RITZ officially in 10k at Hengelo

weather looks good so far near 50 degrees light rain, 27:20 would be exciting

I'm asuming those are 10,000 meter PRs? So Lebid has only run 28:12? He's slower than WEJO?! Not that WEJO is slow, but certainly Lebid is more decorated. Is that a misprint or has he just not run a decent 10,000 on a track?

Hey Flagpole,

You are never shy about predicting something great for Ritzcracka......so what's it going it be this time Willy? American Record???? Let's hear it FW.

Let us all hope that he returns from the Cardinal 10k in better shape than Webb or even Fam. Cardinal is traditionally the springboard to poor performances. I hope that this year is different.

No American record for Ritz this time, but I have less to go on with regard to predicting a time. Last time he had recently run a decent 5,000 to get the rust off, so I predicted a time between 27:18-27:35 for him in that 10,000 with Webb, and while he hit the range I suggested, I was surprised a bit that it was on the slower end of that, and of course very surprised that Webb was able to run that well for that distance.

This race is a bit different for Ritz in other ways too. In that last race, Ritz only had one peer (Webb); Fam ran a great race, and no disrespect intended, but I wouldn't yet call him a peer with Ritz at 10,000; he gets close to Ritz again in a 10,000 or continues to improve and then he will be, but not yet. In this upcoming race, there are lots who are faster or about as fast. So far, Ritz has done better in races where he was the clear favorite, and not as well in races where he wasn't (although he did have that Belfast win last year).

I have lots less to go on this time, but even I would be surprised if he broke the American Record this time. I'll say best-case scenario is 27:22, but I have a feeling he will run slower than he did against Webb.

BUT, if he does bust a really good time or miracles upon miracles, breaks the AR this time, I will get to say I TOLD YOU SO, because I have predicted he will eventually do that. I just don't think it will be this time. Maybe he will surprise. I doubt it though.

Setting aside the Olympics Trials and the Olympics, where Ritz was simply trying to finish, he has run only run the 10K twice on the track, both at the Cardinal Invitational--first running 27:38 and then 27:35. The first time he was in great shape and was able to run behind the pace of others; the second time he had to take time off because he was ill, followed by a month of easy training, followed by five weeks of solid or hard training, and he and Webb had to set the pace the last 6K of the race. Since the 27:35, he has added four more hard weeks of training, he won't have to set the pace, and he's running at a meet that even more than the Cardinal Invitational has produced fast times at 10K. If the pace at Hengelo is 13:30, he's in trouble whether he goes with it or lays off and has to set his own pace. If, however, the pace is high 13:30s, I think he has a chance to run 27:20. I can't see him running an American record, though. Nevertheless, if (always a big thing!) he can run low 27:20s, and if he continues to train hard through September (he is getting married), and if he doesn't get hurt, I can see him getting the record in Berlin. And this would be huge for American distance running heading into a World Championship year.

Abdi will get the American record running 27:04, Ritz will push with the leaders and run out of gas in the last couple of laps (he ran too many quality 10K's too close together) and finish in 27:48.

Ritz will run 27:19, just breaking the native-born American record set by Mark Nenow in the early 80s.

Seriously though Flagpole, predicting that Ritz will eventually break the American record isn't BOLD. Rojo and many others projected that right here on this site many moons ago, as did the rest of us. The guy did run a 13:27 5k as a true freshman after all. He will go sub 27:30 in Hengelo if the weather is good; 27:22 is definitely within reach.

Agreed with the poster above who talked about how the pace of the race will drastically effect Ritz's chances. Hopefully there will be one race up front with Bekele at 26 low pace, and then another group running 65/66's and then Ritz can maybe get close to the AR. If he comes through 5k in around 13.40/45 I see him running 27.18.

I think Ritz will run 27:25 or so.

Great White Hope wrote:

Seriously though Flagpole, predicting that Ritz will eventually break the American record isn't BOLD. Rojo and many others projected that right here on this site many moons ago, as did the rest of us. The guy did run a 13:27 5k as a true freshman after all. He will go sub 27:30 in Hengelo if the weather is good; 27:22 is definitely within reach.

While I don't think it is a BOLD prediction, I beg to differ that "the rest of us" here also predicted Ritz would break the AR in the 10,000. I've gotten tons of crap for stating that. Many here say he doesn't have the wheels, that to predict such a thing disrespects Meb, etc. Rojo did predict that early on, yes, but most here still don't believe he will eventually get that record -- at least the majority of people who have posted an opinion on that don't believe he will.

I agree with what you're saying about his talent. I also agree that 27:22 could happen. I give that a best-case time this time.

Sihine is also included!

Holy smoke Flagploe, go stick that fat head of yours in a meat grinder already

I think that there will be "Multiple" paces in the race, not just one (e.g., sub-27, 27:20).

He will come on top with the W I will say that much about this race and if anybody cares about my Ritz prediction(probably not, since everyone seems to agree)27:26-27:33

On a side note Ritz will finish anywhere from 7th. to 10th. place for a more interesting bold prediction.

Ritz 27:24

Abdi 27:04

I think if that if the pace goes out too slow or if Ritz gets stuck running with other runners at too slow a pace, it is also a possibility that some of the Africans could blitz the second 5k faster than Ritz would be able to keep up with, or even the last 3- or 2k for that matter. So I would say that a slower race(going out in ~13:55) would not favor Ritz' chances of placing well or running fast(the latter is more obvious).

In response to Flagpole Willy's first post on this thread, I think that Famiglietti is or could very well be a fellow competitor against Ritz. Fam closed the last lap in 59 seconds and said in interviews that he still had a lot left, so if Fam worked on running the 10k, I wouldn't rule him out as being a potential AR holder at the distance either.