Rupp capable of 12'45 ???

Actually, it's more like v^3 posts something that is thought-worthy and reasoned, but that he admits is provocative, and then he gets abuse hurled on him and he responds in kind. Sure, he may be wrong, but it's interesting to ponder. I'm not sure why the reactions to his original post are so strong, other than the usual that you all are (or act like) a bunch of immature teenagers. For what it's worth, ventolin, your posts have grown on me and I like what you bring to the discussion. Keep it up.As for the topic at hand, I agree with others that it isn't clear at all that Rupp hasn't sharpened (before doing more race-specific 10k training) and that his season-potential in the 1500 should therefore be much faster. We'll see.

Attention Brojos... wrote:

Please ban ventolin^3.

He's wholly incapable of civil interaction on this message board.

My physics teacher told me that if he didn't see a formula, he'd assume said answer was made up. Based on that, I'd assume that if the answer originates from a formula, said answer isn't made up?

he's run 12:58/26:48. Now he can run 12:45/26:35? I'll grant you 12:52/26:39. You have Rupp dropping 13 seconds in the 5000m and the same in the 10000m? If you have him running 12:45, then why not give him 26:30 or so? Lagat can run 12:49 this year and Rupp is not going to beat an in form Lagat. 3:34.8 is not 3:31. Teg ran 3:34/12:58.

The Insider wrote:

Why are so many of you fixated on what Rupp can run the last lap in. This has absolutely nothing to do with his PR limits. Rupp is a lot like Paula Radcliff. She couldn't out kick anyone. But she could run away from most. When was the last time we saw someone simply run away from Rupp. They out kick him, sure. But no one runs away from him. The fact is, whatever the pace is, is what he runs. He needs to get in a 5k where they are running 2:33-34 per k for us to really know what his limits are. Hopefully he'll get in a real fast race this year, and we can see what he can do when he has to hold his redline for a long time.

You have no idea what you're talking about. Rupp gets out kicked because the other guys aren't as tired. Rupp has been run away from plenty of times and has faded. This year every race he's been in hasn't been over his head but he's getting out kicked because a guy like Farah can outrun him and isn't as tired come 400 left. Lagat and Bekele could run 51.9 and 52.0 in a 12:59 race not because they have great speed (which they do) but because the pace didnt tax them.

Mrr82 wrote:You have no idea what you're talking about. Rupp gets out kicked because the other guys aren't as tired

true

but he's been in training mostly

Rupp has been run away from plenty of times and has faded

not in his outdoor races

he almost won the 1500 & only got beaten down in last 300 by mo in that 5k

This year every race he's been in hasn't been over his head but he's getting out kicked because a guy like Farah can outrun him and isn't as tired come 400 left

err...

who is claiming he is currently at level of the wc ???

Lagat and Bekele could run 51.9 and 52.0 in a 12:59 race not because they have great speed (which they do) but because the pace didnt tax them.

years ago they coud, because bernie brought likely 3'28 speed to the 5k then & kennster 12'35

neither of them can do that anymore

jjjjjjj wrote:he's run 12:58/26:48. Now he can run 12:45/26:35? I'll grant you 12:52/26:39. You have Rupp dropping 13 seconds in the 5000m and the same in the 10000m? If you have him running 12:45, then why not give him 26:30 or so? Lagat can run 12:49 this year and Rupp is not going to beat an in form Lagat. 3:34.8 is not 3:31. Teg ran 3:34/12:58.

listen, you sound confused

the ole formula bandied about is

10k = 2*5k + 1

that works very well for metronomic africans or ole guys with all the speed pounded out of them after a few 1000s of miles roadwork in their legs

& yes, off that 12'45 will -> 26'30

however, i don't believe it applies to rupp despite fantastic 26'48

i reckon that 10k was a misleader

he is a young guy for a white runner & has been mostly a 5k orientated one past few years, despite a surprisingly good 27'10+ coupla years ago

he is still, primarily a 5k guy who has just happened to show immense talent by running 26'48 off probably more 5k orientated training

( salazar admits he doesn't let him do same mileage as mo )

some proof of this was his 3'34

elite african 10k guys don't show 3'34 on the rare occasions they run 1500 ( not including kennster/geb ) - you usually expect 3'36+

for rupp to run 3'34 indicates to me that speed is there & 5k may still be his best event at present, despite 26'48

( he may stand less chance at a 5k medal than at 10k but that just means the 5k field is better than 10k one

5k may still be his best current event v clock )

that's one reason calculator offers him "only" 26'35 off 12'45 instead of 26'30

ventolin^3 wrote:

Gonna have to call BS wrote:Did you really just try to justify your, ahem, calculator with a second carefully selected data point after I pointed out how moronic it was to claim something based on a carefully selected data point?

Did you really just do that?

OMFG! I used to think that you were a clown. Now you have proven that I was far to optimistic.

HJMFC!

moron

look at these

http://paularadcliffe.com/stats/

in '02 she ran 14'31 in a championship with initial 600 of 1'51 & last 4400 of 12'40 with no pacing

in her book she states a 4'01tt

58.5/2'02.8 ->

4'00.2

5'26.2

8'22.0

14'23.4

29'59.2

3rd time lucky again you idiot

You just dig yourself deeper and deeper, huh? Do you really not understand basic concepts like statistically significant sample size and random sampling? Seriously?

Weird that someone who appears to be so completely ignorant of the most basic of mathematical concepts creates and endlessly talks about a calculator.

ventolin, have you been following Rupp's career? He is not a 5k specialist, never has been. Always a 10k guy. Anyway, 3:33, 12:47, 26:40, I think that's Rupp's "line". Those are probably lifetime PRs.

ventolin^3 wrote:

Mrr82 wrote:You have no idea what you're talking about. Rupp gets out kicked because the other guys aren't as tired

true

but he's been in training mostly

Rupp has been run away from plenty of times and has faded

not in his outdoor races

he almost won the 1500 & only got beaten down in last 300 by mo in that 5k

This year every race he's been in hasn't been over his head but he's getting out kicked because a guy like Farah can outrun him and isn't as tired come 400 left

err...

who is claiming he is currently at level of the wc ???

Lagat and Bekele could run 51.9 and 52.0 in a 12:59 race not because they have great speed (which they do) but because the pace didnt tax them.

years ago they coud, because bernie brought likely 3'28 speed to the 5k then & kennster 12'35

neither of them can do that anymore

Vent you missed the point almost entirely across the board. Point was in the past Rupp has died hard when trying to run with the best and did do because he just wasn't quite there. This year he hasn't been run away from because no race has been fast enough with the shape he's I'm. But a 329 1500 race he wouldn't be there right at the end, and a 1245 pace if ever attempted again he'd probably fade slightly before the kick.

I know bek and lagat aren't still im that shape. Again not relevant. Point was they closed I'm 51.9 not because they were fast speed wise (although it helped) but because that pace didn't tire them. The poster was ignoring the fact that getting outkicked has more to do wytg the comp not being as taxed come the last lap. Rupp can close 52 probably in a 1320 race. He has the speed just not the endurance (yet) to close that fast while running

13 flat. If he was I'm WR shape he could close I'm 52 and go 1259 as well.

Also he is mostly in training...but so is Farah and everyone else...so unsure why that matters.

Gonna have to call BS wrote:You just dig yourself deeper and deeper, huh? Do you really not understand basic concepts like statistically significant sample size and random sampling? Seriously?

Weird that someone who appears to be so completely ignorant of the most basic of mathematical concepts creates and endlessly talks about a calculator.

you are a f*cking moron

calculator works for

- man whom many consider owner of best distance record on track - komen

- 2nd best collection of 1500/mile/2k/3k/5k times ever - sief

- best non-chinese/african track distance runner in hx - paula

idiot

find me a calculator that gives better results for komen/sief/paula & i'll subscribe immediatly

or f*ck off

Ventolin, you gotta relax brother! I've gotta believe that you're working on beer #6 to react with such acidity toward these guys. Blow them off, and be vindicated later this year.

BUT, my prediction is that Rupp disappoints in London and then races in Europe shortly after and produces these types of times. He needs four more years to be ready to race with the confidence required for Olympic greatness.

ventolin, it's because you programmed your 'calculator' with data harvested from those exact three sources. no wonder it works!

i'll make a calculator for chris derrick, and i'll say look. it fits for chris derrick. Everyone else must be doinog it wrong (doing it = running = racing).

Mrr82 wrote:But a 329 1500 race he wouldn't be there right at the end

idiot

who on earth is talking about 3'29 ???

even if he came close to 3'31.99, he'd be long way behind a 3'29

i said no one has run away from him outdoors this year until mo in last 300 of a 5k

I know bek and lagat aren't still im that shape. Again not relevant

very relevant

Point was they closed I'm 51.9

kennster has never closed in 51.9

fetch it

If he was I'm WR shape he could close I'm 52 and go 1259 as well

no

komen ran 12'39 ( & has 7'20wr )

he never ran 52 in a 12'59

he never finished in a 52 in a 5k in his life

wr holder ar 5k does not guarantee 52 in a 12'59

Also he is mostly in training...but so is Farah and everyone else...so unsure why that matters.

idiot

not same training

mo was pre-selected for 5k/10k after daegu & can train however he sees fit for london

rupp has to train to get in top 3 in 10k/5k trials

they are not training the same

I don't know about the rest of you but I am so tired of ventolin's responses to anyone who doesn't agree with him.

Idiot.

Moron.

I'd take him a lot more seriously if he didn't sound like a bratty child who doesn't get her way.

i generally agree with the OP. Last year Rupp ran 13:07 a couple times, and thens started this outdoor season with a 12:58. i definitely think 12:45 should be a goal on his radar, if not at least trying to get down to 12:50 shape, which, with sharpening work could probably easily get him there. I also forgot that he ran 7:33i this past winter, which is great early shape to be in before outdoors come. It would be exciting to see him get in a fast diamond league 3k to test his wheels out at that distance. Rupp may win both the 5k and 10k at the US trials.

For heavens sake, Vento is medical doctor - not a statistician. Most doctors don't have flair for mathematics.

I think you may be just damned close to accurate here. We know he has to cap out somewhere as all runners do, but he really just had his first elite breakthroughs in the last year.

He may need a year or two more to be able to be in the mix in most every race, but he is darned close now...

OK moron,

time to pur your money where your mouth is. Straight up (no odds) what do you want to wager that Rupp goes 12:45 or under? I'll take the over.