We all know Oregon is ranked, and most know why. That obviously does not mean they will.
Who else can win it? Why and how?
We all know Oregon is ranked, and most know why. That obviously does not mean they will.
Who else can win it? Why and how?
iona has a outside shot i think
Fair enough, but how do you figure?
Who will run for them and what can they place?
Iona---they are due
Mo K, Ngetich, Kipligat, Okuti, Ledwith, and will pick from Parks, Vizciano, Hibbs, and a few others---they have another Kenyan(Elijah Kimeu) that hasnt even raced this season, imagine if they raced him---they would be unbeatable...maybe saving him for next 2 XC seasons?
My moneys on the Gaels, time for NY to bring home a title!
umm, I don't think Matthew Kiplagat is running for them anymore. Iona was really impressive at pre-nats though and handled regionals well. ng'etich, okuti, ledwith and khadroui are capable of all placing in the top 40-50. i'm not sure who their 5th runner is. vizciano i think? he could be top 80, but i don't if that would do it for them. i think all the scores are going to be pretty close - i dont think any team is going to be head and shoulders above the rest, but whatever team does win will have to have their 5 in the top 60(taking out the individuals that would be like the top 40-50 from teams so i think the winning score will be somewhere between 80-130- no 50 point final scores this year). with a lot of teams being equally talented, that could be a hard thing to do for any one team.
So I know people say there is an east coast bias in Football. But why in XC is there an east coast bias against the team. When wa sthe last time more than 2 mens teams made it from the NE region? I'm not a stickler on the NCAA qualifing just bringing up a trend I've noticed. I ran at a NE school and I feel that NE has some of teh toughest courses in the country compared to what other regions run on. (all season, not just the regional meet)
don't know who their 5th runner is???? It is Matthew Kiplagat
Iona has a strong case, just in the way they seem to have come on recently at Nationals...Tough for me to root for a foreign-based team. My top 10:
1. Colorado (106)-they will win because I don't like Oregon.
2. Oregon (117)-one guy will have a really bad day, dooming them.
3. Iona (129)-See above.
4. Wisconsin (145)
5. Northern Arizona (169)
6. Oklahoma State (203)
7. UTEP (219)
8. Portland (241)-go Pilots!
9. Arkansas (266)
10. NC State (285)
Not a whole lot of substantiation, but that was a catharsis-based approach.
Manzano will outkick Lomong.
Oregon
Colorado
Wisconsin
Portland
Iona
UTEP
Stanford
Northern Arizona
Arkansas
Cal
kipligat is back from a brief suspension from the team, has raced Pre Nats, ran Regionals as well, and will toe the line at NCAAs'--they have a very strong top 5 and will go head to head with colorado, oregon, utep, arkansas...
I want your babies
Although I am not a fan, I will build my case on Iona winning this year. For one, it seems so certain who the best teams are right up until conference/regionals; then at Nationals there is always a surprise, but not an unexpected surprise. What no one takes into consideration is that Iona is in the NE without the intense competition, but that gives them the room to train as hard as they want without much expectation and interruption and to also rest when they need to. I believe they are one of the few teams that peak perfectly for the National meet. This year, there is no missing link in the team like in previous seasons. There are enough good guys and they are all hungry and they know no one cares or is looking for them to be at the top of the podium. Also, it seems like they finally learned how to run together. Those elements will make a difference, I guarantee you. Whoever doubts their ability is dead wrong.
I don't see how you can count Colorado out....they will show again to the nation that they are a force to be reckoned with....i see Oregon cracking under the pressure of being the spotlight all year long...I give Iona 3rd I just don't think they have what it takes to win it all...who knows maybe they will prove me wrong
For Oregon NOT to win, they would have to have 3 guys have a really bad day.
They are deep and their 4-7 guys can change slots and it won't hurt them.
Looking at the 4-7 guys, they could all run behind Iona's 5th man and the same goes for their #3 guy, I think. The same holds true for Colorado and Wisconsin and Arkansas and NAU. I do not know enough about UTEP but since they were behind CU at Regionals, they are covered by extension. Their weakness is that a bad race by anyone could spell disaster, as #6 is WAY back.My guess is that Iona and Oregon have the best shots, while if NAU all run the kind of race that they did at Pre-Nats (moving up and finishing high by the end), they have s shot but they did not run that well at 10k at Regionals, so they are much more of a question mark in my mind. If Wisconsin are really ready to run (Withrow and Eagon top 5-10, and then 3/4/5 are rested and fast, they have an outside shot, but they are probably at an "in between" year.
mufafa wrote:
For Oregon NOT to win, they would have to have 3 guys have a really bad day.
They are deep and their 4-7 guys can change slots and it won't hurt them.
Okay...I'll try a case for UTEP.
Having seen them race at the UNM meet earlier in the year, I thought at the time they were underated at #7 and a legitimate national championship contender.
They have raced inconsistently and have only five---so things will need to go well for them to have a chance.
1. The weather should not be a factor and the course at Pre-Nats suits them well.
2. UTEP ran a very solid pack time under :30 seconds at the Pre-National meet...A similiar pack time at regionals would have netted them a win over Colorado
3. Samoei was just 2 seconds behind Lomong at the Regional--so he is a definite title contender...If his teammates pack well they could put all five in the top 30...They could score under 100...Colorado won last year with 94.
4. UTEP was left out of the meet last year and has something to prove.
So, I think UTEP can win Nationals.
The Hogs and the Buffs will go 1-2. They will run smart, pack it up, and pick off alot of guys in the last 2 miles.
Someone please explain to me why UCLA did not get an at-large bid?
CU had a 25 second spread on their scoring runners.
UTEP had 1:11. This data is from regionals.
25 seconds is solid.