Iphone 5 is beginning of end of apple dominance

Q4 earnings growth was 20%. Earnings growth for FY 2013 will be 15-25%. iPhone isn't even licensed to a Chinese mobile carrier right now, nor is iPad available for sale. The stock is going back to $700 over the next 12mo. from the earnings growth alone. If markets continue to contract due to a global slowdown or fiscal cliff or whatever, the risk averse money will flow into businesses like APPL as well. Plus you have dividends. That this stock is undervalued right now is awesome to those that see the buying opportunity in it.

Apple Stock wrote:

As confident as ever. I'm still up over 50% YTD. I also got a dividend this year. I'm up over 300% since I first bought AAPL, an over 35% annualized return. I'm long on AAPL and loving my historic returns.

Did you make any money on your short-run shot in the dark? Or did you just come online to make guesses and give advice on something you know nothing about? I'm guessing the later. If you made money, cheers!

This volatility is typical of AAPL over the last few years. See between June and August 2010 where it dropped 12%. It then climbed 40% between August 2010 and December 2010. The further it gets (artificially) pulled down, the faster it slings back up. Get ready for the slingshot upwards.

Haha. apple stock down to 602 today from 683 on sept 13.

I dont care what you are up YTD. I didnt post on Jan 1. I posted on Sept 13. I also dont care what you are up since you bought Apple. The only thing relevant is how much are you DOWN since Sept 13. And that number is 12%.

I have no doubt the stock will come up from time to time but the long term decline has begun.[/quote]

Why do you only care about that particular timeframe? You got lucky in making a call that the price would be going down in this time frame. The person you are arguing with has gotten 300% back on his investment because he invested based on fundamentals not based on timing the market.

Unless you have access to the top computers in the business, you are not going to do very well trying to time the market based on gut feelings. It would be stupid to advise a person who is bullish based on fundamentals to take his money out of a stock every now and then based on gut feelings that it might drop.

His investment strategy is already working very well for him, and most trading ideas such as yours which involve trying to time the market is basic gambling.

And don't tell me you expect a decline in aapl stock based on fundamentals. This company's stock price is not this high because of speculation that it will grow super fast from here on out. With a PE of 13.5, it is trading like a mature company. Its stock is where it is at based on concrete results quarter to quarter. It merely has to continue building more products to meet the demand in order to continue grow at a decent clip.

Gotta give the OP some credit.

He started a thread that said to short Apple over over the next few months and a month and half later is down significantly.

It was profitable advice.

Lucky maybe, but better lucky than good sometimes.

Next question:

Buy now?

Short some more?

Walk away?

Near term - I'm slightly bearish. That's two qtrs in a row that AAPL has missed on earnings and AAPl always lowballs guidance. Also, the overall market has been rather weak. Most up days have been met with selling. And we got the fiscal cliff hanging over us.

Medium term - Bullish. Aapl is inline for a huge qtr. As has been pointed out, most of their problems has been on the supply side. Ipads still dominate tablets. I-tunes still fully entrenched. Next couple of quarters will be very very good for AAPL.

Long Term - bearish. Extremely tough to stay on top. Market cap of 600 billion. Competition heating up everywhere from tablets to smart phones to music to whatever (margins have come in the past two qtrs). Ever heard of Sony? They absolutely dominated for awhile. They invented the CD, Walkman, Betamax, Plasma TV, Blu-ray ...etc. Where are they now? Obviously they made a bunch of missteps and didn't have nearly the moat that AAPL does but that doesn't preclude AAPL from making mistakes. Isn't Cook the operational guy? Heck, the last two qtrs they messed up in releasing Maps and messed up on the supply side. And what new hit products is AAPL going to come up with now that Jobs is gone? A big big key for AAPL is how well they can become entrenched in China. Not sure there.

* wrote:

Gotta give the OP some credit.

He started a thread that said to short Apple over over the next few months and a month and half later is down significantly.

It was profitable advice.

Lucky maybe, but better lucky than good sometimes.

Next question:

Buy now?

Short some more?

Walk away?

Thank you "*". Long term short.

This is the Apple story. They made beautiful and functionally useful products at a time when competitors were looking to make cheaper and cheaper products to increase margins.

It was a wake-up call to their competitiors- consumers purchasing expensive hardware are willing to pay more for a better product.

Microsoft, primarily, now understand the game. Make the BEST product on the market bc when someone is dropping $500 they will be willing to pay $700 for a better product.

Last, Apple was the product that symbolized rich America. As much Angelina Jolie and Kim kardashian as anything else. Middle class wanted it, saved for it because they believed it made them look cool.

Guess what as soon as the middle class owns something the wealthy look for that next thing that will make them look cool. SEE BLACKBERRY.

Its over.

Bump this thread.

Hey fellas have you enjoyed that 20% drop in Apple stock since I made this call?

How much money (real dollars) have you lost? I know you have lost 20% but how much real cash.

Anyone else wanna talk about how I got "schooled."

683 when i made the call.

Now 558!

ha

ha

ha

I have lost 0 dollars. I told people to sell it at 700 back in Feb. It went to 707.

I was long from 531 to 698. Not with shares, but calls.

Haven't lost anything from AAPL. AAPL has been very good to me very easy and fun to trade.

I think so far this year...28k from options just on AAPL, not including index's.

I only made one bad trade with calls around June. Expected a bigger bounce and didn't get it, lost about 12k

If not for that one I'd be up 40k. Had it gone right though, (sooner) I would be up 80-90k right now since Jan 1.

Gonna have a lot of fun paying taxes on it. yay.

Problems with iPhone 5, I've had one for a month, had iPhone 4 for 2 years before that:

1) goes through battery wicked quick, won't go one whole day without charge

2) loss of google maps, apple maps sucks

3) you tube hard wired wy better than bogus ap

The Internet is quick and the new size is good.

That's a tricky question about how much one has "lost" because really the "loss" is only on paper. I mean, no one who is long AAPL is going to be selling now so that they can "realize" their "paper loss" from what they had 6 weeks ago! It's more like they might sell in a year or two when it's at $750 or $850, or whatever. Of course that's assuming that it's going up to those levels next year. Is it? How high will it go? Where will it be in 6 months? In 12 months?

Standard Bearer wrote:

Problems with iPhone 5, I've had one for a month, had iPhone 4 for 2 years before that:

1) goes through battery wicked quick, won't go one whole day without charge

2) loss of google maps, apple maps sucks

3) you tube hard wired wy better than bogus ap

The Internet is quick and the new size is good.

1. Goes through battery just as quick as the iPhone 4 and 4S. But because it's better, you use it more. I agree though, next time, they shouldn't try to make it thinner but try to make the battery bigger.

2. Apple Maps is far better than Google Maps with Traffic. Few days ago, Google told me to use the Holland tunnel in order to get to Jersey. But that one was closed because of Sandy. Apple Maps asked me to use the Lincoln.

3. The Webapp for Youtube beats the hard wired app except for the fact that it can not run in the background.

I don't like the new size. I have huge hands but one handed, I can't reach the back button or url bar in the browser.

I wouldn't be upset about the battery but I don't have 15 power cords laying around anymore, I only have one for the time being. What is wrong with apple maps? I read the stories and assumed it sucked...then I used it. I kept asking myself "what am I missing"? Apple Maps rule.I agree the size is a tad big. It isn't ever going to be big enough to replace a tablet so I think smaller is better. I was pissed that the youtube app was no longer there but with the new OS it's faster going thru Safari.

AppleGuy wrote:

1. Goes through battery just as quick as the iPhone 4 and 4S. But because it's better, you use it more. I agree though, next time, they shouldn't try to make it thinner but try to make the battery bigger.

2. Apple Maps is far better than Google Maps with Traffic. Few days ago, Google told me to use the Holland tunnel in order to get to Jersey. But that one was closed because of Sandy. Apple Maps asked me to use the Lincoln.

3. The Webapp for Youtube beats the hard wired app except for the fact that it can not run in the background.

I don't like the new size. I have huge hands but one handed, I can't reach the back button or url bar in the browser.

I find the battery doesn't last anywhere near as long as my iphone4. even if you adjust for time used.

For the maps; when you use Google Maps if you type in anything close, Google maps will find it; Apple Maps I find you have to type the exact address or it gives up.

I also miss Street View. I spent a lot of time running naked beside the Google Car and now it seems like a big waste.

I got the 32GB which is good as my last one was only 16GB which is not enough if you take a lot of pics.

Down another 3% today.

All you assigned go made fun of me, where are you now?

Fads come and go.

I'm here. Good call on the prediction. I didn't see it coming, especially this quarter. Do you have a long-term prediction on this one? Or medium term? It seems like every analyst is bullish (price targets from $700 to $1000). What do think will happen to it next year?

Apple stock wrote:

Down another 3% today.

All you assigned go made fun of me, where are you now?

You do know the market has been down since O was reelected. The beauty of picking a stock to drop is you get to gloat while it's down but when it goes up, and aapl will go up, you will be nowhere to be found.

I am in. Sold 1 aapl 545 put at 5.30. Expires tomorrow. I'll either collect $530 or be assigned the stock. So i'm effectively in at $539.70. I said before that i was near term slightly bearish on the stock. Stock has fallen from 604 to 537 since that day, Oct 26th. Medium term, i'm bullish on the stock. AAPl will start ramping up the closer we get to earnings. Granted, the stock has been alot weaker than i expected. Still, i don't think anybody wants to be short and carry it into what's going to be a blowout qtr. Major support for AAPL is in the 525 range. Break through that and maybe i'll have to reconsider. Long Term still bearish.

Apple stock wrote:

Down another 3% today.

All you assigned go made fun of me, where are you now?

Have you made any money on this call?

I just bought another 10 shares today at $548. Looking forward to my future earnings.