This region has been unusually quiet this year, so we may as well start with the usual dose of commentary based solely on rumor, speculation and, occasionally, results. Problem is, there are no results that mean anything yet.
Here's how the Coaches Association ranked the top 10 in the region (preseason). Commentary is mine, not the coaches.
1. Emory. Kile Krol (Emory's third runner at Regionals last year) seems to have disappeared, and Rob Leventhal graduated. But they have everyone back from that 5k at Duke last spring, where they had five guys at 15:27 or better (Fyffe, 15:13, Srivastava, 15:13, Winterhalter, 15:17, Roland, 15:20, and Rothbart, 15:27). And that doesn't include Bryan Forsyth, who was their number 4 at Regionals last year.
2. Rhodes. Hard to pick against them -- I might have put them in the top spot. They finished second in the region last year and beat Centre at nationals. They return five of their top 7 (losing Will Sheftall and Scott Barrows), plus pick up a bunch of freshmen, including Chris Moore (9:44, 4:26 and 15:55).
3. Centre. Third in the Region seems about right. They lose Eric Hack, but return 5 of their top seven.
4. Mary Washington. They return 5 of their top 7. The rumors that Justin Kirk was coming back for another year do not appear to be true. Frank Devar and the other returners should be strong.
5. Washington and Lee. They return everyone and have a huge freshman class. They should be strong one through three, and should be much stronger 1 though 5 than last year. Welsh is very fit.
6. Trinity. They lose their 1, 5 and 6, and will have a tough time finishing 6th again.
7. McMurry. Last year's surprise team. They lose their 4, 5 and 6, but add freshman Brendan Bounds (1:55, 4:28, 16:02).
8. Bridgewater. They return national qualifier Brandon Spalding, as well as Nathan Rittenhouse (15:08 at Duke). Plus they have Mawut Deng who finished 21st in the Region last year. Familiar ODAC theme, they need 4 and 5 help.
9. CNU. Hard to peg this team just yet, but they return a solid pack. Check back after a couple of real meets.
10. Lynchburg. These guys should do much better than 10th. Don't know what the coaches association was thinking, Ricky Flynn (14:40) appears to be back, D1 transfer rumors notwithstanding. He should win the region, if healthy. Returning from a short sabbatical is Jeremy Falke. Add Pat Jacobs and their top 3 can run with anyone. They need more help from their 4 and 5 runners. W & L, Lynchburg and Bridgewater appear to be almost dead even at this point.
Other teams not ranked by the coaches:
Roanoke. Lots and lots of freshmen, some of whom are good. They should be very good in a year or two, assuming they stick around.
Southwestern. They lose Otto and Contreras and have no chance this year.
Sewanee. Want to see them run some real meets. Looks like they ran their home meet as a tempo -- you never know who's training hard on the mountain. Joe Brew's return helps.