All right, so I'm running my first 10K next week. I was never a great cross runner in high school, my best time was 18 flat. I'm in great shape now, but I've been training for shorter distances for indoor season. I've put in a bit of base and I ran 18:59 in an easy 5K fun run with no competition a few weeks ago.
What might I expect in terms of a 10K time? I figure I'm strong enough to run in the very low 18s with competition in the 5K. What would that convert to? 37 or 38 minutes? Obviously the race is twice as long, but I've never gone over 5K so I'm just looking for some input.
IF you are as well trained at the longer distance, a reasonable predication is:
(short race time) * (long race distance/short race distance)^1.06
5K time * (10K/5K)^1.06
5K time * (2)^1.06
5K time * 2.085
To be conservative we'll go with a 5K time of 18:30. That converts to a 38:34. 18:00 would convert to a 37:32.
Given your lack of experience at longer distances, I think breaking 38 would be a lofty goal for yourself.
Thanks guys. It's a road race, if that makes any difference.
I've done a 6-mile training run in 42-43 minutes before, and if what you say is true, then between 38 and 40 minutes seems like a good goal for me.