Iphone 5 is beginning of end of apple dominance

Apple stock wrote:

Bump this thread.

Im still wondering how much money APPL is down at the moment.

APPL? Where are you? Why wont you tell us how much you have lost?

Considering I bought a majority of my shares at ~$150, I'm still up ~$10,000 on all the AAPL stock I'm holding. Adding in the additional $6,000 in profit from the stock I sold earlier this year (I sold it to pay for a major life event, not because of any concern about long term growth potential), I'm up over $16,000 total in AAPL.

Had I sold it when you said, I would have more. I don't play the "timing the market" game though. My long term investment strategy is far less risky, and has worked out pretty well.

I'll ask YOU again - how much money did you make off of your "short" call? How does it compare to my +$16,000?

I will bump this thread in January after the holiday quarter results. They will be insane.

AppleGuy wrote:

I will bump this thread in January after the holiday quarter results. They will be insane.

I'm looking forward to that - it should be astronomical. A lot of reasons to be optimistic.

- iPhone 5 in full swing with supply issues fixed

- iPad update - 4th gen

- iPad mini release

- iMac update

- typical spike due to holiday sales

- additional stock recovery due to fiscal cliff resolution and certainty about capital gains and dividend taxes

That's why I bought additional shares recently to take advantage of this downturn before the monster quarter.

My short put from before expired worthless so i just collected the premium. I was kicking myself when the stock made a quick recovery (instead of actually buying the stock) but now i'm going to get another chance. I'm short a 520 put that expires this friday. Every time the stock falls below 525, buyers step in. Of course if it breaks that 520-525 level it could fall further. Willing to take that chance.

Mrr82 wrote:

One more thing, Apple is creating a gateway into business computers with their Iphones/Ipads. PC makers should be very worried. In the past hardly any companies used Macs, and it's still being very slow to change, but watch for it to excellerate as more and more businesses start using Iphones and now Ipads and the younger demographic that is all world Apple starts to get older. There's a HUGE untapped market there still.

FWIW, my company just purchased 17 macbooks for our employees. We are not a design firm or anything. We just got feedback that everyone felt more comfortable working on a mac.

Bump.

I'd like to hear the thread response to the latest news regarding the share price:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/apple-shares-drop-after-report-about-cuts-in-part-orders.html

As of today, Market Caps for the three largest U.S. companies.

Apple Inc, AAPL, 470B

Exxon Mobil Corp., XOM, 410B

Google Inc, GOOG, 240B

Sprintgeezer wrote:

I'd like to hear the thread response to the latest news regarding the share price:

The latest news is that Apple cut the orders for displays in half.

My 2ct:

1. Could be mistaken for the iPod Touch orders, that one does not sell well, haven't seen anyone with it yet.

2. Holiday quarter numbers will be out next week. I still expect everyone to be blown away then.

3. AT&T said this quarter is a record quarter for them for Apple devices, so something doesn't add up here.

4. Apple may have missed the boat on the "phablets" (tablet sized phones). More and more people are buying 5 to 6 inch phones and this trend is here to stay. I expect them to jump on it, too.

Sprintgeezer wrote:

I'd like to hear the thread response to the latest news regarding the share price:

AppleGuy wrote:

The latest news is that Apple cut the orders for displays in half.

My 2ct:

1. Could be mistaken for the iPod Touch orders, that one does not sell well, haven't seen anyone with it yet.

2. Holiday quarter numbers will be out next week. I still expect everyone to be blown away then.

3. AT&T said this quarter is a record quarter for them for Apple devices, so something doesn't add up here.

4. Apple may have missed the boat on the "phablets" (tablet sized phones). More and more people are buying 5 to 6 inch phones and this trend is here to stay. I expect them to jump on it, too.

There's also the thought that the decrease in orders may be a sign of improved manufacturing yields. There were issues with meeting demand for the first several months of availability due to poor manufacturing yields.

At this point, it's all rumor and conjecture. January 23rd is the next earnings report, and it should be spectacular. How spectacular is the real question. Only time will tell.

Sprintgeezer wrote:

Bump.

I'd like to hear the thread response to the latest news regarding the share price:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-14/apple-shares-drop-after-report-about-cuts-in-part-orders.html

I read a recent news report that Apple just passed 50% marketshare of the US smartphone market for the first time. I suspect that the iPhone 4 and 4S is cannibalizing sales of the higher-end phone.

AAPL needs to have a great quarter and they need to get a China Mobile deal ASAP. China is just a huge market and right now AAPL sits in 6th. They also need to get their smart tv out and soon. Samsung (smart, oled and curved), Sony and LG already coming out with their new lineup of tvs. Two years ago, AAPL was dominant in every category they were in. Now they are still at the top but the gap has closed considerably. Just a matter of time before margins start coming in.

AppleGuy wrote:

Sprintgeezer wrote:

I'd like to hear the thread response to the latest news regarding the share price:

The latest news is that Apple cut the orders for displays in half.

My 2ct:

1. Could be mistaken for the iPod Touch orders, that one does not sell well, haven't seen anyone with it yet.

2. Holiday quarter numbers will be out next week. I still expect everyone to be blown away then.

3. AT&T said this quarter is a record quarter for them for Apple devices, so something doesn't add up here.

4. Apple may have missed the boat on the "phablets" (tablet sized phones). More and more people are buying 5 to 6 inch phones and this trend is here to stay. I expect them to jump on it, too.

There are rumors it's all lies. The report originally said cut in half from 65m which was later edited out. 65m never made sense to begin with for 1 quarter.

Also there are other possibilities. New iPhone earlier than expected? It's already expecting an early release. Or maybe they found a new supplier after all the issues they've had.

AAPL wrote:

AppleGuy wrote:

I will bump this thread in January after the holiday quarter results. They will be insane.

I'm looking forward to that - it should be astronomical. A lot of reasons to be optimistic.

- iPhone 5 in full swing with supply issues fixed

- iPad update - 4th gen

- iPad mini release

- iMac update

- typical spike due to holiday sales

- additional stock recovery due to fiscal cliff resolution and certainty about capital gains and dividend taxes

That's why I bought additional shares recently to take advantage of this downturn before the monster quarter.

bumps

Bump.

Below $400 now. Where does it go from here?

Where's that monster quarter at? Or even hints of redefining products coming down the line?

Admit it, the title of this thread was right.

Yeah, it did turn out to be right. Apple phones gained market share in the US over Android phones, but got crushed everywhere else in the world. The Android tablets are supposed to catch Ipads by the end of 2013 too, I've heard.

In a way, it was inevitable. Apple definitely put out a far superior Ipod/Iphone/Ipad type product than anyone else for about a decade. Realistically, it's impossible to maintain that type of dominance forever. I think this is especially true with apple, because they don't let anyone else use their operating system, so it is essentially one company competing against every single other company combined. I think that this was a large part of the reason they got killed in the computer market, because windows was used on everything, and you could only use the apple operating system on their computers.

asdfsadf wrote:

Yeah, it did turn out to be right. Apple phones gained market share in the US over Android phones, but got crushed everywhere else in the world. The Android tablets are supposed to catch Ipads by the end of 2013 too, I've heard.

1. Market share isn't everything. In the whole phone business, there are only two companies making money: Apple (2/3 of profits) and SAMSUNG (1/3 of profits).

2. Apple still dominates the ecosystem. Apple users spend more money on apps and all major companies (except google of course) go iOS first with their Apps.

3. While it may be technically true that Android is catching up in phone sales, in fact, it really is just SAMSUNG. This is bad news for Google.

4. Apple has a 70+% share of tablets. All competitors need to sell their tablets at cost (or below) in order to sell them. See Googles Nexus 7 (the Nexus 10 doesn't sell at all....less than 1 Million sold) or Amazons Kindle.

In summary: all vital signs of Apple are excellent, the only bad news so far are the ones from analysts. But right now Apple is valued at a P/E below DELL.

"The recently released Gartner report states that Apple's iOS will account for 69 percent of media tablet operating systems in 2011, and 47 percent of the media tablet market in 2015"

They had 84% market share in 2010 and 60% by the end of 2012. Projected to have less than 50% in a year or two. That is not 70%, and it's going down. Like you said, market share isn't the only important thing, and Apple is absolutely going to remain a wildly successful company, but the dominance they have enjoyed in their niche during the last ten years is clearly coming to an end.

asdfsadf wrote:

They had 84% market share in 2010 and 60% by the end of 2012. Projected to have less than 50% in a year or two. That is not 70%, and it's going down.

Many of these are "throw-away" tablets. Something you get for christmas because it's cheap until you realize it's garbage and you buy an iPad. Look at web usage numbers. iPad is @ 82% (that news is from today):