I got Dave Monti's Race Results Weekly piece on the expected weather for the Boston marathon. Dave does a great job with his service and its the one thing we pay to put up on the site. But one of my big pet peeves was my coach telling me what the weather was going to be at at my races many days in advance. Most of the time runners spend too much time worrying about the weather.
#1) I don't have a lot of belief in long rang forecasts and #2) The weather is what the weather is. The goal is to race well no matter what so I don't need to worry about it very far in advance. All I needed to do is be prepared in terms of what I pack.
Anyway, so I'm reading Dave's article and he's making it sound like the weather will be unseasonably cool and rainy in Boston. (the last few months and this week for sure are well below avg on the east coast) It says, is "is likely to be cold and possibly accompanied by rain showers".
But then I read the article. It says the high will be 50 and the low 38. The average high on race day (April 16th) is 56 in Boston and the avg low 41. So the high will be 6 degrees below normal nad the low 3 below normal. (and i'm even helping Dave out here. He talks about the average April high which is 53 instead of the April 16th high which is 56) This seems perfectly normal to me and not out of the norm for Boston in April.
It says there will be a 30% chance of rain. Then I looked and on average it rains 11 days a month in Boston in April. Thus roughly on 30% of the days in April it rains.
http://www.met.utah.edu/jhorel/html/wx/climate/daysrain.html
It seems to me the article could just as well be written "the forecast for Boston is calling for a normal mid April day".
The article is below. I still enjoyed it as it told me it was 86 in 2004 at Boston. I can't believe it was that hot. That is sizzling in Boston in April. But if its 62 on Boston (6 degrees above normal) I hope we don't say it was hot, like if its 6 degrees below normal we don't say it was cold. 50 isn't cold. Now of course if it is 50 and raining and windy then it may be cold. Article below.
BOSTON MARATHON LIKELY TO BE COLD WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
By David Monti
(c) 2007 Race Results Weekly, all rights reserved
April 10, 2007
Early forecasts indicate that the 111th Boston Marathon, set for Monday, April 16, is likely to be cold and possibly accompanied by rain showers.
According to the website Weather.com, the low temperature for the day will be 38°F (3°C) and the high will be 50°F (10°C). There is also a 30% chance of rain. Because the race now starts earlier in the day (9:35 a.m. for the elite women, 10:00 a.m. for the elite men and the first wave of the mass race, and 10:30 a.m. for the second wave of the mass race), athletes are likely to be running in temperatures well below the predicted high for the day. The race formerly began at noon, but changed to a morning start this year.
In addition, the forecast is calling for rain the night before the race which could slicken the roads from the start in Hopkinton to the finish in Boston's Back Bay neighborhood.
Two of the last three editions of the Boston Marathon were held in unusually warm conditions. In 2004, the race was held in record heat, with the mercury hitting 86°F (30°C), according to the website WeatherUnderground.com, which tracks historical weather data. The 2005 edition was also warm, with a high temperature of 66°F (18°C). Last year, the weather was more typical for New England in mid-April with temperatures ranging from a morning low of 43°F (6°C) and an afternoon high of 53°F (12°C).
Because the Boston race is held on a point-to-point course which runs from west to east towards the Atlantic Ocean, the wind is often an important factor affecting the race. The winds are predicted to be from the east at 15 MPH (24 KPH), which would be against the runners. In 1994, the runners were helped by a strong westerly wind which allowed the first seven men to break the 2:09 barrier, including winner Coamas Ndeti whose 2:07:15 stood as the course record until last year.
Monday's Boston Marathon kicks off the second year of the first World Marathon Majors series. Defending men's champion and course record holder, Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot of Kenya, and last year's runner-up, Jelena Prokopcuka of Latvia, are atop the men's and women's leader boards with 50 and 40 points, respectively. They will both be competing in Boston. The series concludes at the ING New York City Marathon on Nov. 4, where the top male and female point scorers will receive $500,000 each, the largest single guaranteed cash prize in all of athletics.