Am I about to run a sub-3-hour marathon?

1 out of 10

No chance. Go for 3:10. Good luck.

Ah, but what if I said that my Yasso 800s were in 2:55?

You have the ability based on an 18:01 to run sub 3 right now however, with one long run of 20 miles...nope...go to 3:10 and hold on for dear life.

You need quite a few 20 to 24 milers, to be sure.

You're close so it'll depend on a lot of varibles, weather, course difficulty, pre-race prep, water and gatorade intake during the race, and how fast you start out. You sound young so take a risk and go out at 6:50 pace, hit most of the water stops and see what happens. Of course that's assuming it's not 80 degrees and humid and the course doesn't include Pikes Peak. If it doesn't work out you'll learn from your mistakes and live to marathon another day.

Is this your first marathon? You are fast enough, but you do lack the mileage to keep that pace going. Anything is possible on race day, though. If you really want to qualify for Boston, I suggest going out around a 7:05 pace. If you feel really strong at the half you can go for sub 3. You don't want to risk going out too fast and missing 3:10.

Go out at 3:10 pace and hope for good weather.

_dave_ wrote:...what if I said that my Yasso 800s were in 2:55?

I'd say that means very little, given your light volume. Can you also run 2 x 5k with 4 minute jog rest at ~ 19:50, and finish not feeling entirely spent? Can you also run 12-15 miles at 6:50-55 pace in the middle of a 20 mile run without dying? If you can do those, I'd like your chances a little better.

Assuming this isn't a troll...

You are cruisin' for a bruisin' if you go for 3 hours.

Do what everyone suggests and stick with 3:10. Your mileage is way too low to consider 3 flat. 3:10 will be tough enough; don't make it impossible by going out too fast and blowing up. You did ONE twenty? It's time to face facts: you're not there yet. You are training like a triathlete, and that's ok...for triathlons. If you want to run a "fast" marathon, then you'll need to train like a marathoner for a while.

This year, I put tri on the back burner and focused on running. Steady 50-60 mile weeks for months, Saturday runs the last nine weeks of 16, 17.5, 16, 20, 22, 15, 13.1, 20, and 20, and ten+ weeks of Tuesday 10's.

The 13.1 was a certified half at which I ran 1:23:59. My 5K PR is 17:44; my only two 5K races this year were 17:54 and 18:10. I did weekly progressive Yasso 800's in 2:50-3:00.

I'd like to shoot for 3hr, just like you. I chose a flat fast course (Chicago) with tons of people to latch on to. Based on the above, all the race predictors and pace calculators say it should be doable.

With all that in my favor, I still think that sub-3 or 3-flat will be a best-case scenario for me. For you, the "spectacular disaster" you mentioned is a near certainty, given the training you have described.

Trust me, I've tried it your way before -- it doesn't work. I say don't do it, but it's your race so do what you want.

I wish you luck. Please post back with your results.

mm

What he said. Yasso's give you very little indication of how you'll do, especially on light mileage. Marathons beat you up. Miles per week are the best insulation against that beating...

knowerer of things wrote:

_dave_ wrote:...what if I said that my Yasso 800s were in 2:55?

I'd say that means very little, given your light volume. Can you also run 2 x 5k with 4 minute jog rest at ~ 19:50, and finish not feeling entirely spent? Can you also run 12-15 miles at 6:50-55 pace in the middle of a 20 mile run without dying? If you can do those, I'd like your chances a little better.

how does sub-6:50 pace feel?

how did you feel after the 20-miler?

i'd suggest that this week or early next week, you try some mid-length runs, 7-10 miles, at sub-6:50 pace and see how it feels. if it feels sustainable, then go for sub-3:00

FWIW, i've gone sub-3 six times on similar volume.

ignore the mileage snobs; your tri-training gives you the aerobic base/ability you need. you clearly have the speed. whether you've done enough to hold the pace for 26 is the question.

Your 5K and 15K times are similar to mine but your weekly milage is lower. While I've been running only three days a week and biking another 1-2, I was able to get in several 20 milers this summer. After a disappointing Grandma's Marathon in June, I resumed training for a fall marathon.

My 3:17 marathon PR was set two years ago. I needed 3:15 for a BQ. Last Sunday I ran a 3:12. You can bet I'm happy with that. If I'd switched gears at the last minute and tried to break 3:10, I probably would have fallen apart. that's exactly what happened to me in 2006. I hit the half-way mark on a 3:10 pace; ended up ramping badly in the last coulple miles and finisshing in 3:17.

So based on my sampling of one, I'd say you should do what I did this past weekend: Stay focused on what you need for a BQ. Two weeks out from your race is no time to alter your goal.

john bil wrote:

Miles per week are the best insulation against that beating...

What HE said.

I only did a single 20 (though several 17-19) before my last marathon and it went very well. But I had been doing 70 miles per week for the last three months.

The marathon before this one, I did far fewer miles but hit 10 800s all well under 3 minutes. I thought I was all ready. I crashed and burned hard.

It is so easy to get caught up in whatever single sign from above (cough-Yasso) makes you think you can do it, even if there is plenty of other evidence to the contrary. Sub-3 is like the Holy Grail for serious but not especially talented runners. Lots of people 'go for it' based on wishful thinking. That's why you see so many half splits like these: 1:29/1:49. It hurts just to think about what that feels like.

_dave_ wrote:

Ah, but what if I said that my Yasso 800s were in 2:55?

My Yasso 800s are 2'35" now and I am running 60-65MPW with a 5K PR of 16'52" H/M PR of 1:18'24" and I am shooting for 2:50' (15 min. slower than what Yasso indicated, even I am running much more mileage than you). I have done several 18 milers and plan to do 2 22milers before the marathon (in December).

So, I would suggest go with your 3:10 and be happy with it.

My Yasso 800s are 2'35" now and I am running 60-65MPW with a 5K PR of 16'52" H/M PR of 1:18'24" and I am shooting for 2:50' (15 min. slower than what Yasso indicated, even I am running much more mileage than you). I have done several 18 milers and plan to do 2 22milers before the marathon (in December).

So, I would suggest go with your 3:10 and be happy with it.

Last year I had almost exactly the same indicators. Yasso pace down under 2'40," a couple 5ks under 17 and a half at 1:18:10. About 50 to 60 miles/week, 20 mile long runs. Even a 1:26 half on way to 4:30 half IM (yes I tri, no I don't use Powercranks)

I then tried a marathon with goal of 2:55. Hit it felt good almost easy.

So a month and a half later I toed the line thinking sub 2:50 here I come. Result fist half 1:25 second half 1:42 (ouch). I was actually on pace for 2:50 up to mile 22, that's how bad I blew up. It was humbling.

So to the OP the bottom line is it is your race and everyone is different. But remember this; it is much more fun picking people off at the end then being picked off (that is true for everyone). I think your better off going for 3:10 and having a good race then risking the death march.

If you have spent a lot of time biking then I think you have a decent chance. If you haven't been doing many hard rides of 2.5+ hrs, then I would shoot for a 3:05. That time in your half ironman was outstanding. When I ran my 3:03 PR, I could only manage a 1:38 half in the triathlon.I would go for it and be willing to adjust your pace early if that effort feels strenuous.

Interesting situation. All of your intermediate times are quicker than mine were prior to my first marathon which I ran 2:56, but your mileage is lower. I was in the 50's for most of the training and did two or three 20+ milers prior. If it weren't for the mileage thing, I'd say piece of cake. You could be in for a really thick wall into the low 20's, though, just from an endurance standpoint.

Still, I'd say go for 3:05 and pick it up as you get past 22 if you're doing ok.

Hate to break it to you, but you'll be lucky if you hit 3:10. As has already been stated, you do not have the road pounding under your belt. RESPECT THE DISTANCE. Fool.

What's the rush? Get your BQ, train properly and then go for your sub-3 in Boston.