I could see 20 years if they do everything right. Beyond that, someone will come up with something that is even cooler where people will want to spend their time.
Nutella1 wrote:
Flagpole wrote:I agree with all you say. Myspace made big mistakes, but the point is that they were HUGE at one point. Facebook is not immune to making a miscalculation at some point.
Yes and at some point they will. I think it will happen later rather than sooner. Maybe they can last 20 years...could also just be 5.
Real question - is FB a fad, or is the whole idea of "Social Media" a fad?
If you think social media is a fad...then this board is a fad as well. Any situation where technology can mediate interactions between otherwise unknown individuals is a fad.
I think the point of listing is not to cash out, but to be a magnet for others who want to be the next Mark Zuckerberg. In effect, be dominant enough so that when they see the next FB/MZ, they have enough currency (stock & cash) to buy him out and fold it into the platform.
MZ was offered $1bn for FB in 2006 and he turned it down. And this was before they had any revenues.
It is churlishly petty to think that you know more than Kleiner Perkins, AndHor, etc. This could easily turn into a $500bn company.
Flagpole wrote:
Today people enjoy reconnecting with their former flames and classmates. Might get old at some point, and I'm betting it will.
FB may easily make some huge mistakes that lead to its demise or simply be supplanted by a better way of doing things.
That said, it is incredibly naive to think that people "reconnecting with their former flames and classmates" will ever get old. It is simply human nature.
Off the Grid wrote:
Real question - is FB a fad, or is the whole idea of "Social Media" a fad?
If you think social media is a fad...then this board is a fad as well. Any situation where technology can mediate interactions between otherwise unknown individuals is a fad.
A lot of people think this stuff is new, cool, whatever. The thing is, none of it is new. It's just re-packaged. How many people on this site used rec.running? How many even know what it is?
It reminds me of the days back around 1995 when all of us who were on the internet (and we were mostly in academia) were screaming about the fact that AOL -- AOL FOR GOD'S SAKE -- was going to add their user base to "our" internet and ruin it.
What's old is new again, and facebook? Probably a fad. It will last longer than twitter, though.
I'm getting annoyed, not by the site, but by how some people act on the site. It seems they go out of their way to make excessive wall posts, add as many 'friends' as they can despite never talking to the person and the most disturbing---act as if the site controls their life and reality. Facebook is the virtual saelf, but some connect it to the real self and thus waste hours a day on the site. I like Twitter better, but some people abuse that too, maybe if the sites would do away with showing number of friends or followers than it would be more enjoyable for all rather than a phony conest of fakeness. It's funny that people can have twice as many Facebook 'friends' as me, yet have half the real friends I do. They post all day, let have no social life in reality. And for the people who think others care about what they are doing every hour---WOW. A (real) friend told me Facebook includes people who wish they had people interested in them while Twitter is for those who actually have others interested in them. Either way, it's people getting wrapped up in the fad so much that it controls their life--if you are on Facebook everyday, or even every other day, you have a problem.
hereiamlikerozay wrote:
I'm getting annoyed, not by the site, but by how some people act on the site. It seems they go out of their way to make excessive wall posts, add as many 'friends' as they can despite never talking to the person and the most disturbing---act as if the site controls their life and reality. Facebook is the virtual saelf, but some connect it to the real self and thus waste hours a day on the site. I like Twitter better, but some people abuse that too, maybe if the sites would do away with showing number of friends or followers than it would be more enjoyable for all rather than a phony conest of fakeness. It's funny that people can have twice as many Facebook 'friends' as me, yet have half the real friends I do. They post all day, let have no social life in reality. And for the people who think others care about what they are doing every hour---WOW. A (real) friend told me Facebook includes people who wish they had people interested in them while Twitter is for those who actually have others interested in them. Either way, it's people getting wrapped up in the fad so much that it controls their life--if you are on Facebook everyday, or even every other day, you have a problem.
Dude, you've got issues.
1) If you are concerned about the number of "friends" others list, whose problem is that?
2) If you are seeing lots of wall posts from folks and you think it's all phony then just delete them as friends. Problem solved.
Seriously, it sounds like you've go issues. And I don't even "like" Facebook.
I don't care about the numbers of friends/followers, I said what disturbs me is how they use the site to control/dominate reality. It's not reality. I really don't give 2 fvks, just posted what I thought the site was causing people to do, cuz I have a long lunch break. I go on the site every week, yet all I see is a bunch of useless wall posts when I only want to see important stuff--which is all lost in the excessive crap posts. My point is reality and "reality" are getting confused.
Flagpole wrote:
I could see 20 years if they do everything right. Beyond that, someone will come up with something that is even cooler where people will want to spend their time.
Facebook is no different than Google. Facebook is a fad like Google is a fad. Facebook is no longer a destination website. It is a way of communicating, like a phone or email. It will continue to evolve, but fickle consumers aren't just going to go elsewhere.
And to the guy who threatened with the WinkleVoss brothers. Are you kidding me? Google cannot even touch Facebook with Google+, but those two clowns are going to bring it crashing down?
Flagpole wrote:
Myspace made big mistakes, but the point is that they were HUGE at one point. Facebook is not immune to making a miscalculation at some point.
At it's peak, MySpace had 5% of the active users that Facebook has right now. Remember, active users are different than # of accounts.
Flagpole wrote:
someone will come up with something that is even cooler where people will want to spend their time.
Wow, you really do not understand Facebook. It is funny to see the people of LRC debate something when they have no clue what they're talking about.
hereiamlikerozay wrote:
I don't care about the numbers of friends/followers, I said what disturbs me is how they use the site to control/dominate reality. It's not reality. I really don't give 2 fvks, just posted what I thought the site was causing people to do, cuz I have a long lunch break. I go on the site every week, yet all I see is a bunch of useless wall posts when I only want to see important stuff--which is all lost in the excessive crap posts. My point is reality and "reality" are getting confused.
Like I said, if you are seeing lots of wall posts from folks and you think it's all phony then just delete them as friends. Problem solved.
Some things are funny wrote:
Got a huge chuckle out of that. Thanks for the laugh.
Let me guess, a liberal?
BRG/253 wrote:
Some things are funny wrote:Got a huge chuckle out of that. Thanks for the laugh.
Let me guess, a liberal?
You are certainly allowed to guess. This is a free country, after all.
Your guess was incorrect. Care to demonstrate your stupidity for a third time?
Passage Into India wrote:
Flagpole wrote:someone will come up with something that is even cooler where people will want to spend their time.
Wow, you really do not understand Facebook. It is funny to see the people of LRC debate something when they have no clue what they're talking about.
Mistaken. I understand it just fine. Tell me something relevant to this discussion that I don't know about Facebook. I'll bet you that you can't.
Flagpole wrote:
Mistaken. I understand it just fine. Tell me something relevant to this discussion that I don't know about Facebook. I'll bet you that you can't.
I didn't mean that to sound so unfriendly. I have just noticed that on LRC, people make huge claims that are very often wrong and/or way out in left field.
I responded b/c you seem to think that Facebook is merely a website that people go to for fun. Something that will eventually get boring and people will flock elsewhere.
As someone else mentioned, Facebook is so much more than a destination at this point. It is a way of communicating. I would never email a friend anymore. No one does. We either text or message on Facebook. Also, Facebook is how I share information. When I have a picture to share, I share it on Facebook, either to a group, a person or the public. I haven't "gone" to Facebook in months, but I use it everyday on my phone. It is how I communicate with people.
Also, consider how it works across websites when you are online. It is essentially the most trusted version of social sharing on the internet. Can you name another social sharing application or platform that is more widely used? Diquss, Open Social, etc..? None of those have the cache that Facebook has. Not even close.
Also, with almost a billion active users, it is a population of its own. New services will simply be acquired rather than build their own network. That is actually a joke in the industry. Anyone who says, "I want to be the next Facebook" is viewed as a philistine.
This is different than LRC or MySpace or Amazon. This is nebulous. This is like a shape-shifting amoeba that will continue to evolve. In fact, I'd argue that they are now leading the evolution. They are the tastemaker and they are the influencer.
Flagpole wrote:
I could see 20 years if they do everything right. Beyond that, someone will come up with something that is even cooler where people will want to spend their time.
My High School aged daughter and her friends have almost completely stopped using Facebook in the last several months. They have moved on.
At one point, people could not imagine that e-mailing would be passe. At one point Facebook was not even thought of yet. Someone else will come up with either a better way or more cool way or something to communicate, or society will change how they view and use social media. Facebook does not have a lock on being around forever.
Passage Into India wrote:
Flagpole wrote:Mistaken. I understand it just fine. Tell me something relevant to this discussion that I don't know about Facebook. I'll bet you that you can't.
I didn't mean that to sound so unfriendly. I have just noticed that on LRC, people make huge claims that are very often wrong and/or way out in left field.
I responded b/c you seem to think that Facebook is merely a website that people go to for fun. Something that will eventually get boring and people will flock elsewhere.
As someone else mentioned, Facebook is so much more than a destination at this point. It is a way of communicating. I would never email a friend anymore. No one does. We either text or message on Facebook. Also, Facebook is how I share information. When I have a picture to share, I share it on Facebook, either to a group, a person or the public. I haven't "gone" to Facebook in months, but I use it everyday on my phone. It is how I communicate with people.
Also, consider how it works across websites when you are online. It is essentially the most trusted version of social sharing on the internet. Can you name another social sharing application or platform that is more widely used? Diquss, Open Social, etc..? None of those have the cache that Facebook has. Not even close.
Also, with almost a billion active users, it is a population of its own. New services will simply be acquired rather than build their own network. That is actually a joke in the industry. Anyone who says, "I want to be the next Facebook" is viewed as a philistine.
This is different than LRC or MySpace or Amazon. This is nebulous. This is like a shape-shifting amoeba that will continue to evolve. In fact, I'd argue that they are now leading the evolution. They are the tastemaker and they are the influencer.
This in a nut shell is Facebook's #1 problem going forward. Most of their users are starting to use FB only on mobile platforms. This a huge problem because right now FB makes zero revenue from mobile visits. They have no way to monetize it.
Passage Into India wrote:
I haven't "gone" to Facebook in months, but I use it everyday on my phone. It is how I communicate with people.
Passage Into India wrote:
I would never email a friend anymore. No one does. We either text or message on Facebook.
Incorrect. I email friends. I've sent probably 15 emails to friends so far today. And they have responded to me, so they are emailing friends as well. Nice try though.
I don't email anymore ... I don't facebook anymore ...
Let me tell you about Kakao Talk. It's a great smartphone app from Korea (who is leading the way in smartphone development).
It's like texting, except you can make large group conversations with all your good friends. You can post text, smilies, photos, videos, voice recordings, games, etc. etc.
So, you get a few of your friends together in one chat and keep connected in a private manner that is not viewable by the world. There is no sharing the information with others outside that group.
And, it's real time. It's not a dinosaur like Facebook or Twitter. Your friends can see what your doing all the time instantly from a small texting application.
Everyone in South Korea uses this. Just wait until it catches on here.
I've used Kakao messenger for a few months. It's better than anything on the market right now. It's excellent for keeping groups of people from all over the world connected in real time. Also, I create separate groups for business contacts and send messages from my small business through that platform.