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darkness
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/29/2006 6:27PM - in reply to xc04 Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
xc04 wrote:

I know. I did not cite bekele as an example.
But to go back to 1980 3k record was 7.32 and 5k recrod was 13.06(7.51 at 3k)- difference of 19 seconds.

Todays 3k world record is 7.20 and 5k world record is 12.37 (7.33 at 3k) - difference of 13 seconds.

At the elite level people are getting so much stronger that they are able to come through far closer to their 3k max than was thought possible just 25 years ago.

I'm sure its the same with the 10k. ie todays WR is 5k WR x 2 + 60 secs. 25 years ago was 5k WR x 2 + 80 secs. Even taking into account percentages of WR it is still decreasing


Actually this is wrong. Double 12:37 and add 60 and you get 26:14, way ahead of the 10k WR, run by the same person in the same year.

Double Rono's 13:08.4 and add 60 and you get 27:17. 5 seonds ahead of the 27:22 that he ran, but no different than the result for Bekele. You can't use 13:00.42 and 27:22 because they were 4 years apart. Use 13:00.42 from '82 and 27:13.81 from '84 ... that is a MUCH more apt comparison.

That formula doesn't hold up across the board, and it should be evident why. You are adding a fixed amount (60 seconds) to doubled times that are tremendously far apart. It wouldn't work to compare 13:54 from the Zatopek era (30 years before 13:00-flat and Moorcroft's 13:00.42 either.

2 x 10k time + 60 secs is just a rough predictor, that's all it is.
pp
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/29/2006 8:17PM - in reply to darkness Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I have heard that Mike aish is pacing the first 5km but only in 14mins. Doesn't sound like they are going to be running sub 27mins30. Should set up an interesting race though for a quicker second half of the race.
Flagpole Willy
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/29/2006 8:49PM - in reply to quarters Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
quarters wrote:

I def agree that a confident healthy Ritz is a major threat BUT you are using Ritzs ability to get far ahead of his competition in HS to gauge how far he will be ahead of his competition at the elite level. It doesn't work that way.

You almost sound like you never ran competitevly ever. In high school people have different bodies. Some bodies are more mature and some bodies are less mature. Hall ran close to a four minute mile in high school. He is more mature now and his body is getting more and more used to running fast.


Ritz is not going to be able to drop Hall no matter what pace he runs. He is just not that talented to stick it to hall like he could do in high school. Do I think it is a toss up between the two for who will be better in the long run? YES but ritz will never kill the competition like he did in high school.

Have you ever watched the videotape after the NCAA XC championships when Ritz barely beat Hall. Hall stated how he was running a team race and could have broke early and how he raced for the team. He could have ran away from Ritz that day and never given him a chance, but he ran a team race. Ritz went out slow that day and moved up. Afterwards Ritz states " THIS IS NOT HIGH SCHOOL ANYMORE. IT'S A WHOLE DIFFERENT BALLGAME. I JUST CAN'T RUN AWAY FROM THESE GUYS ANYMORE."

Flagpole, cut the crap about Ritz being SOSOSO much more talented than the rest of the guys. Hall and Dobson ccan go under 1310 this year!

You say Ritz doesn't have Hall or Dobson on his mind. We will see.


1) Who said I've come to this conclusion in looking at his high school accomplishments? Those were great, yes, but he's still done way better to date than Hall, and he's not been as healthy as Hall. Hall currently has a faster 5,000. Other than that, Ritz wins hands down as far as accomplishments go.

2) Your argument about physical maturity in high school makes no sense. Ritz looked like a 12 year old as a senior.

3) Most assuredly I ran competitively -- at least in the realms I competed in -- high school, Div. III college, local bad ass in the Bay Area in the early 90s...

4) Ritz can drop Hall any time he wants when he's healthy.

5) Ritz barely beat Hall in that CC race because he was coming off injury. Glad to know that Hall "could have" won the race if he weren't running for the team -- I call BS on that. WOULDA COULDA SHOULDA...DIDN'T! Oh yeah, and COULDN'T either.

6) The fact that Ritz verbally gives other runners some respect now and then means nothing. He SHOULD do that, regardless of how he feels, because he doesn't want to seem an ass, and he doesn't want people gunning for him any more than they already are. Besides, perhaps Ritz can't see he is more talented than Hall, Dobson, etc., but I can, and that's all that matters when I give MY opinion.

7) I actually don't think Hall and Dobson can or will go under 13:10 this year. In fact, if they do in this calendar year, I will not post until 2007.
irun
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/29/2006 9:55PM - in reply to Flagpole Willy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
You heard it here:



Flagpole Willy wrote:

7) I actually don't think Hall and Dobson can or will go under 13:10 this year. In fact, if they do in this calendar year, I will not post until 2007.
Zat0pek
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/29/2006 10:42PM - in reply to pp Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
pp wrote:

I have heard that Mike aish is pacing the first 5km but only in 14mins. Doesn't sound like they are going to be running sub 27mins30. Should set up an interesting race though for a quicker second half of the race.


I think this makes sense, especially for Webb. A controlled first half and Katie-bar-the-door in the last 5,000 with everyone in the race.
trhamon
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 1:49AM - in reply to Zat0pek Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I think Ritz and Webb have the opportunity to have great careers if they can stay healthy. But Webb is just making his first stab at this distance (other than XC), and Ritz has been injured. Meanwhile, there are some serious contenders in the field, including Alistair Cragg and Ryan Hall. I haven't paid attention to Cragg much the past few months, but Hall has been extremely consistent and steadily improving over the past year. Has he run a 10,000 on the track before? I find it odd that he's generally relegated to afterthought status here after the year he's had.
lalalalananananna
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 5:58AM - in reply to Zat0pek Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Zat0pek wrote:

[quote]pp wrote:

I have heard that Mike aish is pacing the first 5km but only in 14mins. Doesn't sound like they are going to be running sub 27mins30. Should set up an interesting race though for a quicker second half of the race.


I think this makes sense, especially for Webb. A controlled first half and Katie-bar-the-door in the last 5,000 with everyone in the race.[/quote]

I really doubt that cause i read that swiss man Belz is going for the national record(27:40s) and why should Ritz go out so slow , in a slow race he will not set a PR and has little chance against Webb and Cragg.
I heard that Bolota Asmerom is going to pace the first 5k in 13:45.
Get Real
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 6:40AM - in reply to xc04 Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
This shows how far from reality many letsrun-posters are. Check the 1500m All-Time list. There have been 29 sub-3:29 performances EVER in HISTORY. So NO ONE can regularly run 3:27/3:28 in GP meets let alone run "comfortably" under 3:30. Ok, the only person who perhaps has the right to say that he ran "regularly" 3:27/3:28 is El G. But even he has 14 performances sub 3:29 in 1997-2005, that is under two sub 3:29 runs per year on average. How "regular" is that?
Oh, and only 6 (yeah, that's six) runners have broken 3:29.
staples
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 11:45AM - in reply to Get Real Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Too bad we can't find somewhere online or someone there in person to give us some live updates. This is going to be badass.
xcman1500
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 11:56AM - in reply to Flagpole Willy Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
You say Ritz doesn't have Hall or Dobson on his mind. We will see.[/quote]

1) Who said I've come to this conclusion in looking at his high school accomplishments? Those were great, yes, but he's still done way better to date than Hall, and he's not been as healthy as Hall. Hall currently has a faster 5,000. Other than that, Ritz wins hands down as far as accomplishments go.

4) Ritz can drop Hall any time he wants when he's healthy.

5) Ritz barely beat Hall in that CC race because he was coming off injury. Glad to know that Hall "could have" won the race if he weren't running for the team -- I call BS on that. WOULDA COULDA SHOULDA...DIDN'T! Oh yeah, and COULDN'T either.

Great points, anyone who doesn't think that ritz is one of the most talanted runners of our generation (from the u.s.) is full of bull. he is a great runner and anyone who doesn't think he is should go race him and get your inconsequential asses kicked.
ttc
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 12:41PM - in reply to xcman1500 Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
xcman1500 wrote:
5) Ritz barely beat Hall in that CC race because he was coming off injury. Glad to know that Hall "could have" won the race if he weren't running for the team -- I call BS on that.

Actually, I bet Hall would've won if he wasn't concerned about the team race. Even though he got outkicked, he seemed very comfortable and the fittest guy in the race, and likely would've paced it hard pretty early. I'm sure Ritz would've responded, but it may've been too much for his subpar fitness.
Scoop Jackson
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 12:52PM - in reply to irun Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I will never have pulled for two runners to run a particular time or faster than I will for Hall and Dobson to break 13:10 this year. Please, shut flaghole up!

irun wrote:

You heard it here:



[quote]Flagpole Willy wrote:

7) I actually don't think Hall and Dobson can or will go under 13:10 this year. In fact, if they do in this calendar year, I will not post until 2007.
[/quote]
quarters
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 1:00PM - in reply to Scoop Jackson Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
not high school anymore

When is the last time Ritz has dropped anybody??

everyone gets these ideas that ritz is so much more talented.

hall will show that ritz is nothing after tonight.

mark my words.

hall webb and craig beat ritz tonight.

heard it here first.
ttc
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 1:13PM - in reply to quarters Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
quarters wrote:
hall webb and craig beat ritz tonight.

I assume you're mistaken about Hall, as I didn't see his name on the heat sheet.

http://www.cstv.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/stan/sports/c-track/auto_pdf/06-pjc-heat-sheets
quarters
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 1:19PM - in reply to ttc Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
oh i thought people were saying he joined the race. guess not. too bad.

and i don't want to look like the idiot dissing Ritz. i love the dude. he's my grad hs year. i love those guys they made running exciting. but ritz has to get BACK on top. don't just give him the top spot for what he did in HS. i want to see ritz perform to what all you say he can and then crown him. not the other way around.
Theodore
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 1:32PM - in reply to quarters Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
quarters wrote:

oh i thought people were saying he joined the race. guess not. too bad.

and i don't want to look like the idiot dissing Ritz. i love the dude. he's my grad hs year. i love those guys they made running exciting. but ritz has to get BACK on top. don't just give him the top spot for what he did in HS. i want to see ritz perform to what all you say he can and then crown him. not the other way around.


Ritz has done some stuff after HS. In fact, I think you could argue that he's done more than Hall post-HS up until this point.
OTR
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 1:33PM - in reply to quarters Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
At least one of these guys likes Cragg to upset Ritz.

http://twobrotherstalkingtrack.blogspot.com
blue
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 3:20PM - in reply to OTR Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Hall already showed Ritz he was nothing after USA cross.
tanner
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 3:27PM - in reply to blue Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
blue wrote:

Hall already showed Ritz he was nothing after USA cross.
yah and visa versa about going to the olympics...wich is much better than world xc popularity and fame wise.
blue
RE: WEBB VS RITZ AT STANFORD 10k SUNDAY 4/30/2006 3:29PM - in reply to tanner Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
yeah, only to DNF.

Nice one, there. Try again.
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