There are at least as many stars in the universe as there are grains of sand on all the beaches on earth

Actually 276 million.

vhncfbnkmn wrote:

1) fun fact: at an infinite number of repetitions, the probability of an event occuring must be one or zero.

Probability and guaranteed occurrence are very different things. A coin has 50% chance to land on either side, but even after an infinite amount of flips, it is entirely possible that only one side gets landed on.

Httug wrote:

vhncfbnkmn wrote:

1) fun fact: at an infinite number of repetitions, the probability of an event occuring must be one or zero.

Probability and guaranteed occurrence are very different things. A coin has 50% chance to land on either side, but even after an infinite amount of flips, it is entirely possible that only one side gets landed on.

What is the probability that after an infinite number of flips only one side has been landed on?

I am not assuming that events A and B are independent. Given the fact that life exists here, there is a nonzero probability of life in the remainder of the universe. That does not mean that it is there, but the probability is greater than 0.

We will not know for sure unless a biological sample is found.

Logical Man wrote:

Yeah france wrote:

We have information at hand outside of just making up numbers and calling them large.

We can calculate the probability of a planetary object being at a distance from a star supportive of life additionally necessary solar output and planetary mass. We also know element distribution and know that there is water outside of Earth's orbit.

In addition to quantity of stars, elemental information, existence of water, life could have sprung forward in another time period, ex. 3 billions years after the Inflationary Epoch.

"Absolutely zero idea" means that we have no information whatsoever. It is possible that life does or has existed elsewhere. I believe probable.

OK. Show me your calculations that justify the belief that any probability between zero and one is more justifiable than any other.

I'm waiting.

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Tick

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That cloud of stars is our galaxy, the Milky Way. Our solar system is on the edge of it. We hurl through an incomprehensible darkness. In cosmic terms, we are subatomic particles in a grain of sand on an infinite beach. ...I wonder what's on TV now. - Calvin and Hobbes

vhncfbnkmn wrote:

Actually 276 million.

Accepting this figure, and working from the (low-ball) estimate of 100 sextillion stars in the universe, I came up with ~2,500 cubic *miles* of sand. (It was a back-of-the-envelope calculation--apologies in advance for errors, esp. in orders of magnitude.)

I really don't know how that plays out on the planet's beaches, but 2,500 cubic miles seems like a lot. If the sand on a "typical" beach is .01 of a mile deep, and .10 of a mile "broad," then that works out to 2,500,000 miles of beach...

Which is a long-winded way of saying that the thread title's stat appears to be legit.

Think of all the grains in a handful of sand; think of all the handfuls of sand on a single beach; think of all the beaches on Earth; and realize that the number of stars in the universe is higher than the number of all those grains of sand.

Wow. Seriously.

As we look further into space we are refining the values we have of the Drake Equation. Right now, we are detecting planets around other stars, and with spectroscopy we will soon be able to detect, if they are present, the signatures of oxygen and methane molecules, both of which are highly reactive and must be replenished continuously. This will strongly suggest the presence of at least rudimentary life.

Of course, we only have our own planet as an example, and must extrapolate from the life we know. With a sample size of one, it's difficult to calculate the likelihood of life arising elsewhere. But it does evoke a sense of wonder, at least for me. Imagine knowing, for certain, that we are not alone in the Universe...it's a beautiful dream I hope we will one day know as reality.

kuf wrote:

Holy Moses wrote:

There may be an infinite number of stars and planets.

But God only chose to put life on one of them.

End of story

1) Outstanding troll post: great productivity with an equally great economy of words. Well played, sir/ma'am: 6/10.

2) "But God only chose to put life on one of them." Assuming a "God," this is actually entirely plausible. So life on all the *other* planets (that have it) would have simply arisen on its own--also completely plausible.

Life does not arise without God's say so.

God only chose to put life on one planet.

Therefore there cannot be life on any other planet.

Did you not notice where I wrote "End of story"?

You can't argue with a believer. All we need are a few assumptions that may not be logical but cannot be absolutely refuted and we hang on to our faith for dear life.

Have you shown independent events?

Independent Q wrote:

Have you shown independent events?

I am assuming that you are referring back to this note from our French friend (French are friends, not food!):

"I am not assuming that events A and B are independent. Given the fact that life exists here, there is a nonzero probability of life in the remainder of the universe. That does not mean that it is there, but the probability is greater than 0."

And also from our French friend:

"We have information at hand outside of just making up numbers and calling them large.

We can calculate the probability of a planetary object being at a distance from a star supportive of life additionally necessary solar output and planetary mass. We also know element distribution and know that there is water outside of Earth's orbit.

In addition to quantity of stars, elemental information, existence of water, life could have sprung forward in another time period, ex. 3 billions years after the Inflationary Epoch.

"Absolutely zero idea" means that we have no information whatsoever. It is possible that life does or has existed elsewhere. I believe probable."

It appears that this is a simplified appeal to the well known Drake Equation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation). N = R * fp * ne * fl * fi * fc * L. Each of these probabilities is independent.

So, to answer your question. Yes.

Now, of course I do invite our French friend to demonstrate otherwise for the probabilities that he sites. And of course we all wait with baited breath for the calculations that lead to any probability between zero and one being any more likely than any other that there is other intelligent life out there.

Here is the best way to describe the qualities of the infinite universe to somebody without causing them too much confusion. Imagine your everyday, ordinary meter stick. Now, imagine that it's divided into ten sections. Now imagine if each of those sections had a ram's horn on it that read "Snift". Think of how long it would take for each of the horns of snift to divide each of the ten parts further than from you first began.

Math Counts wrote:

Now, of course I do invite our French friend to demonstrate otherwise for the probabilities that he sites. And of course we all wait with baited breath for the calculations that lead to any probability between zero and one being any more likely than any other that there is other intelligent life out there.

"cites"

and

"bated breath" (unless you've been eating worms or something)

WHAT DO YOU PEOPLE THINK IS GOING ON?? Someday people will look back on this generation as stupidly ignorant, and arrogant for that matter. To think that we are the only living beings in the entire UNIVERSE! UNBELIEVABLE!!

pleassee wrote:

WHAT DO YOU PEOPLE THINK IS GOING ON?? Someday people will look back on this generation as stupidly ignorant, and arrogant for that matter. To think that we are the only living beings in the entire UNIVERSE! UNBELIEVABLE!!

Well, we're the only ones we *know* about.

Anything else is, at present, simple speculation.

p.n. wrote:

Math Counts wrote:

Now, of course I do invite our French friend to demonstrate otherwise for the probabilities that he sites. And of course we all wait with baited breath for the calculations that lead to any probability between zero and one being any more likely than any other that there is other intelligent life out there.

"cites"

and

"bated breath" (unless you've been eating worms or something)

Thanks. Seriously.

I never will understand folks who complain about being corrected. You have helped reduce my ignorance level by some small amount.

Thanks.

y7oi wrote:

pleassee wrote:

WHAT DO YOU PEOPLE THINK IS GOING ON?? Someday people will look back on this generation as stupidly ignorant, and arrogant for that matter. To think that we are the only living beings in the entire UNIVERSE! UNBELIEVABLE!!

Well, we're the only ones we *know* about.

Anything else is, at present, simple speculation.

This ^

Given uniform distribution (0,1] for the probability of life elsewhere. P does not equal zero because we know life exists. The CDF from (0,1] > P(no life).

Yes, in the Drake equation, the events may be independent. I am not sure about the independence of fl, fi and fc.