SAMMY'S PERFORMANCE - MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN BEIJING?

bikila02 wrote:

Kebede showed nowhere near the patience a real champion needs to show in order to win such a race. Gebreselassie would have never taken the lead like that all the times. To me it looked several times as if Kebede was afraid to let Wanjiru lead even for a moment. Why didn´t he stay behind the Kenyan for a while, gather his strength and then launch the final attack.

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I think Kebede's startegy was to try and mentally break Wanjiru by showing that he wasn't going to let Wanjiru pass him. In hindsight it was a mistake, but who knew that Wanjiru was simply feigning attacks to osyche out and wear down his opponent?

If you watch the video of the last 2 miles you will see its apparent that Wanjiru would attack and then quickly back off the pace immediately once Kebede also sped up. Its really quite interesting. I dont think Wanjiru's attacks were really attacks at all (that is I dont think he was even tryong to pass Kebede at that point). I mean think about it - the obvious thing to do would be to let Kebede lead and then kick him down at the end with his superior speed.

The ALI-FRAZIER analogy was perfect - Kebede was beating on Wanjiru (and everybody else) from 30km on, and Wanjiru was letting him tire himself out. Then he delivered his final knockout blow with 800m to go and Kebede was done.

Of course I could be wrong and maybe Wanjiru was really trying to pass him. But it doesnt look that way on the video.

What a Race!

Kebede's tactics were perfect and they very nearly won him the race. He doesn't have a kick, has never raced on the track, and has never put in a really fast surge. He had to break the field with a relentless grinding, punishing pace. Which he did: breaking everyone except wanjiru, but coming so close. Wanjiru was basically broken, he was visibly strugling and fell into 3rd place. However Kebede had nothing left to KO him and his pace fell rapidly. The last 12k were relatively slow which allowed Wanjiru back in the race and pull off one of the greatest finishes in marathon history!

Lets hope Lel and Geb can put on a similar performance in NY. If they are both fit it should be a great race. The WR holder against the 4 x London and 2 x NY champion. Both have great pace and both have great kicks (if they are fit).

However Kebede had nothing left to KO him and his pace fell rapidly.

That what makes it even more a big tactical mistake in countering two "false attacks" of Wanjiru immediately instead of letting Wanjiru a while on front. Like I said he showed no patience and was desperate to loose Wanjiru instead of gathering his last strength, recuperating behind Wanjiru and then delivering the blow. The pace fell because they were just running each other and not time or opponents who had long left them at this point of the race. It reminded me a bit of cyclists who before the last sprint to the finish want to maneuver themselfs into the best position before launching the attack.

Again talking about Geb. He has been great on track, but track is different from Marathon and I insist he has only won races with pacemakers and little competition. I know that he had a contract with Berlin which (even if the would have had the money) didn´t allow the Race Organisation to contract strong competitors. I don´t think he stands a chance against Martin Lel and a couple of others specially if Lel has regained his form. In my eyes Lel has been the best Marathon runner in the last decade. Unfortunately he has been dealing with quite a few injuries and illnesses throughout the years. Otherwise his long list of winning Marathons would be even longer.

Lekuta wrote:

Any word on Wajiru's last 800m? Sub-2:10?

Don't know if anyone answered later but I paused the DVR several times and it looks like he passed the 800 sign at 2:04:20, which would make the last 800 about 2:05. Sounds pretty freakin' awesome to me.

Anyone know of faster final 800s? I don't recall seeing 800 markers in many other major marathons, unfortunately.

As fine as this Chicago race was for Wanjiru, it doesn't top the Beijng marathon run in the heat, were Wanjiru was simply in a class by himself, in what clearly was the most dominating Olympic marathon performance of all time. And perhaps the best marathon effort of all time - no pacing or staged support in the Olympics, and certainly not much relief from that heat in 2008.

Now, his manager may think this Chicago race was better. Given that he expressed that Wanjiru was not in top shape (like he clearly was in Beijing), he concludes this was a unique or rare performance. And I can understand this. But no runner in the world was going to stay with Wanjiru and battle him to the very end like Kebede did here in Beijing. I don't think conflating a great race (Chicago) with an absolutely superior performance (Beijing) is helpful.

No knock on the wonderful performance of Wanjiru and his rival, however. A simply great race.

One thing overlooked throughout this thread; the word constantly in Kenya is that Wanjiru is a big drinker. No-one expected him to run well in Chicago such was the poor state of his 'preparations'. Don't be surprised if this catches up with him and he never achieves the sort of time that a lot of you assume is easy.

[quote]ventolin^3 wrote:

i estimate that the 26'17.75wr is worth nearer 12'32

Ventolin, you are not right.......the 5000 WR is considered by worldclass runners as far tougher than the 10000 WR. There are many guys who have run 12:55 and under and many of them consider it possible to pass in 13:08 and repeat it (given good pacing). Good pacing is considered the problem. By the 5000 record is considered IMPOSSIBLE. That is what the people in the game think. Your theories on paper are not as good as you think.

That would be Ali-Foreman (Rope-a-Dope), but still a good analogy.

Sammy ran very well. However Kebede did not have the day he had in London. If we would have seen that Kebede then Sammy would have been defeated easily. Its very difficult for these guys to run at such a high level each time out. This is the ONLY good run Sammy has produced since Chicago last year. He is a far better marathon runner than Kebede and didnt need to be on top of his game to dust him. However, Sammy is slowly losing his shit. Kebede ran scared the last 2 miles because he knew he didnt have top form like he did in London.

Back to Geb, he won in Fukuoka against Gharib with a 62:34 last half in a tactical race. He won Dubai this year with a 2:36 final kilo. He has run 203.To say he doesnt even stand a chance against Lel in NYC, especially after dominating the Great North Run in 59 and change, seems crazy. The greatest runner in the history of the world ALWAYS stands a chance.

runn wrote:

That would be Ali-Foreman (Rope-a-Dope), but still a good analogy.

Sorry bout that....not a big boxing guy. I just knew there was one fight where he got pounded on for most of the fight, and then when his opponent got tired he pounced on him.

Hey ventolin, do you think kennster was worth a 12:34 in 2005. He went for the wr that year for 5k and came thru 3k in about 7:32. Do you think if he woulda gone out slower than it was possible that he could've broke the wr?

more than a rumour wrote:

One thing overlooked throughout this thread; the word constantly in Kenya is that Wanjiru is a big drinker. No-one expected him to run well in Chicago such was the poor state of his 'preparations'. Don't be surprised if this catches up with him and he never achieves the sort of time that a lot of you assume is easy.

Overlooked? No. See page 1 post:

_____________

Sammy's win today was:

a) One of the greatest marathon races of all time

b) A disaster for Sammy's chances to ever get the WR

c) Both of the above

I would say c) IF all those stories about him getting so out of shape/unmotivated earlier this year are true. What must Sammy be thinking over the next few weeks - "Hey, I can goof off, even start a beer belly, but still nobody can beat me if I just train for a few months."

Now, will he bother to train and take care of his body consistently for 3 - 4 years - which is what it would take for him to really put forth his best?

Time will tell. But I have my doubts.

A supreme talent. And a supreme marathon racer. If he turns out to be a supreme marathon trainer we will see some truly amazing things over the next four years.

I love fight club wrote:

Hey ventolin, do you think kennster was worth a 12:34 in 2005. He went for the wr that year for 5k and came thru 3k in about 7:32. Do you think if he woulda gone out slower than it was possible that he could've broke the wr?

i think he did better than he couda expected with that 12'37

any 10k wr holder has a legit right to claim the 5k wr, but the only <12'40 guys at the time were geb/komen with superb 1500 speed ( komen 3'29.4 & geb with 3'31i, which musta been worth 3'29 outdoors ) & kennster doesn't have that ( he's had 3 good goes at 1500 & best is 3'32, albeit the bell-laps were piss-poor but he did get crushed in 2 of those races by komen2 & lil choge - 3'29 guys - kennster ISN'T a 3'29 guy, maybe high-3'30/low-3'31 )

he broke the 5k wr because he has incredible 10k ability & probably had nearer 26'10 ability at the time & that allowed him to run 12'37 with "only" high-3'30/low-3'31 ability

with better pacing that day he may have gone into the 12'35s, but there is little meat to carve from that bone & faster than this ( 12'32/12'33 ) will really need 3'29 speed & he has never had that ( obviously, it's possible to run 12'32/12'33 with high-3'30/low-3'31 speed but you are asking 10k ability close to 26-flat !!! )

not quite right wrote:Ventolin, you are not right.......the 5000 WR is considered by worldclass runners as far tougher than the 10000 WR. There are many guys who have run 12:55 and under and many of them consider it possible to pass in 13:08 and repeat it (given good pacing). Good pacing is considered the problem. By the 5000 record is considered IMPOSSIBLE. That is what the people in the game think. Your theories on paper are not as good as you think.

what athletes consider possible & what stats indicate are 2 different animals

the old conversion of

10k = (2*5k) + 1'00

isn't precise

a 13'00 is worth probably nearer 27'10 - 27'15 rather than 27'00

the iaaf tables don't seem to be available at present but a reasonable proxy is the mercier calculator :

which gives 26'17.53 = to 12'31.80 !

ok it's far from foolproof, but i'd certainly suggest 26'17 is significantly superior to 12'37

ventolin^3 wrote:

what athletes consider possible & what stats indicate are 2 different animals

And what you believe to be reality, and what actually is reality, are also, OFTEN (not always), two different things.

ventolin^3 wrote: the mercier calculator :

http://myweb.lmu.edu/jmureika/track/Mercier/instructions.html

which gives 26'17.53 = to 12'31.80 !

ok it's far from foolproof, but i'd certainly suggest 26'17 is significantly superior to 12'37

Ok, you duly noted that calculators are imprecise, and are only guesstimates. So we will both agree that we are only making guesses. Your, the IAAF's, mercier's, and every other calculator are only as good as the logic behind their calculations.

Here's my take:

First, let's definitely establish that there have been waaaaaay less competitive, world class 10k's than their have been 5k's over the last many years. Furthermore, many other potential 10k stars are attracted to the roads. This strongly suggests that there could have been many more 26:30 runners if african 5k stars had not focused on the 5k, or african marathon/road stars did not focus on the roads. Therefore, Kenny would have most likely have had a lot more company in the rarefied air of 26:30 or below if the 10k had not been so diluted by the aforementioned situations.

Second, let's look at 3 runners that demonstrate that sub 26:30 potential is not so out of this world: Nicholas Kemboi, Abebe Dinkesa Negera, and Sammy Wanjiru. Both Kemboi and Dinkesa ran 26:30 with very thin resumes. Dinkesa is extremely injury prone, and Kemboi apparently had little interest in serious training (according to Renato). Yet, despite these achilles heels, and lack of strong history of racing or training, these guys both ran 26:30. CLEARLY, each was capable of 26:25 if they had been healthier or had more motivation. With that in mind, 26:17 does not seem so shocking (no more shocking than 12:37).

And Wanjiru, (and this is related to my first point concerning some 10k guys leaving the event and going to the roads), ran 26:41 at age 18 after trying to go with Bekele through 5k at about 13:10 (!) which was virtually his pr at the time. Talk about SUICIDE pace. Yet he still ran 26:41 at age 18(!!) off of a SUICIDE pace! Now certainly, I can almost say absolutely, if Wanjiru had fully focused on the track and the 10k, and ran saner splits in future races, in his prime he would have easily been another 26:25 guy (at least. Maybe 26:20). So there you have it, three guys with 26:25 potential at least.

Thirdly, after Geb and Komen, the next group of 5 guys behind Bekele's 12:37 are 9-12 seconds behind his record. That would be equivalent of being 18-24 second behind at 10k. However, at 10k, after Geb the next groups of guys are 10, 13, 13, 18, 19, 20, 21, 21, 22, 22, etc, seconds behind. In short, there are MORE GUYS CLOSER, %-wise, to the 10k record than there are guys that close (%-wise) to the 5k record. This despite the all-time 10k list being diluted by the roads and lack of top 10k races compared to 5k races. Read that again: MORE GUYS CLOSER %-wise TO THE 10K RECORD THAN THERE ARE GUYS THAT CLOSE TO THE 5K RECORD.

So considering the above assault of facts and reasoning, your statement that "26:17 is far superior to 12:37, and probably worth 12:32" just doesn't hold up.

One last thing:

You said yourself that Komon's road WR might be worth 26:25. So including the guys I mentioned, there's another guy with 26:25 potential at least. Kenny has more company in 10k runners within 1.5% of his record than he does in company of 5k runners within 1.5% of his 5k record, and would have even more if there were more top 10k's, and less road $ stealing away potential top 10k stars.

your analysis is as usual flawed in many area

1) the calculators/tables are based on a lot of hard stats & are inevitably superior to your "gut" or "stick wet finger in the air" analysis

2) the 10k/road guys are superior to the current 5k guys, but not to the extent you believe

you are offering the former, ideal races, but not the later

- big choge ran 12'51 with another kenyan photo-finishing him in brutal 95F doha heat - easily worth a 12'45 in a temperate stockholm/paris/hengelo

- bunch of guys, li'l kennster/merga/some kenyans ran 12'53 - 12'56 in races with invariably piss-poor 4th kms where tactics raised it's ugly head - these wouda again been unquestionably ``12'50 clockings if run for the time only & not the win, & possibly upto 12'45

thus using your "method", this leaves them 8s shy of wr & 16s over 10k, yielding 26'33 performances, which is not far behind the 26'25s of the top 10k/road guys

3) despite the 5k guys being capable of 12'45, these guys are still are at a poor level compared to the days of yore ( < 12'40 ones ) - none of the current crop have one of the 2 qualities to run <12'40

a) <3'30 speed of komen or geb

&/or

b) near wr or actual 10k wr ability

none of the current 5k guys has better than likely 3'32 speed or 26'40 endurance, which coincidentally from :

http://www.jundo.co.uk/

-%% 7'24.5 , 12'45.9

which tallies well with 12'45 ability for these guys currently

2 variants to show what is possible to run faster 5k

3'30/26'40 ->7'22.0 , 12'43.5

3'32/26'25 ->7'22.9 , 12'41.2

for a 5k guy, it's likely to be easier to drop from 26'40 to 26'25 than 3'32 to 3'30

however, as stated none of the current 5k guys look to have that "special" ability which will give them these times ( maybe li'l kennster has best shot )

until a 3'30 kenyan moves upto 5k seriously or a 26'30 moves down to 5k, we won't be seeing anything better than 12'45

this is a simple testament to current talent NOT a reflection on the relative merits of the strengths of 12'37 or 26'17, which is a separate argument already addressed

He's not been running below 2.06 in the last 2 year, in the best conditions, how can he win a competitive marathon ? He 37, nobody can beat aging, not even Haile