Iphone 5 is beginning of end of apple dominance

rekrunner wrote:

This is why I say that the stock price is a poor measure.

A poor measure of what for whom? I'm not sure what you're arguing.

The OP stated that people should short AAPL because of the iPhone 5. You jumped on board stating that AAPL is valued so high because of "collective fear and faith". The PE of AAPL doesn't jive with that notion. AAPL has a relatively stable PE at a reasonable level for a mature stock which is based on actual earnings.

Since the point that the OP called for an AAPL short, Apple sold over 2 million iPhone 5s in the first 24 hours of pre-order availability. This is double the amount sold in the same period for the iPhone 4S (which was 66% more than the amount sold for the iPhone 4). The stock price is up around 6% from the OP's "short call" point and climbing.

I maintain that shorting AAPL right now would not be a good call. I've been hearing the same call from people for a couple years now. Instead of listening to the chicken littles, I've enjoyed my nearly 350% gains in 4 years.

You can lose your shirt and 'short' now if you want or you can buy some AAPL and enjoy the gains... or most likely, you can continue to sit on the sidelines doing nothing and claim to be an expert.

Hey Dumbshit,

Read my post again. I quote:

"Stock may still rise for a bit, but the tide has begun to turn. Short this stock in the next couple months."

APPLE STOCK wrote:

Hey Dumbshit,

Read my post again. I quote:

"Stock may still rise for a bit, but the tide has begun to turn. Short this stock in the next couple months."

You expect AAPL to go from selling 2 million iPhone 5s in 24 hours to having their stock tank in a couple months?

I know you won't short the stock. You know nothing about investing and are anti-Apple for the sake of being anti-Apple. Continue watching from the sidelines - I'll continue enjoying my huge returns.

AAPL wrote:

APPLE STOCK wrote:

Hey Dumbshit,

Read my post again. I quote:

"Stock may still rise for a bit, but the tide has begun to turn. Short this stock in the next couple months."

You expect AAPL to go from selling 2 million iPhone 5s in 24 hours to having their stock tank in a couple months?

I know you won't short the stock. You know nothing about investing and are anti-Apple for the sake of being anti-Apple. Continue watching from the sidelines - I'll continue enjoying my huge returns.

Hey Dumbshit,

Read my post again, again. Said nothing about tanking.

What I said was we are nearing the peak of Apple popularity. I never pretended to tell anyone what day it would peak on, but over the next several years they wont sustain what they have going right now.

APPLE STOCK wrote:

Hey Dumbshit,

Read my post again, again. Said nothing about tanking.

What I said was we are nearing the peak of Apple popularity. I never pretended to tell anyone what day it would peak on, but over the next several years they wont sustain what they have going right now.

I see you've changed from "the next couple months" to "the next several years". Now you're stating something that's entirely possible. They may not be as dominant in 5-10 years. That's the nature of technology. That has little to do with suggesting to "short this stock in the next couple months."

APPLE STOCK wrote:

Regardless of the Samsung ruling,

iPhone 5 is not the cause but a symptom of the disease. There is nowhere left for Apple to go and the "status symbol" status of Apple has officially peaked.

Now everyone owns an iPhone and Mac Book and rich snobs will look for the "next thing."

Stock may still rise for a bit, but the tide has begun to turn. Short this stock in the next couple months.

"status symbol of Apple has officially peaked"?

Where did you get that official information? Oh, right - you just made it up.

Read it again, dumbshit.

They are not mutually exclusive statements.

quote]

"status symbol of Apple has officially peaked"?

Where did you get that official information? Oh, right - you just made it up.[/quote]

It's an opinion of course, but well done, your response was sheer brilliance.

I've done my homework on the matter. http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveschaefer/2012/09/15/forbes-markets-rewind-apple-unveils-iphone-5-stocks-blast-off-after-bernanke/

Hey AAPL,

Have you enjoyed your 10% drop in apple stock since I made that call?

You still confiednt?

Mad bro????

APPLE STOCK wrote:

Hey AAPL,

Have you enjoyed your 10% drop in apple stock since I made that call?

You still confiednt?

Mad bro????

You are clairvoyant.

MS stock peak at $18.50 a week ago. Dropped below $17 yesterday. A 9% drop.

Google stock: Peak $760 a week ago. Dropped below $680 yesterday. A 10% drop.

MS stock wrote:

APPLE STOCK wrote:

Hey AAPL,

Have you enjoyed your 10% drop in apple stock since I made that call?

You still confiednt?

Mad bro????

You are clairvoyant.

MS stock peak at $18.50 a week ago. Dropped below $17 yesterday. A 9% drop.

Google stock: Peak $760 a week ago. Dropped below $680 yesterday. A 10% drop.

So you are saying that because MS and google dropped 10% then actually you havent lost any money if it has also dropped 10%.

Im confused. I never made any comments about those stocks. Not sure why they are relevant. Apple stock is down 10% since I made that post. Watch it continue to fall over the next few YEARS.

Apple stock is down, some analysis just don't understand what's going on. They look at AT&T's and Verizon's numbers for this quarter and are disappointed. What you need to keep in mind is that for this past fiscal quarter, they had the iPhone 5 for about 10 days and the rest was slow sales on the (old) 4S. iPhone 5 was sold out in 5 hours or so and to this point the stock remains constraint. Apple is pretty good at predicting demand and I expect the supply to keep up with demand right around Christmas time. Christmas quarter sales are going to be HUGE.

Also they just updated pretty much all their other blockbuster. iPads, iPods, Macbook Pros, iMacs. And they always have the cheap model to lure you into their stores and know that after side by side comparison you will go home with the big one (Retina iPad vs. iPad Mini, retina Macbook Pro vs. old Macbook Pro, new iPod touch vs. old iPod touch.

Stock will jump at least 7% after next quarter's results.

Apple's revenue and earnings continue to grow yet you reason the market will value the business less. Based on what do you forecast declining demand for the company's shares? Based on too much value appreciation in the past few years? That doesn't mean anything. Based on you don't like the tech but it sells tens of millions of units a quarter? When a business grows earnings it's value increases. In this case increased earnings will decrease the P/E ratio until a rising price corrects it. With their current product mix, Apple will continue to be a goldmine for at least the next few years.

A lot of people view a $600 valuation as 'too expensive' based on dollar valuation (which is ignorant but that is another discussion). What happens in another year or two when Cook splits the stock 10:1? Will people buy it up because it's 'cheaper'? Probably, and that plus earnings growth plus dividend growth will likely drive the share price to much higher valuations.

APPLE STOCK wrote:

Hey AAPL,

Have you enjoyed your 10% drop in apple stock since I made that call?

You still confiednt?

Mad bro????

As confident as ever. I'm still up over 50% YTD. I also got a dividend this year. I'm up over 300% since I first bought AAPL, an over 35% annualized return. I'm long on AAPL and loving my historic returns.

Did you make any money on your short-run shot in the dark? Or did you just come online to make guesses and give advice on something you know nothing about? I'm guessing the later. If you made money, cheers!

This volatility is typical of AAPL over the last few years. See between June and August 2010 where it dropped 12%. It then climbed 40% between August 2010 and December 2010. The further it gets (artificially) pulled down, the faster it slings back up. Get ready for the slingshot upwards.

Two more thoughts:

1. Apple used to be a computer company. You buy computers year round, not typically as a gift in the holiday season. Now they are an iPhone and iPad company, which are commonly given as gifts. App store purchases (remember, Apple gets a 25% cut of every purchase) are really through the roof during the holidays. Again, it's going to be a spectacular quarter for them.

2. 2 weeks after its introduction, the iPhone 5 already accounted for more web traffic than the Samsung Galaxy S3. That tells you what people are using their phones for --> Samsung mostly to talk or maybe it's sitting on the shelf

As confident as ever. I'm still up over 50% YTD. I also got a dividend this year. I'm up over 300% since I first bought AAPL, an over 35% annualized return. I'm long on AAPL and loving my historic returns.

Did you make any money on your short-run shot in the dark? Or did you just come online to make guesses and give advice on something you know nothing about? I'm guessing the later. If you made money, cheers!

This volatility is typical of AAPL over the last few years. See between June and August 2010 where it dropped 12%. It then climbed 40% between August 2010 and December 2010. The further it gets (artificially) pulled down, the faster it slings back up. Get ready for the slingshot upwards.[/quote]

Haha. apple stock down to 602 today from 683 on sept 13.

I dont care what you are up YTD. I didnt post on Jan 1. I posted on Sept 13. I also dont care what you are up since you bought Apple. The only thing relevant is how much are you DOWN since Sept 13. And that number is 12%.

I have no doubt the stock will come up from time to time but the long term decline has begun.

Quotes from one of the articles below echo exactly what i said one and a half months ago.

"The iPhone 5's initial sales were disappointing. The first weekend's sales number, 5 million, was significantly worse than the "worst case scenario" put forth by Wall Street's top Apple analyst."

"Longer-term, increasing competition, maturing markets, and pressure on Apple's extraordinary profit margin may become bigger concerns. Apple's competitors have now arguably caught up with the iPhone, or at least gotten close enough that the differences between brands are only important to tech snoots."

Here are a few articles you noobs may want to read:

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_21852764/apples-stock-faces-rare-doubts-before-todays-earnings

http://blog.sfgate.com/techchron/2012/10/25/apple-boasts-another-big-quarter-of-sales/

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/why-apple-stock-dropping-122259431.html

Under 600