Dow to close 2011 at 13,000 or above

12,291 with 3 business days to go. Nice call, Flagpole.

OK, I know there are a few days to go but this will be 0 for 2 in "Dow will be above x by year end" predictions for FP. Can you please do us a favor and just drop this nonsense about predicting short term market performance?

Thanks in advance.

Well said. Thank you.

Flagpole has grown strangely silent. LOL.

He's probably on vacation.

I think willy's bullishness is winning the day over the frightened doomsayers who have been the dominant voices all the way from 7000 to 12000.

Personally, I hope the S&P stays below 13,000 for another month so I don't have to pay taxes on the spy 130 puts I wrote when it was at 11,000 recently. Hoping to have the shares put to me and to pay the taxes when I sell them in 2025 or so.

sissyfus wrote:

He's probably on vacation.

That's exactly right my brother...was on vacation soaking up the sun.

As we sit here today (12/29) it looks like the Dow will likely not hit 13,000 by the end of the year. Oh well. Guess I need to hang my head in shame. NOT!

As is evidenced by some of the respondents, it is clear that most of you would be crushed to get a prediction wrong. I couldn't care less. I've long said (and agree with) that people can't accurately predict short-term market moves, and so I never bet money on such moves (or suggest that you do either)...just make a prediction once in a while for fun.

I maintain though that with how companies have been doing, the continued decline in unemployment and analyst's outlooks for 2012, that the Dow SHOULD be at 13,000.

So, when I made that call, the Dow was at 11,200. As of right now, it's over 12,200, so a 1,000+ point climb...not the 1800 point climb I predicted (though ~400 points today and tomorrow would do it), but I will likely be wrong.

That original thread is a fun read though. Here it is:

I won't call anyone out (because that's not the Flagpole way), but a scan of that thread will provide the following predictions:

1) Gold will at least match the Dow climb from then...umm...NOPE. Gold is sucking the big one...down to $1,532.

2) The Dow will end the year BELOW 11,400...umm...NOPE.

3) We'll be lucky if it is above 11,000...umm...well, I guess we're lucky.

4) Not a chance in hell that the Dow closes above 10,000...umm...NOPE.

Regardless of who was right and who was wrong though, it was a fun ride in 2011.

The question is, what is fundamentally different today than in May or even July when the Dow was approaching 13,000?

My answer is political uncertainty - in the US Congress and in Europe's handling of the Euro.

The actual performance of the companies in the Dow have not declined.

It won't happen, but it would be funny if there was a massive sell off and the Dow closed the year at 9999. Flagpole should know better than to count his chickens before they hatch.

webbincville wrote:

It won't happen, but it would be funny if there was a massive sell off and the Dow closed the year at 9999. Flagpole should know better than to count his chickens before they hatch.

Dude, the Dow right now is at 12,254.41. Sorry, but dropping below 10,000 by end of day tomorrow is so NOT happening, so I'll count this chicken...ONE!

There's still Friday. But right now (12/29/2011 1:13 PM EST) we have

DJIA

12,264.75

+113.34

+0.93%

Pay attention wrote:

I'll split the difference and say we'll be closer to 12,000.

Looks like we have a winner!

I case y'all missed it, Lyndsey Williams was back on the AJ show and said a 30-40% devaluation by the Fed is next on the horizon. Apparently, all the things in his speech

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm

are supposed to happen. So far, all have come true expect the last, the devaluation.

Remember this important point, just because this was predicted and fulfilled doesn't mean it is not a conspiracy theory. Even if the devaluation happens, it is coincidence that all the things in the speech came true and there is no conspiracy by the Fed.

From flagpole a few weeks ago... I'm quoting you, dipstick.

"I don't deserve to be lumped in with Peeps. He makes short term predictions and actually makes moves based on those. I don't do that. I make a short-term predictions for fun only, but my investment strategy remains the same precisely because I know that NO ONE can accurately and consistently (and both are needed) make short term predictions"

Also, you prove your cluelessness by continuing to call people 'brother' and by referring to yourself in the third person. (Only Elmo and Cavemen do that)

For the life of me, I cannot see why anyone would take advice from a 50-50 guy.

Do you have a point, or are you just hating?

Wow the market is almost 50% of what it used to be.

This means we have almost 50% of what we used to have, not counting deductions for inflations and taxes on same.

This is so awesome!!!!

Thank you, Flagpole, for showing The Way!

Flagwrong wrote:

Wow the market is almost 50% of what it used to be.

The Dow's been over 20k?

Flagpole wrote:

I have not made any short-term predictions for 2011 due to very murky waters...until today...so for entertainment purposes only, here's the prediction:

The Dow will close 2011 at 13,000 or above. That's about a 16% climb from today's 11,200 area.

Enjoy.

Dow at 12,217 at end of the year. 55% of the way there. At least it's not the other direction.

Pay attention wrote:

I'll split the difference and say we'll be closer to 12,000.

Turtle licker wrote:

Looks like we have a winner!

Thanks. Where do I claim my "prize"?