Why Chelanga will not Win Nationals!

Rupp is still the favourite. But, as you say, this is Letsrun, and never saying anything nice about Rupp is probably even more important to us than being contrarian. So, I don't know what to say.

contrarian wrote:

I can't really think of any reason, but this is letsrun.com, so it seemed like a good idea to start a thread like that :)

I hadn't heard of this guy until this week. He seems to have it all.

German will take off with Galen and Chelanga and end up tripping them both.

Chelanga and Rupp will be found to get paid by nike and will be deemed ineligible for NCAA's after a protest is made during regionals and an outside the line story on ESPN comes out the Monday before Nationals

He peaks to early and has a slightly off day at nationals leaving it to Galen for the win, too bad Galen is always slightly off at nationals so Chelanga still wins.

Rupp may have the most talent(something nice), but he does not have what it takes to win anything of merit(something honest).If Rupp wins NCAA's it would be the surprise of the year,

possessor of secrets wrote:

Rupp is still the favourite. But, as you say, this is Letsrun, and never saying anything nice about Rupp is probably even more important to us than being contrarian. So, I don't know what to say.

NativeSon wrote:

contrarian wrote:

I can't really think of any reason, but this is letsrun.com, so it seemed like a good idea to start a thread like that :)

I hadn't heard of this guy until this week. He seems to have it all.

Had an incredible frosh year with FDU. Had some great races at VCP. In his first race he was so far out front he thought he was lost. So he turned around and started back to the pack, only to turn around again and continue on for the win. Sam was 16th at NCAA XC. Sat out last year when switched to LU. Well actually spent the year training with Josh and David as well as the rest of the team.

Sammy is very friendly and full of funny stories.

Great guy.

chelenga=nike wrote:

Chelanga and Rupp will be found to get paid by nike and will be deemed ineligible for NCAA's after a protest is made during regionals and an outside the line story on ESPN comes out the Monday before Nationals

If Rupp's professional status mattered to the NCAA he would never have been allowed to compete for Oregon in the first place.

Chelanga is now the huge favorite, that's for sure. But just to play devil's advocate: he broke McDougal's 8K course record by 5 seconds and McDougal beat Rupp at nationals by 1 second over 10K. Maybe Rupp is 10-15 seconds better this year and that might be enough if Chelanga is only a bit better than McDougal of last year.

Additionally, Chelanga might not hold up as well over 10K. He was "only" 16th as a frosh at '06 Nationals and, if I recall correctly, his best track performances have been 5Ks, not 10Ks. Maybe the extra distance will hurt him enough to bring him back to the field and give Rupp, Kiptoo or Songok (all true 10Kers) a fighting chance.

Just for clarification, I'd be pretty surprised if Chelanga loses and some of the assumptions above (that you can compare McD's and Chelanga's course records transitively or that Chelanga isn't a 10K guy) are sketchy at best. You never know, though. Recall Boaz's stunning loss his senior year or Kip Kangogo's inability to back up his Pre Nats performance?

I must say, overall the course seemed much faster last year looking at the times, which makes Chelanga's time that much more impressive. For example, last year, 50th place in each race was just under 24:10, this year it was about 24:25.

David Tyson from Alabama will win, I guarantee he would of beaten Chelanga if they were in the same race, he just wanted the win, no reason killing your legs if you don't have too this early in the season, before conference, regionals, and nationals. So I think nationals will be a sick race.

1. Tyson Alabama 29:12

2. Chelanga Liberty 29:15

3. Rupp Oregon 29:16

4. Songok Texas AM 29:21

5. Fernandez Oklahoma State 29:28

6. Derrick Florida State 29:32

7. Puskedra Oregon 29:34

8. Kinsella Portland 29:38

9. Vail Oklahoma State 29:43

10. Kiptoo Oregon 29:45

1. Oklahoma State

2. Oregon

3. Alabama

4. Iona

5. Stanford

The best freshman class in history go 5, 6, 7

Ummm...ever heard of Evan Jager?

David McNeill?

favorite what? wrote:

Rupp may have the most talent(something nice), but he does not have what it takes to win anything of merit(something honest).

If Rupp wins NCAA's it would be the surprise of the year,

possessor of secrets wrote:

Rupp is still the favourite. But, as you say, this is Letsrun, and never saying anything nice about Rupp is probably even more important to us than being contrarian. So, I don't know what to say.

Whatever your feelings about the advantages Rupp has been given, he has been training at a very high level now for several years. Hard to say he has more talent than a guy, who by many accounts has just started to take running seriously and has already posted the times he has. Right now based on Rupps extra long summer and Chelanga's recent performances, a best I see him as co-favorite.

By the way, I view "winning" a spot on the olympic team as certainly having merit.

That guy from Lamar has looked like top 5 material, but will probably choke

mitwohner wrote:

Chelanga is now the huge favorite, that's for sure. But just to play devil's advocate: he broke McDougal's 8K course record by 5 seconds and McDougal beat Rupp at nationals by 1 second over 10K. Maybe Rupp is 10-15 seconds better this year and that might be enough if Chelanga is only a bit better than McDougal of last year.

seriously? If Rupp really wanted to win, he would. Remember, last year he had only been training for SIX WEEKS prior to nationals and was only a second behind the winner. If Rupp has trained and wants to win nationals (Remember, it's his senior year so i'm sure that he really wants to win), my money is on him.

screw kenya... go rupp. USA! USA! USA!

when did chris derrick transfer? This morning? I didnt know that was allowed.

look at me more wrote:

mitwohner wrote:

Chelanga is now the huge favorite, that's for sure. But just to play devil's advocate: he broke McDougal's 8K course record by 5 seconds and McDougal beat Rupp at nationals by 1 second over 10K. Maybe Rupp is 10-15 seconds better this year and that might be enough if Chelanga is only a bit better than McDougal of last year.

seriously? If Rupp really wanted to win, he would. Remember, last year he had only been training for SIX WEEKS prior to nationals and was only a second behind the winner. If Rupp has trained and wants to win nationals (Remember, it's his senior year so i'm sure that he really wants to win), my money is on him.

I love this one. If Rupp wanted to win, he would win. So I guess Rupp doesn't really want to win? This certainly would explain everything. Thanks.