So don't try. Got it. Trafeh made a "fool" of himself going for it in the 5K. Ball players should never swing at the plate. They look like fools if they miss.
IT IS BETTER TO HAVE TRIED AND FAILED THAN TO NEVER HAVE TRIED AT ALL!
So don't try. Got it. Trafeh made a "fool" of himself going for it in the 5K. Ball players should never swing at the plate. They look like fools if they miss.
IT IS BETTER TO HAVE TRIED AND FAILED THAN TO NEVER HAVE TRIED AT ALL!
A 5000 (even more so a 10000) is not a 1500. One or two guys can go out , run together and run an excellent time in the 5000 (remember Dobson and Hall at the NCAA 6 or 7 years ago). Not the same in the 1500. In the 1500, you will have 10 guys sitting behind 2 rabbits, ready to pounce.
Remember the first season of Survivor when Richard Hatch figured out that he could only win if he created an alliance. That became the template for all future seasons of Survivor.
I want these Olympic trials to be the running equivalent of the first season of Survivor. The year that non As, figure out that they can only do it with an alliance.
Jennings in 2000 is a good example of someone taking it out, hitting the standard and making the team.
It was also a time where there were not many good US 1500m runners.
There were not three guys good enough to beat him at that pace.
In 2004 he tried it and was smoked by Lagat, Manzano, Lomong, Leer and Webb and it was only a 3:40 result.
Now the field is even deeper. Too many quality athletes to run away from.
toro wrote:
Jennings in 2000 is a good example of someone taking it out, hitting the standard and making the team.
It was also a time where there were not many good US 1500m runners.
There were not three guys good enough to beat him at that pace.
In 2004 he tried it and was smoked by Lagat, Manzano, Lomong, Leer and Webb and it was only a 3:40 result.
Now the field is even deeper. Too many quality athletes to run away from.
Boulet made the race. He came in 11th. Gabe followed Boulet and kicked it home in the last 550m... It was a long way out, but he was able to maintain... Mostly because Boulet (followed by Gabe) gapped the field first.
Yes, following a rabbit and kicking home is a good strategy. Being the rabbit, not so much...
Hukkhuschhkcsukhcskuhcsdkcskdi wrote:
- great negotiator steps in and makes the Olympics a possibility for one of the non As, by having all of them work on an honest pace (single file, 6 changes of lead, float to back after your short stint at the front)
I would love to see option 3.
The 1500 is way too short for this scenario. For most of the first lap everyone is just jockying for position and the last lap is every man for himself.
learning from history wrote:
Hukkhuschhkcsukhcskuhcsdkcskdi wrote:- great negotiator steps in and makes the Olympics a possibility for one of the non As, by having all of them work on an honest pace (single file, 6 changes of lead, float to back after your short stint at the front)
I would love to see option 3.
The 1500 is way too short for this scenario. For most of the first lap everyone is just jockying for position and the last lap is every man for himself.
False, first guy takes 300m
Gives time for most of the other 5 to get in position
Next guy takes next 200m
First lap needs to be covered in 57 sec for the single file effect to take place.
By 400m all guys can be in place.
Next guy takes 200m
Next 2 take 150m (second lap in 57.x)
And last guy takes 100m
You have surely done that in training before
I have several times
We actually use to do it with 50m stints in the front...
Too bad no one told Kip Keino it's impossible to front run and win a 1500. He should've known a 3:34 at altitude wasn't going to happen, and just sat back in the pack.
Bad example. He was the only one that had the ability to run at that altitude (and that was 40 years ago).
Pretty much everybody in tonight's final have seasonal best within 2 seconds of each other. Not the case in that 1968 race.
Azaleas wrote:
Too bad no one told Kip Keino it's impossible to front run and win a 1500. He should've known a 3:34 at altitude wasn't going to happen, and just sat back in the pack.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWFBKdzNr98
I don't know why people keep bringing up these old and irrelevant examples like Keino and Elliott. In 1968 Keino knew there was only one guy that could beat him. He also knew that if the race came down to the last lap with Ryun he was certain to lose. He employed the only possible strategy to win the race and it turned out that everything was working in his favor - altitude, etc.
A breakaway move is a great strategy if you are the strongest, fastest guy in the field - e.g. Elliott, Webb 2004. If you are one of the slower guys it is just a suicide move.
If someone "goes for it" alone tonight
I want the following
Send that athlete's coach the link to all the US championships for the past 12 years (for education purposes). To show him that it has never worked.
Have him explain to us, why he didn't try to create an alliance
I want the embarrassment from knowledgeable fans to be bigger than the accolades that this (10th, 11th or 12th place) finisher will get from his grand mother and his co workers for being so "gutsy"...
"such a gutsy runner"
"I wish others would have the balls..."
"he really lost trying... At least he tried"
BS...
Hukkhuschhkcsukhcskuhcsdkcskdi wrote:
The 1500 is way too short for this scenario. For most of the first lap everyone is just jockying for position and the last lap is every man for himself.
False, first guy takes 300m
Gives time for most of the other 5 to get in position
Next guy takes next 200m
First lap needs to be covered in 57 sec for the single file effect to take place.
By 400m all guys can be in place.
Next guy takes 200m
Next 2 take 150m (second lap in 57.x)
And last guy takes 100m
You have surely done that in training before
I have several times
We actually use to do it with 50m stints in the front...[/quote]
Yes, I have done something similar in training but obviously the pressure cooker of an Oly trails final is a different environment. For one thing, in training there are not 6 faster and more experienced guys hanging around that will do everything possible to be in the top 3.
And while your idea of an alliance is interesting, I can't see 4-5 guys with the discipline to pull it off in this situation. For some of these guys this will be the biggest race of their life. All it takes is for one guy to jump the gun or not play their part and the strategy falls apart.
I agree that the most likely scenario is for a slow pace with an all our sprint in the end, or one guy breaking away early. It also turns out that the faster guys - Andrews, Wheating, Centro, Manzano, are known for relying on their kick. I can see Torrence trying to make a strong move with 300-400 to go and hoping only 1 or 2 guys can keep pace.
learning from history wrote:[/
For one thing, in training there are not 6 faster and more experienced guys hanging around that will do everything possible to be in the top 3.
In this particular final, we actually have at least 4 of the "fast" guys that like to hang in the back... Leaving the front quite empty...