HEPS 2012 INDOOR

Wow indeed... nice work.

That aint a bad idea wrote:

predictorrrr wrote:

Hollimon will compete in the 400 Hurdles

Will he be running the hurdles outdoors at Princeton? Or taking the entire year off and coming back in 2013?

I can also see him running 48.x in the 400h. The kid is built for it.

I believe he is taking the entire year off for the hurdle training.

taking entire semester off will be back for 2013 season where they will have a beast 4x400 with Hopkins, Dinkins, Hollimon, 4th guy who SO or FR

Princeton in the national top 25 rankings (24th overall)

http://www.ustfccca.org/assets/rankings/div1/2012-itf/NCAAD1_2012_indWk4_TF_NationalRankingsTop25.pdf

Ok, just about a week to go until Heps. Princeton and Cornell are hosting meets at their home tracks while Dartmouth and Brown will be doing the USATF New England Championship meet. I don't think there will be too many changes in the performance listings though.

Any ideas on which combos people will do at Heps? Will D'Agostino and Neer even go against each other in any event (they are both 1-2 in the mile and 3k, and the both have the potential to do the 5k)? Can Alex Banfich keep up with these ladies? Same goes with Callahan and Merber for the 1000m or mile? Will Cabral do the 3k and 5k double again this year, or will he let Stilin get the 3k glory?

I'm somewhat excited by the pole vault and shot put for the men, as those should be some good competitions. Stephen Mozia and Ben Glauser, both frosh, have gone close to 60-ft. Nico Weiler and Dave Slovenski are both above 17-ft, and Weiler did better than Slovenski at the recent HYP.

Hewitt and Moran should make it interesting in the sprints, but Columbia's Marvellous should not be ignored either as she is pretty darn quick herself. Will Hewitt do 60-200-LJ-TJ again though for max points potential?

Is there anything else I could be missing?

C/M Runner wrote:

Will Cabral do the 3k and 5k double again this year, or will he let Stilin get the 3k glory?

Will he let Stilin get the glory? I don't think Princeton is too concerned with spreading their guys out so that more of their guys can get individual glory. Why wouldn't they try to have both score in the 3k? And it's not like Cabral would be better than Stilin in the 3k either. Stilin has beaten Cabral twice this season (3k and a mile) when they've raced together, and he has the fastest 3k PR in Ivy League History.

agreed.

Princeton will spread out as evenly as possible for max points (400m-5K)

If I had to guess:

400 Hopkins

500 Dinkins

800 Paternostro

1000 Callahan

Mile/3K Stilin

3K/5K Cabral

Mile Van Ackeren

3K/5K Bendtsen

I too am looking forward to this weekend's action, but I agree: there probably won't be a ton of changes to the lists.

I must say that my earlier analysis of the women's meet seemed to suggest that Princeton would be the beneficiary if Dartmouth tried to maximize its distance points. Sorry to be misleading. I *do* think that that scenario--assuming Dartmouth didn't go ahead and win the meet!--could give some help to Princeton, which is a serious contender for the title.

But the *major* beneficiary of the distance points' going in all directions would, I think, be Harvard. No doubt they'd love to see points deducted from CU's and CU's totals, and Harvard wasn't projecting any points in the distances anyway.

So: if you're the Dartmouth coach(es), what do you do? You probably can't go all-out for each of the Heps/ECAC/NCAA meets; do you try for maximum points at Heps, (semi-)write off the ECAC, and then go for an NCAA trophy (not that far-fetched: major points in at least two distance races)? Do you need to have your DMR go for a faster time at ECACs, and hence not work them to death at Heps? Do you figure that a lot of firepower will be returning next year, so maybe 2013 is the year for the Big Push at Heps--when *this* year is the last for Supino, Pappas, and others?

Do you enter your athletes "normally" for Heps, neither maximizing the possible points nor backing off a bit to be better ready/rested for ECAC and/or NCAAs? If so, what happens if you finish, say, ten points out of first? Just accept it, congratulate yourself on tremendous progress since last year, and move on? (Or do you drive yourself crazy with "what ifs"?)

Given that neither Columbia's nor Dartmouth's "studs" have times in the 5,000 yet; given that NCAA auto times in the event seem like a realistic possibility for them; given that they're unlikely to try for qualifying times at ECACs, just a week before Nationals, or to run a 5,000 this weekend, with Heps looming; my conclusion is that the women's 5,000 at Heps will be absolutely loaded with top runners trying for fast times, and that teams whose runners only have an outside chance at scoring in the 5,000 might well opt to run them fresh in the 3,000.

Of course, I could be reading the situation completely wrong. And I'm not the coach(es), so my speculations don't affect anyone. But it seems like several coaches *could* really have some tough decisions to make.

Of course, that's why they make the big dough...

BRF - Those Dartmouth distance girls are amazing. But how do they add 30 points to their total by entering the two stars in the 5K? I think you're saying they could pick up 30 between the relays and the 5K compared to the current descending order list. How would that work? Are you suggesting they do the mile, 3K, 5K and 4X800 quadruple? Wow - that would be legendary. I think that's what they'd need to do to improve on the score you came up with from tfrrs. They could go 1st and 2nd in the 5K but then the other events, including the 4X800, get tougher...and 'all' they've picked up is 18 points...still 3rd or 4th on your team chart, I believe unless a lot of other teams have bad days. D'Agostino is heads and shoulders above everyone (maybe Neer is close) in these races but that type of racing schedule on one weekend sounds tough with the other national goals she must have. You raise some good questions. HEPS always has interesting drama.

Looks to me like Dartmouth is very improved but just a few stars short of really competing for the title with the other teams you mentioned.

I fully agree with you that these women's distance events are good this year. Lots of good people from more than one team which is a nice change. And maybe Harvard does stand to benefit if the other teams divvy up those points. I think that H and P are the two teams to beat for the women.

As for the men, expect some great doubles from Princeton. Whoever suggested on another post that they'd 'spread' out the glory doesn't get what the HEPS is all about...they need to rack up points to beat Cornell.

Thanks for the interesting analysis BRF.

lrlrlr wrote:

BRF - Those Dartmouth distance girls are amazing. But how do they add 30 points to their total by entering the two stars in the 5K? I think you're saying they could pick up 30 between the relays and the 5K compared to the current descending order list. How would that work? Are you suggesting they do the mile, 3K, 5K and 4X800 quadruple? Wow - that would be legendary. I think that's what they'd need to do to improve on the score you came up with from tfrrs. They could go 1st and 2nd in the 5K but then the other events, including the 4X800, get tougher...and 'all' they've picked up is 18 points...still 3rd or 4th on your team chart, I believe unless a lot of other teams have bad days.

I think understand your objection. Essentially: if you opt for points in the 5,000, aren't you just giving away points in another event? Not necessarily.

My thinking (if it merits that label) was actually based primarily on Dartmouth's potential for scoring well into the double figures (total) on the two relays, using a lot of fresh personnel. The squad limit for Heps is, what, 33 or something? Even if they enter five in the shot and the weight, and four in the pent, their non(mid-)distance individuals (with even a remote chance to score) would likely total closer to 20 than 25.

So then you look for relayists. Dartmouth has one of the league's leading 400m runners--already counted as an individual--plus another 3-4 (looking to the 500 listings, as well) who could probably have carries in the 57.x range. They have the league's fastest 800m runner--already counted--plus another three (*not* counting the distancewomen, who'd easily double that total) who should be good for 2:15 or better in the 4x8. (And bear in mind that D has run the DMR in close to 11 minutes--though, granted, mostly with the stars--and has done lots of flat-track racing this season, which I think makes a difference.)

When you move to the distance runners, note that the Green have got *three* milers under 4:48. Yeah, one of them's that 800 runner, but 800/mile is a doable double (the schedule is actually a little easier on Day II). Then you can run one or both of the other two in the mile heats and bring her/them back in the 5,000 (~80min after the mile); followed on Day II by the mile final (presumably) and then, ~2hr or more later, the 3,000 and/or a relay leg.

Anyway, *if* D wanted to maximize its scoring in individual events, it still could have the luxury of fielding mostly-fresh relay squads--compared to the other contenders, most of whose potential relayists will likely see considerable duty in individual events.

Obviously, this whole scenario is predicated on running the socks off a few top kids, but it's not completely farfetched, and doesn't (I think) require anyone to quadruple.

Sorry to make this so lengthy. I don't have the time to shorten it (and it expands with the hot air).

BRF - Interesting. So, if a couple girls (or even just D'Aggostino) do the distance triple and another does the mile/800 double and assuming they have fresh runners for the relay, I could see how this could work for them. It does assume these girls could do all of it in one weekend against a good group of other girls though. Has anyone ever done this kind of triple before? (I know, I know, I'm sure it is on hepstrack.com somewhere).

Does the HEPS team limit of 33 (didn't realize until recently it was that low) actually work against the more balanced teams? A team like Dartmouth could essentially give away some events they have no chance in to keep a relay team fresh and simply focus on half a dozen individual events where they could score big. Teams with competitive athletes in a larger range of events (Cornell and Princeton men, Princeton/Harvard/Cornell/Columbia women based on your analysis) run the risk of being tired come relay time and could get 'caught' by a team like Dartmouth that played their 'cards' a certain way.

Interesting strategic concerns, which was the point of your earlier post, I believe. Thanks for doing all the homework.

lrlrlr wrote:

Does the HEPS team limit of 33 (didn't realize until recently it was that low) actually work against the more balanced teams? A team like Dartmouth could essentially give away some events they have no chance in to keep a relay team fresh and simply focus on half a dozen individual events where they could score big. Teams with competitive athletes in a larger range of events (Cornell and Princeton men, Princeton/Harvard/Cornell/Columbia women based on your analysis) run the risk of being tired come relay time and could get 'caught' by a team like Dartmouth that played their 'cards' a certain way.

I'm not absolutely sure 33 is the number, but it's something like that. It obviously puts a premium on getting multiple events out of individuals. And you can see how it helps keep a team like Cornell's, with ~100 on the roster--several dozen of them very competitive--from completely dominating the relays. This year the Big Red have ~40 women with top-15 marks in Heps individual events; most of the other schools would consider any of those performers to be Heps-worthy, but about a half-dozen won't get to compete at all.

In past years, when Cornell was dominating anyway and had the meet in hand midway through Day II, they sometimes had the luxury of letting also-rans (women who didn't advance from the heats, say--and/or women dropping down from their usual distances, or sprinters moving up) run the relays. These pickup relays could still finish in the top six, so all the runners would earn their "sash" (a very big deal at Cornell) for scoring at Heps.

But they still would have competed in other events, because they all had at least the possibility of scoring individually, before the relays. You're right: if you try to cover all the events you (usually) just can't afford to bring a relay-only runner. But Dartmouth isn't really in that situation.

Anyway, I confess it's an unlikely scenario. We'll know about the entries in a week's time...

Results from the Heptathlon at Princeton are up. Scores put Ricky Sheldon at 4th in the league and Stephen Soerens at 8th. As is always the case with the multis, anything can happen at the meet. I wouldn't be surprised if both scored.

http://www.directathletics.com/results/track/23270_1474778.html

TigerAlum wrote:

Results from the Heptathlon at Princeton are up. Scores put Ricky Sheldon at 4th in the league and Stephen Soerens at 8th. As is always the case with the multis, anything can happen at the meet. I wouldn't be surprised if both scored.

http://www.directathletics.com/results/track/23270_1474778.html

Thanks, TA. Yeah, the multis tend to be a crap shoot. Cornell's guys get in at least two multi competitions before Heps, which I'm sure is an advantage overall; OTOH you figure a guy with only one meet under his belt might be ready to score significantly higher at the next. And of course there's generally a wild card at Heps, with no mark during the season...

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On a separate note, Cornell's Deneault meet results are up:

Several good performances, but not too much movement on the Ivy League list except in PV (men and women) and in the throws, especially:

Freshman STEPHEN MOZIA, 62-8 SP!

Not bad for a discus thrower...

Heps roster limit is 35.

C/m runner wrote:

Heps roster limit is 35.

Nope. 33 indoors...36 outdoors.

Bet you anything you want.

BRF wrote:

Freshman STEPHEN MOZIA, 62-8 SP!

Not bad for a discus thrower...

And, I neglected to add: a facility record and school record, breaking Dave Doupe's mark from 1975. Great series, too!

I've seen marks, set this weekend, from CU, CU, and PU.

Was anyone else in action? I somehow had thought that Dartmouth, at least, would also be competing...

Okay, assuming all the weekend's action is listed on the TFRRS site, very few women's events saw changes in projected points: the 800, vault, weight, and pentathlon. No changes in relay positions.

Of course, only the three active teams (CU/CU/PU) had the *potential* to improve their point totals; as it happened, Columbia ended up taking a slight loss, while the big gainer was Cornell.

With all the usual caveats, here (in bold) are the updated total scores:

All WOMEN's events

Cornell +15 = 121, Columbia -3 = 100, Harvard -4 = 99, Dartmouth -1 = 74, Princeton +1 = 69, Brown -2 = 36, Penn -2 = 22, Yale -4 = 4

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A few more of the men's event listings were affected by the weekend's action: the 400, 500, 800, hurdles, vault, long jump, weight, and heptathlon. Princeton was the beneficiary, while Cornell's total remained unchanged.

These are the updated (in bold) total projected scores:

All MEN's events

Princeton +7 = 188, Cornell 183, Columbia -1 = 84, Harvard -4 = 54, Penn -1 = 27, Brown -1 = 23, Dartmouth 15, Yale 14