Hi AC
Thank you for your comments. They are certainly well thought out and worthy of discussion, so just to respond:
1) You can of course never be CERTAIN about anything, but as I've said, it's highly suggestive that there is something different about the energetics of running. I'll elaborate on this a little more in response to your third question, but the point is that the ability to speed up defies normal physiological theory. And this suggests that there is an advantage. The whole argument revolves around two theories - one is that running on Cheetahs costs more energy, the other is that it is energy-saving. And the ability to speed up is without doubt in favour of energy saving. It's not my place to say this and discuss it, but I can assure that he does NOT have to slow down around the bend - in fact, it's the fastest part of his race. I realise that this is hollow without proof, but I assure you it's true. I hope to be able to publish or explain this on that Science of Sport website soon, but until then, I must just stress that he's not only accelerating in the straight. It's that he never slows down once he reaches his top speed.
2) I am a big believer in the phrase "physiologically imposslbe", without of course wishing to be too dogmatic or narrow-minded about it!!! In fact, I think that athletics debates revolve around these truths. At the very least, they are stimulating, and I'd concede that science has been wrong in the past. But I'm not talking about barriers to overall performance, I'm talking about the distribution of effort and energy withing a bout.
Because science reveals what the body is capable of and that's why we have all these research papers on what the ultimate limit to human performance will be. So while I realise that this is a controversial statement, I honestly do believe (with data to support this), that it's not possible to speed up at the end of a fast 400m race. Now, your third question is good, and I should have clarified this, and will do so below. But we're not talking about barriers here - the 60 minute half was always going to happen, so was the 4-minute mile. Because they are physiologically possible. But pacing strategy, that's different. And it's just not possible to speed up at the end of a decent 400m race - I'll get to this in a moment. But by analysing the world records, the stats, and the history of the event, you start to see a pattern emerge, but more on this below.
3) When you look at every single world record for the 100m, 200m, 400m, 400 m Hurdles, and the 800m, the only consistent finding is that the second half is slower than the first. Only twice in history has the second lap of the 800m event been run faster than the first. There are data to prove this. In fact, my PhD thesis was on the physiology of fatigue and performance, and I used all the world records to prove a point that for short duration exercise, lasting less than 2 minutes, the best pacing strategy was one where you slow down in the second half of the race.
So to answer your question, there is an abundance of data - cycling studies, running studies, rowing studies - all show that the best performances come from a faster first half. For example, here's a radical stat - the fastest second lap in the history of the 800m event was run in 1972, 35 years ago. Since then, the world record has come down by 3.2 seconds without improving the second lap - it all comes from the first lap. Now I realise that this is a relatively unexplained argument, I don't have the space to go into it fully, but I am 100% sure that it is not possible to run the second lap of a "decent" 800m race faster than about 51 seconds.
next question, what is decent? That's a good one, and difficult to explain. Perhaps the best is to say that of course, if Jeremy Wariner loped out and ran the first 200m of a 400 in 25 seconds, he could probably blast a 21.5 and finish in 46.5. But that would not be decent - it's 5% slower than his best. So in my research, I found that as long as the athlete is running within about 3 to 5% of their best, they have to slow down. If they don't, it's not an optimal performance. So in the case of the 400m event, if the athlete is able to speed up in the second half, they are either underperforming relative to their best, or they are gaining some sort of unnatural advantage, which I believe is the case here. Again, it's not proven, but it's consistent with the theoretical models proposed BEFORE the data were collected. And so having come up with two options, the data very clearly push the argument towards the advantage side.
I'm sorry if I haven't addressed the issues clearly. Your questions are very thought-provoking and I think what I would like to do is a full and comprehensive article on my blog to explain it better. But the point for the argument is that if the runner is doing anything like a reasonable time (within about 3% of their best), they just will not be able to speed up at the end. Until you reach the 1500m races and upwards, because here, optimal pacing actually should allow you to run even pace.
Thanks for the questions, i hope it's kind of clearer!
Ross