on experience than many who post here. I work as a consultant and my clients are global clients. I talk to them every day...about what is going on in their slice of the business world. They all work in manufacturing or distribution in some degree using ERP and CRM software along with other types of business software. I read more publications about business and the economy than most here even know exist. Sorry brother, but I know what I'm talking about. Doom and gloom follows every generation -- 1978, 1982, 1987, 1991, 2001, and now 2008. 2008 in most ways is the worst of that group, but it is not yet an unrecoverable situation, and most economists don't believe it is or will be. I'm not trying to convince you brother, and I will eventually be proven correct (that we will recover from the current situation even if it takes 5 years or more). Not sure why you've mentioned a return to 8% growth...that's not a return to the past. The past brought almost 12% growth. Can I see 8%? Yes. It's not THAT much. You are too down on the future based on how the economy is today.
No need to respond to tell me that I haven't convinced you for three reasons:
1) I'm not trying to convince you of anything.
2) I don't have the crystal ball you require to convince you.
3) I couldn't care less what you do with your money.