WHAT WILL SAMMY WANJIRU DEBUT AT IN THE MARATHON THIS WEEKEND?

Right because a 2:08 debut on a hot day where the best marathoners in the world didn't break 2:07:30 (with many dropping out) is the definition of mediocre. What a tool. I say Wanjiru runs 2:06:30 to 2:07:30, we'll see what the conditions and race tactics are like.

Whatever there are like 50 faster debuts out there.

Wanjiru 2:06 this year, 2:04 next year.

Hall 2:08 next year.

There is a poll on this very topic at japanrunningnews.blogspot.com

2:06:45

2:04. Goodbye Haile.

is this course as fast as berlin? cause if it is than haile loses his last wr

Quote from Haile Gebrselassie: "...I think this is a time to think about what the Marathon athlete is doing. The Marathon is not just an easy effort. When you run the Marathon you run against the distance. I’ve been running the last 20 years. Running 5000, 10,000. When I planned to break the record on the track, I did it after just a few times. But the Marathon took many years"

The marathon is such a different beast than the half. I think the records safe, but he should still go 2:06:xx.

"He chose Fukuoka for his debut because it is an area he knows well and it will help him to gain confidence for his future career in the marathon. "This will be the foundation. I want to run the marathon in the Olympics and so I want to take a good first step toward making that a reality." Next April`s London Marathon will be the Kenyan Olympic selection race and Wanjiru intends to compete. "This time I only plan to win in a 2:06. With the experience I gain in Fukuoka I will go much harder next time."

I think he`ll go for the Japan all-comers` record, 2:06:33.

predictorating wrote:

Whatever there are like 50 faster debuts out there.

Wanjiru 2:06 this year, 2:04 next year.

Hall 2:08 next year.

Hall has the American debut record, maybe that is why we care so much. He was more competetive in that race than anyone has been from America in a long time. He also has a sub 1:00 half marathon and in case you missed it he ran an absolutely dominating race at the US trials. Don't act like he isn't good. I'll predict 2:07:21 for this dudes debut becuase I think he will go out too hard.

Hall is fast but not a contender on the world stage yet. Maybe never. He might become the fastest American born marathoner but he'll always be relegated to finishing top 5 in major marathons. The fields are just too strong with 27 and 26min 10,000 guys in there.

Gosh, Hall runs one half-marathon in 59:43, his first marathon in 2:08:24, and the trials (out slow, hard course) 2:09:02 (1:02:45 last half) in the course of his first year out there, oh yeah, and he's only 25.

It's pretty evident that he could have run well under his London time in the Trials in Central Park with an honest pace all the way through - 2:07:XX.

You're talking about him like he's a veteran that's been out there forever and leveling off. Nice to see the lack of confidence you have in our best distance runner based upon a very limited set of data - idiot

Deck the Halls wrote:

Hall is fast but not a contender on the world stage yet. Maybe never. He might become the fastest American born marathoner but he'll always be relegated to finishing top 5 in major marathons. The fields are just too strong with 27 and 26min 10,000 guys in there.

forgot to quote the idiot

I don't see the world record going down, but yes a new Course Record is highly likely.

Fukuoka is flat but the wind makes it tricky.

I see Wanjiru going 2:06:10-2:06:30, and Atsushi Sato going about 2:06:59.

Jason

I've seen predictions like this go skeewobble so many times that I wonder why I like them. So, going by my nothing-goes-as-planned attitude I say Sammy W. finishes between 5-10th and someone who will not be mentioned as a contender wins, with a couple of the first-tier dudes close behind. Maybe a 2:07:20 at best.

But what do I know, I'm the twenty-pound guerilla in the room.

GRRunner wrote:

Quote from Haile Gebrselassie: "...I think this is a time to think about what the Marathon athlete is doing. The Marathon is not just an easy effort. When you run the Marathon you run against the distance. I’ve been running the last 20 years. Running 5000, 10,000. When I planned to break the record on the track, I did it after just a few times. But the Marathon took many years"

The marathon is such a different beast than the half. I think the records safe, but he should still go 2:06:xx.

He says that "the Marathon took many years". That's true, but it also took "just a few times". The only reason it took many years is that you can't run 6-7 marathons a year (this goes along with my theory that the marathon world record could actually be much, much lower. What would the 100m record be if athletes could only run 20 races in their career? Not where it is now, that's for sure).

Wanjiru won't break the record this time out. I wouldn't be too surprised if the marathon rears up and gives him one of its patented smack downs. I predict 2:08:15 and he'll be a little shell shocked at the end of it.

I say he bites off more than he can chew and falls apart later in the race.

haha, YO wrote:

Hall has the American debut record, maybe that is why we care so much.

Guy, the Hall stuff was trolling. I like him, and he's obviously great. Thanks for biting.

Mostly I wanted to talk about Wanjiru, who has quietly stepped up to be the heir apparent to world marathon domination...

DontFeedTheTroll wrote:

I wouldn't be too surprised if the marathon rears up and gives him one of its patented smack downs. I predict 2:08:15 and he'll be a little shell shocked at the end of it.

I don't think I agree. Isn't his training of the ultra-high mileage Japanese variety?

Although the patented smack down is well known for a reason, it most often happens to people who are moving up without being fully prepared, physically and/or mentally. But from what I understand, Wanjiru's training and mindset have been all marathon, all the time...

I will hope for 2:05:hi but bet on 2:06:lo

My guess is 2:07:30.