trolling myself wrote:
At close on 12/30 it was 12217.56. You were off by a lot. Can you please quit posting these. Your historical average is that you don't know what you're talking about. I will pass on having you as my financial advisor. You may be an encyclopedia (and a helpful one at that) but you really just don't forecast well.
1) Up over 1000 points from when I made the prediction and off by just 700+. Considering the Dow could have gone DOWN as many people also said, not that bad of a prediction. Also, considering it has continued to go UP after the new year, that just goes to the point that it was undervalued when I made that call. Was I WRONG? Yep. Was I SUPER wrong? Nope.
2) Dude, sorry but I DO know what I'm talking about. I've always said that NO ONE can make accurate short-term calls, including ME and that I do so on occasion only for fun. I did not change my investment strategy based on how I thought the market would go short term.
3) You have dismissed me as your financial adviser because you don't believe I forecast well...well then, you don't do enough research about what it is I provide as a financial adviser, because forecasting is not part of it at all. If you go with historical averages, 73% of all years are UP years...there is no reason to believe that will drastically change going forward. My advice is clear and easy to follow: emergency fund of 3-6 months of expenses, debt free but for the house, 15% (OR MORE) goes into retirement accounts made up of mutual funds that are mainly in stocks (more bonds are you get closer to retirement), reinvest the dividends, buy a house that is no more than 25% of your take home pay and then pay it off early. Don't retire until you are 100% debt free. Do what I suggest and you'll have a great retirement, won't ever put yourself in a position to lose your shirt, won't spend all that much time dealing with your investments, and will never be worried about short-term drops in the market.