I still stand with my prediction from October 8, 2008:
...the Dow will keep dropping in an unsteady fashion, with a temporary halt before Christmas somewhere around 7000, plus or minus 500.
Then as the economy fails to turn around and actually gets slowly worse as the quarterly jobs reports and quarterly revenues fall and as certain businesses close doors, each of these reports will shift the dow lower yet.
I predict a levelling off as the down approaches 6000, plus or minus 500, sometime between mid-2009 to mid-2010. It will jiggle up and down for a few months but remaining in this range.
While this is going on we might have a less than one week temporary dip as low as 5000, plus or minus 500, but that won't stick because there will be a rally the next time someone sneezes the tiniest upbeat news because waiting in the wings will be people with cash burning a hole in their pocket who are the undervalued stock bargainhunters.
Once we pull out of the lowest of the low, we will move about 1000 points higher to around the mid-7000s for about 6 months.
After that we will come up to the 9000 range and hover for a year or two waiting for all the economic indicators to recover, which might take a while...
I said 5 years until a complete turnaround and back to 11,000.
*** My rationale -- this is much deeper and much longer than the dot-com burst of late 1999-2000. That slide was NOT predicted to be severe, yet look what happened -- The dow dropped from a temporary (less than 1 year) high of 13,000, down to 10,000 between end of October and December. Then over the next year it reached a stable bottom in the low 8000s, with a very short temporary dip to the low 7000s. Finally when it was over, even with better economic indicators it still took well over 2 years until things got better than the upper 9000s to low 10,000s.
*** So there's my prediction -- general flat line at around 6000, hovering there for a while. Also a partial week dip to around 5000 just once or twice. And a long wait for things to get better.