Database wrote:
I'm going with Iona. If you look at their spread from regionals it was 17 seconds for 1-5, that's damn good. It'll be close but I think the tight pack for Iona will give them the edge over all other teams. Again Colorado is in the same boat, but I'm pulling for Iona.
Here's the thing, as neat as that 17 2nd spread thing is, and it is a factor, it all depends on where your number one guy is coming in at. I really don't think Iona's number one guy is going to be within a stones throw of Rupp, and if Kiptoo brings his best he should be well ahead too.
Rupp and Kiptoo could have held back (more than they did)and made a 17 second gap from 1-5 at regionals too. They would have come in at 8th and 9th place, scoring 60 team points and still beating Portland (who ran out of their heads with a top 5 NCAA type performance) by 11 points. And this healthy victory comes in absolutely the most competitive region in the country.
Keep in mind that the Ducks ran without 3 guys who can be in their top 5. Diego Mercado in particular was 9th at regionals last year. He had a shoddy Pac-10's, as did his twin Danny who bounced back. If Diego is on at Nationals it will be a big swing for the Ducks.
On a side note if you look at Vin's history at Stanford, the boys always come in stronger at NCAA's then at Regionals, and that is planned. Expect the same from the Ducks.
Here is likely the guys they will be selecting from to run nationals.
Rupp:
5,000m - Outdoors - 13:30.49, Oregon Invitational, Eugene, April 20, 2007
5,000m - Indoors - 13:38.62, Husky Classic, Seattle, February 10, 2007
10,000m - Outdoors - 27:33.48 (PR), Cardinal Invitational, Stanford, Calif., April 29, 2007
World Champion Team Member - 10K
Kiptoo:
5,000 meters - 13:55.18, Stanford Invitational, March 25, 2005
10,000 meters - 29:00.52, Stanford Invitational, March 31, 2007
Ran 8:45 for 3200 in high school
Pac-10 Champ X-C - 2007
Diego:
2006-07: All-American (Cross Country). Became first Duck freshman All-American in cross country in the NCAA Championships (49th, 31:57) since 1999. Was also top freshman finisher overall in the Pac-10 (ninth, 23:39) and West Regional Championships (11th, 30:34). Also placed top 10 in the Bill Dellinger Invitational (seventh, 23:36) and Mike Hodges Invitational (fifth, 19:08). Scored for team in all five of his appearances and raced in its second position in the NCAA and regional, and ranked third in the Pac-10 and Bill Dellinger contests.
*Did not compete in outdoor and indoor track.
Kenny Klotz:
5,000m – 14:07.78 (PR), Oregon Twilight, Eugene, 5/5/07
10,000m – 29:50.26 (PR), Pac-10 Championships, Stanford, 5/12/07
Was one of busiest freshman runners for the Ducks in 2006-07, and made name at national level with U.S. and Pan American Junior titles in the 10,000m, and runner-up U.S. finishes in the 5,000m and cross country. In winter of 2007, led Americans in World Junior Cross Country Championships (56th, 27:11) in Mombasa, Kenya, a month after he finished second in the USA Junior Championships (26:07).
Diego Mercado:
Redshirted entire freshmen year.
5,000m – 14:15.46, Oregon Invitational, Eugene, 4/20/07
Scott Wall:
3,000m – Indoors – 8:02.86, Mountain Pacific Championships, Seattle, 2/24/07
5,000m – 13:57.64, Penn Relays, Philadelphia, 4/26/07
10,000m – 29:23.84, Pac-10 Championships, Stanford, 5/12/07
AJ Acosta:
1,500m - Outdoors - 3:42.40, Oregon Invitational, Eugene (4/20/07)
Mile - Indoors - 4:00.37, NCAA Last Chance Qualifier, Seattle (3/3/07)
3,000m - Indoors - 8:02.80, Mountain Pacific Championships, Seattle (2/24/07)
5,000m - Outdoors - 14:10.47, Stanford Invitational, Stanford (3/31/07)
NCAA Championships qualifier as freshman both indoors and outdoors in mile and 1,500m, respectively - UO's first to compete in both NCAA events the same year. Ran fastest indoor mile nationally among collegiate freshmen in 2007 (4:00.37) with mark that ranks third all-time for UO overall. Also a two-time U.S. junior champion in outdoor 1,500m - only the third ever to repeat the feat in the event. As a prep, was a three-time national high school champion as a senior in 2005-06 – once in cross country and twice on the track in the 1,500m and 2-mile. California state 1,600m and cross country champion, and added a pair of state runner-up honors in 3,200m and cross country.
2006-07: All-American (Mile) / NCAA Qualifier (1,500m).
Carlos Trujillo:
3,000m – Indoors - 8:16.34 (PR), Husky Collegiate, Seattle, 2/10/07
5,000m – 14:06.71 (PR), Oregon Invitational, Eugene, 4/20/07
Andrew Wheating:
Mile – Indoors – 4:04.77, Husky Collegiate, Seattle, 2/10/07
*Ran 800-1500 last spring but has been a high scorer for the Ducks this fall
It's feasable that the 7th man for the ducks could be a 14-14:10 5K runner, and their number one is a 27:33 10K runner. It's hard for me to expect Iona's 5 to come in stronger than Oregon's 5.
The only team that can do it in my mind with the help of a sloppy course is Colorado.