USA 1/2 MARATHON CHAMPIONSHIPS

To run 60:20, one has to run two 28:45 10Ks back to back, and then another kilo! That is really fast. The only guy who will get under 62 is Ritz (he has done it twice in two races), unless Meb is in terrific shape. Dobson has run 62:32 on a flat course in excellent conditions--yet he's going to improve over two minutes!? And Sell has a best of 62:39, so he'll improve a minute!? And Carlson, has he ever run under an hour for 20 K?

douglas burke wrote:

i pick ritz to win with dobson 2nd, i am surprised more people arent pickining dobson to do well. my picks.

1. ritz 60:07

2. dobson 60:11

3. carlson 1:01:35

4. sell 1:01:37

5. cabada 1:02:09

les miless wrote:

it will be a winning time of ~61 high/62, we won't see anyone go out like Hall and run for time while possibly ruining a payday

its Jan, these guys are far from being in peak shape, Championships should all be in a 2-3 month period (marathon excluded) during the summer

That's Ritz's forte under Hudson, being at his best when it matters the least.

but wasn't dobson just about equal to hall in college? and last i heard he was hall's training partner, so he must be somewhat on halls level, but not quite i would think. it is fast, but he is an olympian so he is pretty good.

also todd williams ran a little over 60 minutes for the half marathon and dobson is probably about as good as williams.

10000m 27:31.34, 15km 42:22, even the 8:14 2 mile. dobson probably matches todd wiliams at the 5000m point but they diverge. dobson better 5000m. dobson has run some 12k cross with hall in the same race and hall is much better. i could be wrong but i think dobson and hall are both 28:00 or so 10000m runners.

my last messeage said dobson better less than 5000m, todd williams better greater than 5000m. i used ">" and "<" and somehow the text was lost.

Yeah, seriously, not sure how you overlooked Alisha Williams and Kelly Liljeblad (and I am sure others as well). You are going mostly off of name recognition, which I suppose is the mark of a fan, but not one that is really paying attention.

know more than you do wrote:

At least on the women's side, you need to look at the fall US Championship results and several fine performances at other races (fall marathons). Without naming names, you've overlooked several people who are running well at the moment.

I love Kelly, but what has she done in the last 2 years? She couldn't run sub 2:47 and get a qualifier for the trials.

How about Alisha Williams? Don't just spout out names. Tell me what they have done to deserve a spot in the top 10.

I would not be at all shocked if either of these ladies finish in the top 30. Neither has even an outside chance of finishing in the top 15.

Alisha Williams:

15th at Tufts in 34:34 (ahead of your chosen Storage twins - the 2nd of whom has not proven to be anywhere near finishing in the top-10 based on her failed track season and weak performance at Club XC).

4th at Club XC (again, ahead of the Storage twins)

You are right and I was wrong, she should be in the top 20. Still not top 15.

I stick with keeping Kelly off of the list. She is light years away from her 2:32 days.

If that is the biggest fault you can find in the rankings, I will consider my picks pretty good.

You're right: making two Olympic teams, coming in ninth in an Olympic marathon, making two World Track teams, third in the World National Cross, two time US X-C champion, US 10k road champion--that's not being ready when it counts. And by the way, the race this Sunday is for the US Half-Marathon championship--so I think "this counts."

the fcuk wrote:

les miless wrote:

it will be a winning time of ~61 high/62, we won't see anyone go out like Hall and run for time while possibly ruining a payday

its Jan, these guys are far from being in peak shape, Championships should all be in a 2-3 month period (marathon excluded) during the summer

That's Ritz's forte under Hudson, being at his best when it matters the least.

I agree, your picks are still pretty good and it would be great to see Sara Slattery dip under 1:10 for the win. There are some other changes that I personally would make, especially since at least a couple of your picks for the top-30 aren't even racing, but why nitpick runners 20-40.

No, no, you're right, that's a great way to detract from Ritz's record at the WC. I've never even heard of "World National Cross" so you got me there!

Kelly finished 3rd at the 10 Mile Championship in 57:06. Seriously, look at the US 20K, 8K, 10 Mile, and XC Club Championships.

hmmmm wrote:

at least a couple of your picks for the top-30 aren't even racing, but why nitpick runners 20-40.

Sorry. I was just going by the entry list. You have some inside info that I was unaware of.

know more than you do wrote:

Kelly finished 3rd at the 10 Mile Championship in 57:06.

Who did she beat?

4 3 10004 Nicole Hagobian 33 F Hadley MA 57:20

5 1 10005 Annie Bersagel 25 F Oslo 57:34

6 2 10007 Sopagna Eap 27 F Johns Island SC 58:17

7 4 10014 Melisa Christian 31 F Dallas TX 58:20

8 5 10012 Melissa Todd 33 F Kansas City MO 58:50

9 6 10027 Brandy Erholtz 31 F Bailey CO 58:55

You forgot:

10 3 10061 Alissa McKaig 22F Ft Wayne IN 59:09

I am glad to see Meb back. I heard he was healthy so he should definitely be in the mix.

Annie Bersagel won this race 2 years ago, when it was in the summer

Keane was better and younger wrote:

Who did she beat?

4 3 10004 Nicole Hagobian 33 F Hadley MA 57:20

5 1 10005 Annie Bersagel 25 F Oslo 57:34

6 2 10007 Sopagna Eap 27 F Johns Island SC 58:17

7 4 10014 Melisa Christian 31 F Dallas TX 58:20

8 5 10012 Melissa Todd 33 F Kansas City MO 58:50

9 6 10027 Brandy Erholtz 31 F Bailey CO 58:55

Meb is the one of the toughest guys out there if you ask me...he had a stress fracture while running in the 2007 Marathon Trials and managed to finish in the top 10. With only 7 weeks of training and some injuries he manages to run 28:39 at the 10K trials. Don't overlook this guy. He will be back on top in no time. Go Meb!