Dow to close 2011 at 13,000 or above

Blind Lemon Chicken wrote:

So Flagpole wasn't off by too much. Where do we go from here, FP?

Kind of early in the year for me to decide for sure, but I THINK the market slowly moves up from here while unemployment continues to slow drop until November. A big decline in the markets would surprise me more in 2012 than a big gain.

Gallup today came out with news that according to their info, the unemployment rate has jumped back up to 9%. I don't see that being what the government states for February, but we'll see.

Still lots of unknowns. Greece continues to weigh on the minds of investors (unwarranted I think), and tensions between Iran and Israel could cause a sharp downturn if something happens. The US economy though is looking strong...manufacturing continues to kill it, even to the point that many manufacturers want to start hiring but there are is a lack of skilled laborers out there...they will have to hire and train. We should not expect continued market growth that doesn't have a pull back or two though.

Steve Martin wrote:

The DOW is not what people look at when they go to vote. They look at their current situation and their friends' and neighbors'. If unemployment does not improve dramatically, that will be

only 4 years

only 4 years

only 4 years

only 4 years

I think your theory has some flaws. Amazing then, for example, that FDR was elected 4 times through the depths of the Great Depression.

Steve Martin wrote:

If unemployment does not improve dramatically, that will be

only 4 years

only 4 years

only 4 years

only 4 years

I hate to tell you this (really I do, because I don't like to see people get disappointed), but for your own good, you should just accept now that Obama is going to win a second term; I accepted ahead of time that Bush would win a second term. News out just today that the GOP is so desperate they are looking for another candidate to enter the race. Polls show that Obama would beat either Santorum or Romney if the race were to be held today; by November it will be an even bigger margin.

agip wrote:

yahoo finance says the day's highest value of the Dow was > 13,000.

So there it is - almost 2 months late, but that's worth a turducken dinner in my menu of life.

The scary part is that Flagpole is bullish, Peeps is bullish, Sagarin is well not momentarily bearish, I am bullish...Blowing rock master - I have no idea.

This is probably a bad setup.

Agip, as you know, I don't think we're seeing a vibrant, organic recovery, but I've said that I'm not going to fight the Fed and global money printing, as well as acknowledging that credit spreads had improved a couple months ago, which was what I wanted to see to justify a bullish stance from a macro perspective. I respect most of the technical analysts on here, even as I think it is a 50/50 venture that works until it doesn't, except for coach Disingenuous, who doesn't even follow his system because of "politics" (as if politics aren't always going on) and would've also prematurely entered the gold trade.

It is certainly possible that Dow 13,000 will attract a mass exodus of retail money off the sidelines, which I have no doubt the smart money will be selling, but there's no telling when it ends. Personally, I have seen no reason to be in US-denominated assets other than select bond funds, which have outperformed equities. That's where most of my long-term money has been during this deflationary overhang, but diversification has begged investment into emerging markets, commodity currencies, and other select assets. The US is temporarily the worst house in the best neighborhood. Lately, all I've "traded" is volatility. I do see a pullback coming, and it's entirely possible that the Fed implements domestic QE3 to hyperinflate assets yet again, having learned nothing from the two prior bubbles.

For your reading and listening pleasure:

... best house in the worst neighborhood.

Blind Lemon Chicken wrote:

So Flagpole wasn't off by too much. Where do we go from here, FP?

He predicted the Dow would close 2011 at 13,000 or above, up from the 11,200 it was when he made the prediction.

It closed the year at 12217.56

In what world is your prediction being off by over 43% considered "not too much"

give me a break people.

you gotta be kidding me wrote:

He predicted the Dow would close 2011 at 13,000 or above, up from the 11,200 it was when he made the prediction.

It closed the year at 12217.56

In what world is your prediction being off by over 43% considered "not too much"

give me a break people.

I was referring to his timing....he was 48 days too early on his call.

By the way, the difference between where it ended 2011 and 13,000 is more like 6%.

Blind Lemon Chicken wrote:

I was referring to his timing....he was 48 days too early on his call.

By the way, the difference between where it ended 2011 and 13,000 is more like 6%.

Bull. Quit defending this guy. Had it stayed at 11,200 would you ave said "Oh well, he was only 14% off, not too bad."

Predicting a rise of 1800 points with an actual rise of 1017 is off by 43.5%

flagpowned

you gotta be kidding me wrote:

Bull. Quit defending this guy. Had it stayed at 11,200 would you ave said "Oh well, he was only 14% off, not too bad."

Predicting a rise of 1800 points with an actual rise of 1017 is off by 43.5%

Look dude, there is apparently a sizable fraction of the letsrun community that, for financial advice, looks to someone who does not understand how to calculate a rate of return, believes in the mystical advantage of dollar cost averaging, repeatedly makes predictions that do not come true, is unable to admit his errors, and has been caught in a bald faced lie about his own investment returns. Oh yeah, he also believes in Bigfoot.

Just be happy you aren't a member of that sizable fraction.

Flagpole wrote:

I hate to tell you this (really I do, because I don't like to see people get disappointed), but for your own good, you should just accept now that Obama is going to win a second term; I accepted ahead of time that Bush would win a second term. News out just today that the GOP is so desperate they are looking for another candidate to enter the race. Polls show that Obama would beat either Santorum or Romney if the race were to be held today; by November it will be an even bigger margin.

If the trend in rising gasoline prices continues, I wouldn't be so sure. People don't vote on the Dow, and maybe not so much on unemployment, but if gas hits and stays at $5 without Obama showing any interest at all in more domestic drilling and keeps on spouting that solar energy crap, then he is setting himself up to be a one-term prez.

No need to argue whether drilling would even solve the problem. We live in an "American Idol" society, and we can't expect voters to understand that infrastructure for refineries, pipelines, and more drilling would take 10 years. We want it all, and we want it now. If Obama tells people to check the air-pressure in their tires again this time around, I think it's going to cost him.

It would be 10 years off, but during those 10 years all that infrastructure would have to get built. There's a lot of economy going on in that. A lot of economy.

The U.S. is exporting 3 million barrels/day of petroleum products. More drilling just means more to export.

you gotta be kidding me wrote:

Bull. Quit defending this guy. Had it stayed at 11,200 would you ave said "Oh well, he was only 14% off, not too bad."

Predicting a rise of 1800 points with an actual rise of 1017 is off by 43.5%

I was not defending him. I merely pointed out that he was reasonably close to calling the return to 13k. Despite what you want to believe, I was talking about his timing.

Why do you feel threatened by this?

Here is the unfortunate truth wrote:

Look dude, there is apparently a sizable fraction of the letsrun community that, for financial advice, looks to someone who does not understand how to calculate a rate of return, believes in the mystical advantage of dollar cost averaging, repeatedly makes predictions that do not come true, is unable to admit his errors, and has been caught in a bald faced lie about his own investment returns. Oh yeah, he also believes in Bigfoot.

1) Can I calculate a return? YES.

2) Believes in dollar cost averaging? Not necessarily. I invest that way because it limits RISK, not that it potentially gives you better returns.

3) Unable to admit errors? I do that all the time here. Just for starters, the last two years I made end-of-year calls on where the Dow would be and I missed it both times and fully admitted I had it wrong, EVEN when some last year wanted to say I was right just because I was off by only 16 trading days...I maintained that I was wrong.

4) Been caught in a bald faced lie about my own investment returns? Um...nope. Sorry brother...just because you think I couldn't have gained what I did doesn't mean I didn't.

5) Believes in Bigfoot? The short answer to that is NO. Am I open-minded enough to consider it's a possibility when scientists discover new even large animals all the time and as early as the early 1900s the Giant Panda was thought to be a myth? Yep. I will NOT believe it though until I see it.

Try again brother.

We'd have to have $5 gas that stayed there in places like the midwest for that to be even close to the case - $5 gas in California though? Nah. I can't discount the stupidity of some voters, and if they think that gas prices would soon go down with Romney or Santorum at the helm, then they've got another thing coming.

Last 8 Presidential election years, the stock market has gone up. Duhh.

Hey, thanks for the laughs.

Just went above 13,000 (13,002.88).